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← Archive · Radar

Report archive · 10.09.2026

INDICIA Radar

Case No. 20260910 · 10.09.2026

Everyone will see the $81,000 call wall gone this morningthe asymmetry is that the calls didn't leave, they sit in the next two expiries.

Case #20260910 · 10.09.2026 04:55 UTC · BTC $78,315 / ETH $2,477 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic

📅YESTERDAY

The 09.09 expiry settled at 08:00 UTC. BTC settled at $79,224 — 0.35% from max pain, and the market-maker break-even corridor held: both measurements on the side of the levels. ETH settled at $2,511 — 1.2% above its $2,480 max pain, so it didn't match, but the corridor held.
The code closed two whale cases: a BTC condor expiring 09.09 — about +$8k for the whale — and a two-day put diagonal, about +$4.6k. Details in the paid part.

⚡THE GIST

• Yesterday's thesis of the BTC whales turning long didn't survive the night: over the evening the top Hyperliquid whales built almost $130M of longs and had unwound them by morning — the short tilt is 3.3 times against 3.0 yesterday, and the weekly window shows a shift toward short again.
• The BTC call wall left $81,000 together with the weekly expiry: the nearest ceiling is now a thin wall at $80,500, while the Deribit book holds the accumulated $81,000 calls under the next two expiries.
• The spot ETF funds sold for a second day, and harder: $120M left the BTC funds on Wednesday against $47M on Tuesday.
• Insurance is getting pricier for a third day: BTC two-day vol sits at the 65th percentile of its own hourly history since February against the 50th yesterday — already pricier than usual.
• Verdict — break: the split between the whales in the two assets is gone, both lean short, and the gap between the crowd and the whales has come off its monthly maximum.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: standing position, $0 on the day, +$9,956 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$90,719 at a 5% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$8,578. Table at the bottom.

🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas

Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. The day was the loudest of the week, and all the noise was in BTC.
Yesterday afternoon the top whales were building BTC longs so fast that the short-over-long tilt compressed from 3.0 times to 1.7 by evening. Overnight the build was unwound: by morning the tilt is 3.3 times again, deeper than yesterday. The weekly window that yesterday showed the biggest shift toward long in a month today shows a shift toward short, accelerating over the last day. In ETH the short has been building all week, but over the day the pace faded almost to zero (how we track whale positions).
Overleveraged whales under watch: 55, same as yesterday, 60% of them standing long. None is close to a margin call.

Arena two — Deribit options. Two separate whale positions here, and they look in different directions.
The first — quiet accumulation in small lots outside the blocks. In BTC the calls at $81,000 remain the week's biggest footprint, but it's now concentrated in the two nearest expiries — yesterday's settlement took part of it away. In ETH the calls at two strikes above the market still weigh twice as much as the puts beneath it.
The second — block trades (what a block is). Over two days the snapshot recognised 23 structures in BTC against 12 yesterday — the block market came back to life. The most visible: a call spread that gains while BTC doesn't run past the far strike, and a straddle sold — a position on calm just above the price. In ETH — a call diagonal on 1,000 contracts, a position on a climb toward the far strike. The two new cases of the day both run across two expiries; legs and premiums are in the paid part.

Arena three — money at the exchange border. Cash comes in even faster, coins go out, and almost none of what leaves heads to exchanges.
The "bridge" channel is USDC cash: over seven days $71.0M came in and $3.8M went out — almost twenty times more entered than left.
The "Unit" channel is the coins themselves: in BTC withdrawals ran three times the deposits ($16.8M against $5.7M); in ETH the inflow was three times the outflow.
Where the withdrawals go: only $3.6M of the $31.6M withdrawn went to exchange addresses — the rest to players from the registry. Border snapshot 10.09, 04:54 UTC.

This is positioning, not a direction forecast.

🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses

What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position.
On Wednesday 09.09 the funds sold for a second day running, and harder: $120M left the BTC funds against $47M on Tuesday. The sellers were Ark's ARKB, Grayscale's GBTC and BlackRock's IBIT.
The week to 09.09 still stays positive at $840M against $253M the week before — five trading days did that, with the long weekend inside the window.
ETH carries the opposite sign: $35M went into the funds on Wednesday, bought through BlackRock's ETHB and ETHA; the week is $130M against $628M the week before.
This confirms the whales: a second day of selling in the BTC funds is the side where the whales stand; but the weekly flow is still positive, so for now this is a day, not a trend.

What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book.
Our fear-and-greed index stands at 82 out of 100 against 83 yesterday — extreme greed that's been giving way a little for a third day.
The price of insurance is rising for a third day running: BTC two-day vol sits at the 65th percentile of its own hourly history since February against the 50th yesterday — protection now costs more than in two thirds of the hours on record. A week ago it was cheaper than in three quarters of them.
This confirms the whales: the book pays more and more for protection against a fall — the same direction the perps lean.

What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position.
BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.008% in eight-hour terms against +0.010% yesterday — longs still pay shorts, a little less (what funding is). The BTC futures basis compressed by half: the term price pulled in toward spot.
This contradicts the whales: the leveraged crowd still stands against the whales' short and pays for it.

What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales.
On Bybit perps 58% of BTC accounts stand long against 57% yesterday, ETH 67%.
The gap between the crowd and the whales in BTC compressed to 28.3 points against 31.4 yesterday and came off its monthly maximum to the 70th percentile — not because retail changed its mind, but because the whales briefly moved toward it with the afternoon longs. The gap itself is structural; the event is its motion, and today the motion is back the other way.
This camp is silent: two days at the maximum ended with no consequences.

Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market.
Among the top Hyperliquid whales, no forced closures over the day — yesterday there was one. On OKX swaps $360k was liquidated, almost all longs; that's 8% of the week's volume — an even background, no acceleration.
This camp is silent: spot slipped a percent, and no stress came with it.

Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.

🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer

The classic altseason index stands at 35.0 out of 100 — bitcoin-season territory; over the day it fell five points from 40.0, eating the whole week's climb.
Our barometer watches money, not prices, and counts it from the Hyperliquid perp registry. Alts' share of open interest is 42.7% — $4.70B of the whole market's $10.99B, less than yesterday.
Hot funding sits in 40% of contracts against 38% yesterday — after two days of cooling it's standing still.
Retail in the top-10 coins stands 68.0% long; the hottest are DOGE and XRP, both near 78%.
Whales in alts are structurally short: 36.0% long across $1.35B of positions, the biggest of them in HYPE. That gap is permanent; the signal is in its CHANGE — and over the day it moved a point toward long.
Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason

⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY

break ⚡ — the construct changed over the day: yesterday's split between the whales in the two assets is gone because its main evidence is gone — the weekly shift of the BTC whales toward long was unwound in a single night, and now both assets lean short. The witnesses regrouped: the funds and insurance stand with the whales, the crowd came off its maximum and went silent, and only funding is left standing against them.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a claim that BTC goes down. A day of building and unwinding more than a hundred million of longs speaks of nervousness among the big players, not of direction; a break in the construct means yesterday's picture is stale — not that a new one is already confirmed.

🔒In today's full RADAR:

— one whale flipped from short to long at high leverage over the day, while another added to a short with a two-percent buffer to liquidation — with sizes and who it is;
— case #1063: a BTC structure across two expiries running to the end of autumn, for which a whale collected almost a full bitcoin of premium — legs, net premium and payoff profile.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent

💎DEEP

🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠

Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 03:16 UTC. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.

