Case files · full registry — open · 256 cases · snapshot 2026-07-16 17:00 UTC
The complete registry of BTC and ETH market hypotheses, tested on our own Deribit and Hyperliquid data. Every case's criterion is frozen before the run; the verdict — confirmed, extended or rejected — is delivered in public. The registry is maintained by code; entries are never edited after the fact. Full materials — criteria, numbers, instruments — live in restricted dossiers. Unfamiliar terms are in the plain-language glossary.
confirmed and active work · full dossiers — by clearance
theories that did not survive the data. Closed cases are public.
every case, without exception · criteria, numbers and instruments — in restricted dossiers
| state | hypothesis (theme) | type | asset | details |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 confirmed | Can market euphoria prophesy its own ending? | trade | BTC/ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When the market panic-dumps Ether — does a bounce follow? | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 in progress | When the options-price skew suddenly flips — is it time to bet on a big move? | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 in progress | Can you profit by fading the crowd at the very moment of general euphoria? | trade | BTC/ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What pays better in the Bitcoin wheel: taking wins early or patiently waiting to the end? | trade | BTC | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When the signal says “buy downside insurance” — should you take the cheaper, farther one? ⇄ | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | A jump in the price of fear: does it say where the market goes — or only that things will get hot? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When the price of fear suddenly jumps — can you profit from the scare itself? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | The price of fear jumped: which big-move bet is the better buy — nearer or farther? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Do the cost of leverage and the price of fear behave differently at the turn of the month? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When short-dated fear is priced above long-dated — is a bigger move ahead? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When expected fear and actual swings diverge — is there an edge hiding in the gap? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | The wheel plus permanent crash insurance — does it cut the deepest drawdowns? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When is crash insurance cheapest — and does it lose its protective power for it? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Can you trust the exchange's prices in the final hours before options settle? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Two option types on one exchange count money differently — a detail that breaks calculations. | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Before testing any ideas — does the research pipeline itself work correctly? | anti-rule | BTC | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What happens to the price of fear right after the daily Bitcoin options settlement? | signal | BTC | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Does the price of fear on Ether deflate every time after the daily options settlement? | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Does the price of fear deflate the same in Asia's morning, London's day and New York's evening? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What happens to the price of fear on Friday evening as America closes the week? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What happens to the price of fear while London trades? ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What happens to the price of fear in the first hour after the American exchanges open? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What does the price of fear do right after options settle — fall or rise? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Where is the line beyond which historical data simply doesn't exist — and why does it matter for every one of our tests? | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Does the market live by the calendar: one mood at month-end, another at the month's open? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When the cost of leverage goes off the scale — does it hint which way the market will swing? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What happens to the price of fear on weekends, when markets are supposedly asleep? ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Does Monday on the crypto market really behave differently from the rest of the week? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | How do the big weekly options settlements differ from the routine daily ones? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Can the classic formula be trusted when it prices the shortest options? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | A sudden spike in the price of fear — does it foreshadow a big market move in the days ahead? | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Does a more patient version of our best big-move bet win? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | The exchange offers only a coarse grid of insurance strikes — does that step eat the wheel's edge? | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | A market thrust has a typical length — can you guess the moment it runs out of breath? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | How much life is left in a move after the first strong leg — and when does it run out of breath? ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Do our volatility-buying signals deliver a move deeper than usual? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | A steep vertical spike upward — a launch to new highs or the prelude to a reversal? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Fading euphoria with a pure bet on the fall: does the idea survive the real costs of holding it? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When the market runs too fast — can you catch the moment the thrust runs out of breath? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | An options signal on Ether can be played with different instruments — which one is the cleanest? ⇄ | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When upside bets get pricier faster than insurance — where does Ether actually head? ⇄ | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What do the extremes of the price of fear say: when does the market doze off, and when does it coil to jump? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | A strange omen: greed in Ether options revs up — and fear arrives on its heels? ⇄ | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Research signals on the options market's mood moved from the lab to the live proving ground. | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When are options worth buying and when worth selling — is there a simple map of those moments? | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Near versus far options: which skew of theirs best foretells tomorrow's move? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | An unusual tilt in the option-price skew across tenors — does it herald a restless tomorrow? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When the fear premium inflates to its limit — does that hint a turning point is near? