Case files · full registry — open · 256 cases · snapshot 2026-07-31 08:28 UTC

Research case files

The complete registry of BTC and ETH market hypotheses, tested on our own Deribit and Hyperliquid data. Every case's criterion is frozen before the run; the verdict — confirmed, extended or rejected — is delivered in public. The registry is maintained by code; entries are never edited after the fact. Full materials — criteria, numbers, instruments — live in restricted dossiers. Unfamiliar terms are in the plain-language glossary.

256

Cases on file. 72 confirmed, 85 closed — in public.
Every case carries a criterion frozen before the run and a reasoned verdict. 73 hold only under conditions — marked 🟡. The research lineage is traced in 59% of cases. Full materials live in the dossiers, by clearance.

🟢 on assignment
confirmed / in progress

🟡 conditional
works only under conditions

◻ in the queue
awaiting testing

⚫ graveyard
rejected in the open

Research protocol:

Pre-registration — the exact rule is frozen before the run and never adjusted to fit the result.
Burden of proof — until the bar is cleared, a case keeps the status "in progress", with no inflated claims.
Full registry — every case is published, including the 85 rejected ones. There is no cherry-picking.
Multiplicity control — when many tests run in parallel, some results win by pure luck; that is why rejected cases are published right beside the confirmed ones.

🟢 On assignment

confirmed and active work · full dossiers — by clearance

🟢Confirmed

A sharp spike in the "price of fear" → a big market move

🔒 Dossier — by clearance

🟢Confirmed

When the crowd turns euphoric too fast — a bet on the reversal

🔒 Dossier — by clearance

🟢Confirmed

The options footprint of "smart money" on Ether

🔒 Dossier — by clearance

🟢Confirmed

Buying far "insurance" puts in the quiet — that is alpha

🔒 Dossier — by clearance

🟢Confirmed

Extreme perpetual funding → a predictable move

🔒 Dossier — by clearance

⚫ Graveyard

theories that did not survive the data. Closed cases are public.

⚫Rejected

Does price get pulled toward "max pain" before expiry?

⚫Rejected

Does the "price of fear" tilt at the main strike catch direction?

⚫Rejected

Is stablecoin growth the "dry powder" of the next rally?

⚫Rejected

"Buy when everyone is afraid" — does the fear and greed index work?

⚫Rejected

Does a drop in "Bitcoin dominance" launch altseason?

⚫Rejected

Several identical candles in a row — will the trend continue?

⚫Rejected

Is price pulled toward round levels at the daily close?

⚫Rejected

Can a big crash be seen in advance?

⚫Rejected

Insuring against a sharp rally by buying calls — does it pay?

⚫Rejected

The weekly expiry crushes volatility much harder — can you earn on that?

🟡Extended the investigation

13 ideas at once — how many survive?

🟡Extended the investigation

Does the market makers' position (gamma) rule volatility?

🟡Extended the investigation

Does open interest lead price?

Full registry — 256 cases

every case, without exception · criteria, numbers and instruments — in restricted dossiers