The market's biggest loss. ETH SHORT $234.6M, leverage 5×, entry $2,263, uPnL −$20.0M, liquidation at $3,527 — 43% above spot. Account $110.3M. Over the day the position slimmed a little from $238.1M, and the loss compressed by $1.7M along with spot.
The same address in BTC. SHORT $159.4M, leverage 5×, entry $72,282, uPnL −$12.3M, liquidation at $127,811 (+63%) — unchanged over the day.
A second address with the same pattern. ETH SHORT $112.1M and BTC SHORT $72.0M, both at 5× leverage, uPnL −$14.4M and −$10.7M, liquidations at $3,781 and $144,080 on a $61.3M account. Together the two addresses carry $57.4M of unrealised loss against $62.2M yesterday: spot slipped, and the loss compressed.
The third big short shrank. ETH SHORT $77.3M at 15× leverage, entry $2,198, uPnL −$8.6M, liquidation at $3,981 (+61%), account $53.3M — over the day the address took 2,204 ETH off the short, the first trim in a week.
The market's biggest gain. ETH LONG $49.5M, leverage only 4×, entry $1,936, uPnL +$10.8M, liquidation at $1,043 — 58% below spot, account $12.1M. Next to it a long of $74.9M at 20×, entry $2,134, uPnL +$10.3M, liquidation at $1,756.
The risky side. ETH LONG $96.7M at 25× leverage with liquidation at $2,386 — only 4% under spot against 5% yesterday, account $6.4M.
Flipped. BTC LONG $35.2M at 40× leverage, entry $78,751, liquidation at $75,548 (−4%), account $1.9M — a week ago this address stood SHORT, and yesterday it was still short $28.3M. No public label.
Nearest to triggering. BTC SHORT $39.2M at 30× leverage, entry $78,300, liquidation at $79,915 — 2% above spot, account $2.4M; yesterday the position was $23.6M — they added. BTC SHORT $27.7M at 40×, entry $76,902, liquidation at $80,283 (+2%), account $1.0M — yesterday it was $43.6M with a 1% buffer: the short was cut and the buffer grew. Self-signed, not identification.
A market maker's long. BTC LONG $23.6M at 20×, entry $78,189, liquidation far away, account $31.1M — 108 BTC cut over the day; an address with a public label, the name is in 🔬.

Block structures in the snapshot — two new cases, both from the Deribit book.
Case #1063 · BTC put diagonal across two autumn expiries: 45 puts at $77,000 bought for 30.10.2026, 45 puts at $78,000 sold for 27.11.2026 — 90 contracts, entered at $78,291. Net premium about 0.88 BTC received (≈$69k): the November put costs more than the October one. The whale collects premium for time and carries the risk if price ends up deep under $77,000 by the end of November. Rare.
$77 000$78 000спот$69k−$24k

Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-10-30. Кит отримав $69k премії. Беззбитковості в показаному діапазоні немає.

Case #1064 · BTC call diagonal on two days: 25 calls at $78,500 bought for 10.09.2026, 25 calls at $79,000 sold for 12.09.2026 — 50 contracts, entered at $78,291. Net premium about 0.20 BTC received (≈$15k). The first leg settles today at 08:00 UTC. Rare.
$78 500$79 000спот$28k−$15k
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-09-10. Кит отримав $15k премії. Беззбитковості в показаному діапазоні немає.

Case #1061 · BTC call ratio spread: 30 calls at $80,000 bought for 30.10.2026, 50 calls at $82,000 sold for 25.09.2026 — 80 contracts, entered at $78,758, second day in play. Net premium about 0.72 BTC paid (≈$57k).
$80 000$82 000спот$3k−$57k
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-09-25. Кит заплатив $57k премії. Беззбитковість: $81 893 і $82 161.

Case #1059 · BTC strangle sold: 100 puts at $72,000 and 100 calls at $86,000 sold, expiry 18.09.2026 — 200 contracts, entered at $78,310, third day in play. Net premium about 0.70 BTC received (≈$55k): the whale collects premium for price staying inside $72,000–$86,000 until 18.09.
$72 000$86 000спот$55k−$715k
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-09-18. Кит отримав $55k премії. Беззбитковість: $71 452 і $86 548.

Case #948 · ETH condor at $1,700/$1,900/$2,800/$3,000, size 11,500, entered at $2,462, expiry 25.09.2026 — sixteenth day in play. Net premium about 36.8 ETH received (≈$91k): the whale is paid for price staying between $1,900 and $2,800 — it sold the inner strikes.
$1 700$1 900$2 800$3 000спот$91k−$509k
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-09-25. Кит отримав $91k премії. Беззбитковість: $1 867 і $2 830.