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | The wheel: do the shortest trades really earn more than the longer ones? | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What in the wheel is worth tuning, and what is better left untouched? | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Frequent small wins or rare big ones — what actually feeds the wheel? | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | We traced every live trade hour by hour — when is truly the best time to exit? | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When near options suddenly become pricier than far ones — what does that portend for the market? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When protection against extreme scenarios gets pricier — should you brace for a real storm? | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Can the shape of the options “smile” predict the strength of future swings? | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Morning or afternoon: when is it better to sell options in the wheel? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Which of our signals will quietly break the moment the market changes its temper? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Does volatility keep its own schedule — hours when it's better to buy it, or to sell? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Buying cheap crash insurance while the market is calm — madness or profit? ⇄ | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What did the multi-year audit of cheap crash insurance show? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | When and how to buy crash insurance without overpaying for years? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Cheap crash insurance: can it protect the portfolio and earn its own keep at the same time? ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What happens to the market in the weeks after crash insurance has already paid out? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Do fees and spreads eat the entire gain from crash insurance? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Can cheap crash insurance protect the wheel without eating all of its income? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Is it worth topping up crash insurance exactly when the market feels its calmest? | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | How far back must you look to know the market is truly quiet? ⇄ | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Crash insurance is now under live watch: every purchase is logged at real prices. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Can a cluster of crashes in a row masquerade as a magic trading signal? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | Is the paper model lying to us about how often the wheel manages to lock in its profit? | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What happens when several independent storm harbingers light up at once? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | A bet on Ether's upside: a handful of cheap tickets or a clever zero-cost construction — and when is which appropriate? ⇄ | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟢 confirmed | What do cheap far options really cost once you pay live market prices? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Is insurance cheapness better measured by its own price than by the general fear gauge? | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | When the option-price skew lurches to one side — does it hint at the market's next direction? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | When perpetuals get too expensive or too cheap against the regular price — does that hint at the future? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Will our signals survive if we swap the general fear barometer for sharper instruments? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | One signal — many ways to play it: which insurance variants made the cut? ⇄ | research | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | What forecasts the storm better: the general fear barometer or its detailed components? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Which side of the options market gets pricier first — and what does that say about price direction? ⇄ | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | A sharp burst of open positions — a hint of where price goes, or only of how hard? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | A bet on a big move within a few weeks: when does it feed you, and when does it quietly burn money? | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Where exactly does the fear premium live — and is it paid the same on near and far options? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Long candle wicks call for catching the reversal — can a trend filter weed out the falling knives? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does the max pain magnet work on its own — or only where the big money is parked? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does price drift anywhere after options settle, when the max pain level was heavily loaded? ⇄ | signal | BTC | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | If Ether froze exactly at max pain into settlement — what wakes up in the market next? | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Do the “magnet” levels pull price on settlement day — and does it hold up on fresh data? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Stack several working wheel upgrades together — do you get the sum of their gains? | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does the expiry magnet work the same in a calm market and in a storm? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | When big open positions cluster near the max pain level — does Bitcoin rise over the next day? ⇄ | signal | BTC | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | If price has glued itself to the settlement level — is it worth delaying the insurance sale? ⇄ | trade | BTC | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Settlement-day regularities: do they still work the next day, or fade fast? | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Are the trading AI's marks really smarter than a tossed coin? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does the post-settlement price drift depend on whether the market is calm or on edge? ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does the hidden shuffle of positions before the morning settlement betray where the market goes within a day? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | We re-tested the old findings on fear-price deflation on fresh data — what survived? | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does price get pulled back to the “center of gravity” of big option positions when it strays too far? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | A long lull in the market — does a big move really follow it? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Is the fear in option prices always richer than the market's actual swings? | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | The market has been quiet too long — does that mean a big move is already near? | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | A long lower candle wick as a bounce omen — does the classic survive its meeting with fees? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | A candle with a long wick — an old traders' omen: does it really herald a reversal? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Betting on the burst after a lull: jump out at the first chance or calmly sit to the end? ⇄ | anti-rule | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | When a move has run out of breath — is that already an invitation to step in against it? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | When the fall turns panic-fast — does the market bounce afterwards? ⇄ | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | The rule “ride the move until it fades” — testing the exit on live prices. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does the link between expected and realized swings hint where the market goes over several days? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | How much leverage is still safe when you trade against the market and it can snap upward? ⇄ | anti-rule | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | You bought a bet on a big move — when do you let it go: grab the first profit or hold to the end? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | When both expected and realized swings sit at the edge — does the market know what comes next? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Do open positions see the news before the price does — and is it always so? | anti-rule | BTC | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Can you accumulate coins more cleverly than by simply spinning the classic wheel? | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Is there a weekend moment when options are systematically cheaper — and when do they get pricey again? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | The first honest review: how did our live strategies survive a month of collapse? ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Do near and far options live by different weekend rhythms of the price of fear? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Rich smile wings — buy the storm; cheap — sell the quiet: does this simple matrix work? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | The options market's morning wave under the microscope: myths about spreads and dead flows. | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | How many beautiful strategies survive once you count at real buy-and-sell prices? | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Why did the bot's calendar-bet farm quietly bleed — bad luck or a built-in defect? ⇄ | research | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does the market leave an options “fingerprint” days before a reversal? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does smart money slip into cheap lottery options on the eve of big events? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Can you sell the market's “quiet” more safely by covering the bet with protective wings? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does the crowd betray its direction by how quotes press on the option's official price? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | If option buyers outnumber sellers — will the market itself follow them? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does an independent system with different instruments confirm what ours see? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Is a burst of activity in far options really the footprint of someone who knows more? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | When downside insurance suddenly gets pricier — does the crowd know something you don't see? ⇄ | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | A lottery ticket on the New Year market: a far-dated bet on a strong move either way. | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | When willing traders quietly vanish from the market — is that a harbinger of a storm? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Do the market makers' positions decide whether the market sleeps or storms? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Can the machines' positioning in Bitcoin explain Ether's moves better than Ether's own options? ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Are the “paper” prices in the wheel's math deceiving us compared with real trades? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Which crash insurance covers the wheel best — and how much is it worth paying for it? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | At the moment of general panic — can a cheap upside bet catch the quick bounce? ⇄ | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does the same quiet-market trick that saves downside insurance work for upside bets? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does a working insurance against a sharp rally even exist? We went through every possible construction. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Where does buying options actually pay off — and where are you just paying the seller for your own fear? ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Buying crash insurance when it's quiet and already drifting lower — the better moment, or an illusion? | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Buying the coin when it's deep at the bottom — a generous reward or a trap? | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Does today's market mood — calm or storm — say anything solid about tomorrow? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | A grand cull of trading ideas: how many survive an honest test on the data? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | How honest is the price the exchange paints, and what does it hide about real trades? ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | A sudden wave of insurance buying on Ether — a harbinger of a strong move, or just noise? | anti-rule | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | Which of our strategies earn in both storm and calm — and which are heroes of one weather only? ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| 🟡 extended | A portrait of the market's temper: how differently it accelerates upward and breaks downward. ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | When the market is panic-buying crash protection — is that a safe moment to sell volatility? | anti-rule | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | When the exchange force-closes traders' positions — should you saddle that wave and ride along? | trade | BTC/ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | The whales lean to one side — should you follow them the next day? | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Is it dangerous to sell upside bets when a mountain of forced buyers hangs over the market? | anti-rule | BTC/ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | When the cost of leverage diverges across exchanges — does that expose the overheated one? | signal | BTC/ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ on hold | Can you profit from the odds gap between the prediction market and the options exchange? | trade | BTC/ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | The biggest whales suddenly line up on the same side — is it profitable to simply follow them? | trade | BTC/ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | When near options suddenly cost more than far ones — is that the panic after which the market comes back to life? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | How often does the market offer a good moment to buy cheap protection against a rare catastrophe? ⇄ | research | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Option-position “walls” shift before settlement — do they point where price will go? | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Not a hypothesis but the foundation: how we set up round-the-clock market data collection for every test. | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Not a hypothesis but a snapshot: where our wheel bot stood at that moment and what it was waiting for. | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Not a hypothesis but a chronicle: how our data collector broke — and how we fixed it. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | The heavier the position “magnet” at the key price — the stronger it pulls the market? | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Price broke out of the market makers' corridor — the start of a trend or a false thrust? | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Before Ether's settlement someone quietly stockpiles downside insurance — do they know something? | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Selling a bet on a big move a week ahead — profit, or an illusion of paper prices? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Does a single option tenor give a sharper alarm than the overall fear index? ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | What's better at the end of a trade: simply close the position or rebuild it on the fly? | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | When the move runs out of breath — is rebuilding the bet on the fly better than simply closing it? ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Exit a long bet in one move, or gently, minding the market's mood? Not tested yet. ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Who stockpiles insurance on Ether before a Fed meeting — whales or a frightened crowd? ⇄ | research | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Does the prediction market guess crypto's move before crypto itself? ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ◻ queued | Rebuilding a position on the fly looked great on paper — time to test it on live prices. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Does a slightly longer life save cheap lottery tickets on a big move? Spoiler: it didn't. ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Does the Asian open leave its mark on the price of fear? Turns out — no. | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Buying crash insurance exactly when the market got scared — proved no better than a routine entry. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The star signal on a fear spike met real prices — and did not survive the meeting. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The fear-price gap between the two main coins looked tradable — but it doesn't snap back like clockwork. | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A clever ladder of sold insurance was meant to rescue the position — and only made it worse. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | An old finding about direction after an options-price flip did not survive an honest re-test. ⇄ | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Extreme panic or greed in option prices should herald a reversal — they don't. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Does the US close rattle the price of fear in crypto? Turns out — no. | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Would a longer horizon rescue the big-move bet — the hope did not come true. ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Pushing the wheel's ceiling higher so as not to clip the upside — sounded logical, turned out worse. | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | On quiet days the temptation to rev the wheel on cheap options is big — and misleading. | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A “smart” skip of the wheel's bridge leg once the premium had covered everything lost to the simple rule. | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The open-position “magnet” seemed to damp the price of fear — turns out the gauge was reading something else. ⇄ | signal | BTC | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Does the price of fear rise within hours after the routine morning settlement? The test said no. | signal | BTC | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A slide into settlement seemed to rev up the price of fear — under the loupe the effect melted away. | signal | BTC | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ extended | A slide into settlement seemed to weigh on the price of fear for another day — a sharper version replaced this one. | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The closer price froze to max pain, the stronger the next move? The pretty ladder didn't hold. ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | We thought the weekly expiry crushes the price of fear far harder than an ordinary day — not confirmed. | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A long streak of same-colour candles — a sign the move will continue? Turned out: no. | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Does price get pulled toward round numbers into the daily close? No magnet was found. | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The legend of a special London hour in the fear market turned out to be empty. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A “signal” read from the prices of downside insurance and upside bets near the current price turned out to be a mathematical illusion. ⇄ | anti-rule | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | An options scheme of “stable income” turned out dead on live prices. | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The fashionable trend filter screens out losing trades — but brings no money on its own. ⇄ | anti-rule | BTC | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ extended | A long bet on movement plus regular “rent collection” on top — a version that did not survive live prices. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ extended | Selling twice as much of one wing for income — an idea displaced by a better version. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ extended | The clever rolls of an “income” options scheme looked workable at first — then it all fell apart. ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A strategy that shone on synthetic data met real prices — and did not survive. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | It seemed the longer the lull, the stronger the burst to follow. Proved an illusion. ⇄ | anti-rule | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A deep dip under the price “magnet” promised a near-guaranteed bounce — the promise proved empty. | anti-rule | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The worry that our exit rule is too twitchy and gives away profit did not hold up. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The move-fatigue omen is great at saying “get out” — but failed as an invitation to step in against the crowd. ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Can market makers' positions lull the market to sleep — a fine theory that failed the test. ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | It feels like the recent trend hints at tomorrow's direction — for the wheel that proved an illusion. | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Tilting the wheel by the crowd's mood — euphoria or panic — turned out to be a road to nowhere. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Fitting the wheel to the trend looked like an obvious upgrade — the market disagreed. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Keeping part of the cash in reserve “for the dip” sounds wise — it only hurt the wheel. | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Selling options both ways at once for double premium — the account couldn't take it. | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Can the rare but painful tail of volatility selling be tamed? It could not. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | We searched for an instrument that sees a big crash coming — and none was up to the task. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Catching the post-euphoria reversal with downside insurance proved pricier than the simpler route. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Does a patient entry into the bet after a panic spike save it? Waiting did not help. | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Selling a bet on movement “at peak fear” after a flow spike — the peak turned out to be a mirage. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A sudden rush of buyers into far options looked like a signal — entry costs ate all the gain. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The imbalance between buyers' and sellers' orders seems to whisper direction — honest cost accounting mutes it. | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A calendar trick was meant to make a big-move bet cheaper — and made it pricier instead. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The “volatility pressure” filter was meant to protect option sellers — and didn't cope. | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Switching on volatility selling only once the premium has “already covered everything” — the mechanism works the other way around. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The whale bundle “insurance on Ether + upside bet on Bitcoin” turned out not to be what it seemed. | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | We tried to revive faded signals by viewing them from a new angle — no resurrection happened. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The dream of closing both legs of a New Year lottery bet in profit turned out to be just that — a dream. | research | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Several ideas on the Ether-to-Bitcoin ratio — and not one survived the test. | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The signal from the shape of the options “smile” worked faithfully — until the market changed its temper. ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The legend that price gets “pulled” toward max pain before settlement did not survive its meeting with the data. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Bitcoin twitches — Ether catches up within minutes? That echo proved a myth. ⇄ | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | We hoped to shield the wheel by reacting to the storm — the shield came too late. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | When Bitcoin shakes, buying insurance on Ether looked like a clever move — the data buried the cleverness. ⇄ | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Taking profit on crash insurance early seemed smart — and proved a mistake. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A clever composite filter for buying insurance could not beat the simple rule. ⇄ | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Insurance against a sharp melt-up sounds logical, but paying for it proved pointless. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A few red weeks in a row — “so the next one is green”? The statistics did not back the omen. | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | In the week before expiry price supposedly drifts to max pain. The magnet failed the test. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Selling the panic at the bottom of a crash sounds beautiful — but the plan failed the test. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Bailing out of crash insurance as soon as the panic faded — proved worse than patience. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Locking in the insurance win and buying a new one lower seemed smart, but simply holding won. | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Can a clever exit catch the peak of an upside bet? Simple holding won. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Entering a position in slices to get a better price — no benefit was found. | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Giving the wheel more room to ride the upside only made it worse. | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Trim the crash insurance once the market has already fallen deep? The data said: don't you dare. | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A second layer of “just in case” insurance in calm weeks only burned money. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A cheap lottery bet on the bounce from the bottom looked genius — yet the cheapest ticket lost. | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | We hunted for an extra alarm bell for buying insurance — it turned out mute. | anti-rule | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | “Fresh stablecoins are fuel for the next rally” — a beautiful theory that did not survive testing. | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | “Altcoin season” as a compass for Ether versus Bitcoin — a compass that points to yesterday's wind. | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Buy when everyone is afraid? The fear and greed index showed the opposite. | signal | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Guessing who is stronger tomorrow — Ether or Bitcoin — proved close to a coin flip. | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | We blended fear, greed and altcoin fashion into one gauge — the blend gave no edge. | research | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | The market makers' quotes seemed to whisper where price would go — the whisper turned out to be plain noise. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Do prediction markets see the future before the exchange — or just echo it with a lag? | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Chase the fall further or catch the bounce after a crash week — neither idea survived the test. | trade | ETH | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Polymarket bets seemed to see the future before the exchange. In truth they only catch up. ⇄ | anti-rule | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | After a liquidation cascade the market looked like easy prey — yet every way to grab it failed. ⇄ | trade | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | A grand audit of the legends about price magnets and walls before expiry — most of the legends crumbled. ⇄ | research | both | 🔒 dossier |
| ⚫ rejected | Does a big liquidation day tell you where price goes tomorrow? We checked — it doesn't. ⇄ | signal | both | 🔒 dossier |
open — the case theme and the verdict · in the dossier — the frozen criterion, numbers, instrument, methodology
Every case opens with a frozen criterion — an exact rule fixed before the run. The criteria themselves are stored in restricted dossiers with the freeze date: a dossier buyer can see the rule stood before the result, not fitted to it. Sources: our own Deribit options archive, Hyperliquid maps and events, the trade flow, the system's forward journal (the execution model is conservative — live returns run below the modelled ones). Verdicts: confirmed (the burden of proof is met) · extended (holds under conditions — an asset or a horizon) · rejected · queued. Rejected cases are published right beside the confirmed ones — hiding failures is, in our view, the industry's main vice. Entries are never edited. The registry holds 256 market cases; infrastructure notes are not part of it. The sample spans a few months of a mostly falling market — the statuses age honestly.
The priority of upcoming tests will be set by the community — voting opens soon in @indiciadesk. The vote picks what gets tested; the verdict is delivered by the data.
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A journal of the system's decisions, not investment advice. Past frequencies do not guarantee the future. © 2026 INDICIA DESK.