Closed over the day: case #1050, a BTC condor at $77,500/$79,500/$80,500/$82,500, 200 contracts expiring 09.09 — the code credited about +$8k to the whale: the $79,224 settlement came in under the inner $79,500–$80,500 corridor, but the premium received, about 0.57 BTC, covered the loss on the sold lower leg. Case #1062, a BTC put diagonal on two days (25 puts at $79,500 bought for 09.09, 25 puts at $80,000 sold for 10.09) — the first leg has settled, the code estimates about +$4.6k; the second leg settles today. Case #546, an ETH strangle at $1,000/$4,000 expiring 25.06.2027 — sixty-seventh day in play, unchanged.
ΔOI over the week, both ways: BTC +10,731 calls at $81,000 (86% in 11.09 and 12.09), +4,484 at $82,000 and +2,089 at $86,000 (11 expiries). ETH: +20,648 calls at $2,800 (89% for 18.09) and +10,883 at $2,600 against +9,298 puts at $2,400.

🔬Who exactly

Both of the biggest shorts are Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): two addresses of one house, ETH and BTC on each. Over the day the house trimmed ETH slightly on the first address; together $57.4M of unrealised loss against $62.2M yesterday.
The third big ETH short is Fasanara Capital: $77.3M, 15× leverage, uPnL −$8.6M on a $53.3M account; over the day it took 2,204 ETH off — the first trim of the short in a week — and at the same time topped up cash (below).
The 20× BTC long with a market-maker label is Wintermute: $23.6M, 108 BTC cut over the day. The same label sits on the addresses where BTC has been leaving through the coin channel all week.
The risky 25× ETH long with a 4% buffer is Machi Big Brother.
The 40× BTC short with a 2% buffer is self-signed "DoshiAtoll" — yesterday it held $43.6M with a 1% buffer, over the day it shrank to $27.7M. That's a nick, not identification.
Money by address. A whale from the registry topped up margin: over the week the Fasanara Capital address brought in $22.7M USDC in six tranches — two of $5.0M, one of $3.7M and three of $3.0M, the last two within the past day — and it's the same address that took part of its ETH short off over that same day: cash arrived, the position shrank. Another address from the players' registry, with no public label, holds a $7.0M deposit in two tranches ($4.0M and $3.0M). The coin channel keeps handing BTC to Wintermute in $2.8M tranches — eight in a week now, two of them in the past day; BTC worth $3.97M came back in via Binance.

🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬

Perps. BTC: net $306M short (long $132M against short $438M); over 7 days a $20M shift toward short, and all of it in the last day: yesterday's weekly window showed $101M toward long, today's shows short, because the intraday build of longs to $258M at 17:16 UTC was unwound to $121M by 01:16. ETH: net $313M short (long $311M against $623M); $85M toward short over 7 days, only $4M over the day — the pace is fading.
Gamma flip. BTC $70,820 — up 4,645 over the week, the fastest in a month; ETH $2,298 — down 54 (what the flip is). When the flip and the walls creep after the price, the market makers are giving up the level; when they stand still, the level is real and the market makers hold it.
The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is slightly negative again: IV 40.2 against realised HV 40.3, up 1.0 over 7 days — the biggest weekly gain in the premium since late August. Options and the actual move have levelled.
Calendar. The nearest expiry, 10.09, moved its max pain point by +1,500 over the week — the flow is dragging the consensus up despite the slip in spot.
Changing of the guard. Over the week the whales assembled 139 confirmed structures: 35 bullish, 31 bearish, 20 on volatility, 53 on range — against 157 yesterday: old ones roll off faster than new ones are added, the fourth day running. The biggest — a call diagonal on 6,000 ETH. The lean of the structures is mixed.

🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠

BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book. The market-maker break-even corridor is $78,000–$80,000 — unchanged over the day, spot in its lower half; by our study across 372 expiries price stays inside such a corridor in roughly 81% of cases (what the corridor is). Below, a put wall at $77,500 on 381 contracts against 436 yesterday — the floor lost a few contracts. Above, the ceiling changed: yesterday's $81,000 call wall on 17,599 contracts left with the settled expiry, and the nearest one is now $80,500 on 1,059 contracts — thin; the accumulated $81,000 calls sit in the 11.09 and 12.09 expiries and return as the wall as soon as those become the nearest. Max pain $79,000, unchanged (what max pain is).
ETH levels. The corridor is $2,460–$2,520 against $2,440–$2,520 yesterday — the floor rose by 20. Max pain $2,500 against $2,480. The put wall is $2,460 on 2,335 contracts; the call wall moved out to $2,600 and weighs 49,403 contracts — yesterday's wall at $2,500 with 77,264 has settled.
The nearest expiry, 10.09. BTC: max pain $79,000 on the combined book of two exchanges (Deribit $79,000 · Bybit $78,750), put $77,500 on 263 contracts, call $80,500 on 394 — a thin expiry on both sides. ETH: max pain $2,490, put $2,460 on 1,503, call $2,600 on 3,303. Settlement at 08:00 UTC.
The quarterly, 25.09. BTC: max pain $72,000, and both put and call are densest at $70,000 (8,831 and 10,959 contracts) — this expiry holds 41% of all BTC OI. ETH: max pain $2,150, put $2,100 on 38,573, call $3,000 on 42,375.
Fuel. Above the market $76.5M of short positions in the $79,892–82,242 band against $45.5M yesterday; below the market $65.1M of longs in the $74,409–76,759 band against $32.8M — the fuel doubled on both sides over the day, the trace of yesterday's build and unwind. In ETH the long fuel under the market is $111.9M again, in the $2,350–2,424 band against $31.4M yesterday — the band that dispersed the day before has gathered back; above the market $24.7M of shorts. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move.
Gamma vacuum. In BTC it's dense above spot; empty only below, at $72,000–$73,000. In ETH it's empty below at $2,350–$2,400 — exactly where the long fuel lies.
Stress test ±2%. At −2% ($76,725) price reaches the put wall — the densest protection, the move gets braked. At +2% ($79,856) price is still under the call walls — the ceiling holds the move.
OI flow. BTC put/call: month 0.57 · week 0.56 · now 0.54 — the book is slowly disarming against a fall (what put/call is).
Two options books. BTC put/call 0.54 on Deribit against 1.13 on Bybit; ETH 0.63 against 0.81. We don't know who owns the Bybit book, so this is neither "whales" nor "retail" — just a second book with a different lean.
IV by tenor. BTC 2d P42/C48 · 8d P42/C42 · 15d P40/C40, percentiles since February 65th, 53rd and 49th against 50th, 51st and 48th yesterday — the near end is getting pricier. ETH 2d P51/C54 · 8d P52/C53 · 15d P52/C53, percentiles 51st, 42nd and 38th against 35th, 42nd and 37th. BTC DVOL 40.1 against 30-day realised 32.7 — a premium of +7.4, the widest in a week (what the premium is).

💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠

The code's verdicts for yesterday. The set from 07.09 is closed: "The corridor holds" — partially, BTC spent 79% of the time inside the band and finished at $78,960; "Burn-up through the short fuel" — not confirmed, the high was $79,638 against a $81,100 trigger; "Slide into the long fuel" — not confirmed, the low was $78,300 against $77,800. The set from 08.09 runs out today at 11:37 UTC, the set from 09.09 stands until tomorrow. The week since 03.09: 21 scenarios — 4 confirmed, 1 partially, 9 not, 1 cancelled at the boundary, 6 in progress. Whole history: corridor 6 of 15 plus 3 partial, burn-up 5 of 19, slide into the long fuel 2 of 8 — the directional types run worse than a coin toss, which is why their odds sit below the corridor's.
The corridor holds — 40%. ⏱ 2 days, to 12.09. BTC stays inside the $78,000–$80,000 band. Cancellation level: a touch of $77,500.
Burn-up through the short fuel — 28%. ⏱ 2 days, to 12.09. Trigger: a touch of $79,900 — the bottom of the band holding the short positions. Cancellation level: a touch of $77,500.
Slide into the long fuel — 32%. ⏱ 2 days, to 12.09. Trigger: a touch of $76,750 — the top of the long-fuel band, under the put wall. Cancellation level: a touch of $79,900.
This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.

🔭WHAT TO WATCH

• The $81,000 calls in the 11.09 and 12.09 expiries — more than 10 thousand contracts: as soon as those expiries become the nearest, the ceiling returns to $81,000 and a move up gets damped there again (💠).
• BTC long fuel of $65.1M in the $74,409–76,759 band — doubled over the day; its top, under the put wall, is the level the code uses to count the slide (🔬).
• BTC gamma flip at $70,820 — up the fastest in a month over the week; we're watching whether it continues (🔬).

🆓TAIL

📊POLYGON

(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)

⚙️Pendulum · Wheel (standing position, real prices)

+$0 on the day · +$9,956 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals ($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal                    trades   win    last     total  since
Dust Strategy V2              39    5% −$1,125  +$90,719  21.03
Dust Strategy V1              32    9% −$1,125  +$35,906  20.03
Volatility Convergence V3     24   42%   −$426  +$13,706  26.05
Skew 2.0 V2                   38   37%   +$315  +$11,762  26.05
Fear Flash V2                 22   32%   −$418   +$3,023  16.05

Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$8,578 · Wheel Trail V6 −$7,565 · Wheel Trail V7 −$5,944 — three variants of one signal hunt a reversal and pay for every attempt while the trend continues; all three deepened their loss over the day, and V7 pushed Against the Current out of the bottom three. No new closes in the top-5 over the day. The most profitable signal — Dust Strategy V2 — wins only 5% of its 39 trades. Win rate isn't money.

📅PUBLIC LEDGER

(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 372 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor held the settlement price 303 times — 81%. Yesterday's 09.09 expiry held in both assets; the BTC expiry the day before was the exception. Decision: we lean on the corridor, knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. An exact match with the settlement in only 34% of those same 372 expiries. Yesterday BTC matched ($79,224 against $79,500, a 0.35% gap), ETH didn't match, parting from it by 1.2%. Decision: we don't chase max pain — it's a landmark of the niche, not a magnet.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 49% of expiries, the put wall in 42%: roughly a coin toss. Today's BTC ceiling on the nearest expiry is thin on both sides. Decision: a wall without an expiry and a contract count isn't a level to us; with them, it's only the place where dealer hedging brakes a move — it doesn't stop it.
Whale structures by type (our Deribit registry, 707 closed cases). Condor: 35 closed, 71% matched by strikes, yet −$115k in total — yesterday's #1050 added about +$8k. Risk reversal: 68 closed, 56% matched, −$1.84M in total. Bull call spread: 28 closed, 43% matched, +$460k in total. All closed cases together: −$5.9M for the whales. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$9,956 since 11.05, at $0 on the day for the third day running — no positions in the market. The Dust Strategy: 71 trades, 7% winners, +$126,625 in total, and the 30-day losing streak continues. The Wheel Trail: three variants in the bottom three, −$22.6k across 161 trades at 32% winners for all variants together, and the loss deepened over the day. Decision: we publish both tallies daily with the same denominator; we keep the Dust for the money despite its win rate, and the Wheel Trail is the first thing we look at in every review.

📏Scale calibrator

• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 82 out of 100. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself. BTC two-day vol — 65th percentile of the hourly history since February, eight-day — 53rd, fifteen-day — 49th: the near end already costs more than in most hours on record, the further ones sit mid-range.
• Which way protection tilts. BTC skew is absent from today's snapshot — the source returned no number for the fourth day running, so we're not calibrating the tilt today. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/

Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.

Radar is assembled automatically from live Deribit / Hyperliquid / OKX data · time-stamped snapshot. A journal of the system's decisions, not investment advice. © 2026 INDICIA DESK.

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