state asset type

state	hypothesis (theme)	type	asset	details
🟢 confirmed	Can market euphoria prophesy its own ending?	trade	BTC/ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When the market panic-dumps Ether — does a bounce follow?	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 in progress	When the options-price skew suddenly flips — is it time to bet on a big move?	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 in progress	Can you profit by fading the crowd at the very moment of general euphoria?	trade	BTC/ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What pays better in the Bitcoin wheel: taking wins early or patiently waiting to the end?	trade	BTC	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When the signal says “buy downside insurance” — should you take the cheaper, farther one? ⇄	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	A jump in the price of fear: does it say where the market goes — or only that things will get hot? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When the price of fear suddenly jumps — can you profit from the scare itself? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	The price of fear jumped: which big-move bet is the better buy — nearer or farther? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Do the cost of leverage and the price of fear behave differently at the turn of the month?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When short-dated fear is priced above long-dated — is a bigger move ahead?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When expected fear and actual swings diverge — is there an edge hiding in the gap? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	The wheel plus permanent crash insurance — does it cut the deepest drawdowns? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When is crash insurance cheapest — and does it lose its protective power for it? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Can you trust the exchange's prices in the final hours before options settle? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Two option types on one exchange count money differently — a detail that breaks calculations.	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Before testing any ideas — does the research pipeline itself work correctly?	anti-rule	BTC	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What happens to the price of fear right after the daily Bitcoin options settlement?	signal	BTC	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Does the price of fear on Ether deflate every time after the daily options settlement?	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Does the price of fear deflate the same in Asia's morning, London's day and New York's evening? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What happens to the price of fear on Friday evening as America closes the week? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What happens to the price of fear while London trades? ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What happens to the price of fear in the first hour after the American exchanges open? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What does the price of fear do right after options settle — fall or rise? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Where is the line beyond which historical data simply doesn't exist — and why does it matter for every one of our tests?	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Does the market live by the calendar: one mood at month-end, another at the month's open?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When the cost of leverage goes off the scale — does it hint which way the market will swing? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What happens to the price of fear on weekends, when markets are supposedly asleep? ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Does Monday on the crypto market really behave differently from the rest of the week? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	How do the big weekly options settlements differ from the routine daily ones? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Can the classic formula be trusted when it prices the shortest options? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	A sudden spike in the price of fear — does it foreshadow a big market move in the days ahead?	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Does a more patient version of our best big-move bet win? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	The exchange offers only a coarse grid of insurance strikes — does that step eat the wheel's edge?	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	A market thrust has a typical length — can you guess the moment it runs out of breath? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	How much life is left in a move after the first strong leg — and when does it run out of breath? ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Do our volatility-buying signals deliver a move deeper than usual?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	A steep vertical spike upward — a launch to new highs or the prelude to a reversal? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Fading euphoria with a pure bet on the fall: does the idea survive the real costs of holding it? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When the market runs too fast — can you catch the moment the thrust runs out of breath? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	An options signal on Ether can be played with different instruments — which one is the cleanest? ⇄	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When upside bets get pricier faster than insurance — where does Ether actually head? ⇄	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What do the extremes of the price of fear say: when does the market doze off, and when does it coil to jump? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	A strange omen: greed in Ether options revs up — and fear arrives on its heels? ⇄	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Research signals on the options market's mood moved from the lab to the live proving ground.	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When are options worth buying and when worth selling — is there a simple map of those moments?	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Near versus far options: which skew of theirs best foretells tomorrow's move? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	An unusual tilt in the option-price skew across tenors — does it herald a restless tomorrow? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When the fear premium inflates to its limit — does that hint a turning point is near?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	The wheel: do the shortest trades really earn more than the longer ones?	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What in the wheel is worth tuning, and what is better left untouched?	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Frequent small wins or rare big ones — what actually feeds the wheel?	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	We traced every live trade hour by hour — when is truly the best time to exit?	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When near options suddenly become pricier than far ones — what does that portend for the market?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When protection against extreme scenarios gets pricier — should you brace for a real storm?	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Can the shape of the options “smile” predict the strength of future swings?	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Morning or afternoon: when is it better to sell options in the wheel? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Which of our signals will quietly break the moment the market changes its temper? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Does volatility keep its own schedule — hours when it's better to buy it, or to sell?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Buying cheap crash insurance while the market is calm — madness or profit? ⇄	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What did the multi-year audit of cheap crash insurance show? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	When and how to buy crash insurance without overpaying for years? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Cheap crash insurance: can it protect the portfolio and earn its own keep at the same time? ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What happens to the market in the weeks after crash insurance has already paid out? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Do fees and spreads eat the entire gain from crash insurance? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Can cheap crash insurance protect the wheel without eating all of its income? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Is it worth topping up crash insurance exactly when the market feels its calmest?	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	How far back must you look to know the market is truly quiet? ⇄	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Crash insurance is now under live watch: every purchase is logged at real prices. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Can a cluster of crashes in a row masquerade as a magic trading signal? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	Is the paper model lying to us about how often the wheel manages to lock in its profit?	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What happens when several independent storm harbingers light up at once?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	A bet on Ether's upside: a handful of cheap tickets or a clever zero-cost construction — and when is which appropriate? ⇄	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟢 confirmed	What do cheap far options really cost once you pay live market prices? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Is insurance cheapness better measured by its own price than by the general fear gauge?	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	When the option-price skew lurches to one side — does it hint at the market's next direction? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	When perpetuals get too expensive or too cheap against the regular price — does that hint at the future? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Will our signals survive if we swap the general fear barometer for sharper instruments? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	One signal — many ways to play it: which insurance variants made the cut? ⇄	research	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	What forecasts the storm better: the general fear barometer or its detailed components?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Which side of the options market gets pricier first — and what does that say about price direction? ⇄	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	A sharp burst of open positions — a hint of where price goes, or only of how hard? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	A bet on a big move within a few weeks: when does it feed you, and when does it quietly burn money?	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Where exactly does the fear premium live — and is it paid the same on near and far options? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Long candle wicks call for catching the reversal — can a trend filter weed out the falling knives? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does the max pain magnet work on its own — or only where the big money is parked?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does price drift anywhere after options settle, when the max pain level was heavily loaded? ⇄	signal	BTC	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	If Ether froze exactly at max pain into settlement — what wakes up in the market next?	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Do the “magnet” levels pull price on settlement day — and does it hold up on fresh data? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Stack several working wheel upgrades together — do you get the sum of their gains?	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does the expiry magnet work the same in a calm market and in a storm? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	When big open positions cluster near the max pain level — does Bitcoin rise over the next day? ⇄	signal	BTC	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	If price has glued itself to the settlement level — is it worth delaying the insurance sale? ⇄	trade	BTC	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Settlement-day regularities: do they still work the next day, or fade fast?	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Are the trading AI's marks really smarter than a tossed coin? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does the post-settlement price drift depend on whether the market is calm or on edge? ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does the hidden shuffle of positions before the morning settlement betray where the market goes within a day?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	We re-tested the old findings on fear-price deflation on fresh data — what survived?	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does price get pulled back to the “center of gravity” of big option positions when it strays too far?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	A long lull in the market — does a big move really follow it? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Is the fear in option prices always richer than the market's actual swings?	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	The market has been quiet too long — does that mean a big move is already near?	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	A long lower candle wick as a bounce omen — does the classic survive its meeting with fees? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	A candle with a long wick — an old traders' omen: does it really herald a reversal? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Betting on the burst after a lull: jump out at the first chance or calmly sit to the end? ⇄	anti-rule	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	When a move has run out of breath — is that already an invitation to step in against it? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	When the fall turns panic-fast — does the market bounce afterwards? ⇄	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	The rule “ride the move until it fades” — testing the exit on live prices. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does the link between expected and realized swings hint where the market goes over several days? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	How much leverage is still safe when you trade against the market and it can snap upward? ⇄	anti-rule	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	You bought a bet on a big move — when do you let it go: grab the first profit or hold to the end? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	When both expected and realized swings sit at the edge — does the market know what comes next? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Do open positions see the news before the price does — and is it always so?	anti-rule	BTC	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Can you accumulate coins more cleverly than by simply spinning the classic wheel?	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Is there a weekend moment when options are systematically cheaper — and when do they get pricey again? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	The first honest review: how did our live strategies survive a month of collapse? ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Do near and far options live by different weekend rhythms of the price of fear? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Rich smile wings — buy the storm; cheap — sell the quiet: does this simple matrix work? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	The options market's morning wave under the microscope: myths about spreads and dead flows.	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	How many beautiful strategies survive once you count at real buy-and-sell prices?	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Why did the bot's calendar-bet farm quietly bleed — bad luck or a built-in defect? ⇄	research	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does the market leave an options “fingerprint” days before a reversal?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does smart money slip into cheap lottery options on the eve of big events? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Can you sell the market's “quiet” more safely by covering the bet with protective wings? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does the crowd betray its direction by how quotes press on the option's official price? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	If option buyers outnumber sellers — will the market itself follow them? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does an independent system with different instruments confirm what ours see? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Is a burst of activity in far options really the footprint of someone who knows more?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	When downside insurance suddenly gets pricier — does the crowd know something you don't see? ⇄	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	A lottery ticket on the New Year market: a far-dated bet on a strong move either way.	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	When willing traders quietly vanish from the market — is that a harbinger of a storm?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Do the market makers' positions decide whether the market sleeps or storms?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Can the machines' positioning in Bitcoin explain Ether's moves better than Ether's own options? ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Are the “paper” prices in the wheel's math deceiving us compared with real trades? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Which crash insurance covers the wheel best — and how much is it worth paying for it? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	At the moment of general panic — can a cheap upside bet catch the quick bounce? ⇄	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does the same quiet-market trick that saves downside insurance work for upside bets? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does a working insurance against a sharp rally even exist? We went through every possible construction. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Where does buying options actually pay off — and where are you just paying the seller for your own fear? ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Buying crash insurance when it's quiet and already drifting lower — the better moment, or an illusion?	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Buying the coin when it's deep at the bottom — a generous reward or a trap?	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Does today's market mood — calm or storm — say anything solid about tomorrow? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	A grand cull of trading ideas: how many survive an honest test on the data? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	How honest is the price the exchange paints, and what does it hide about real trades? ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	A sudden wave of insurance buying on Ether — a harbinger of a strong move, or just noise?	anti-rule	ETH	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	Which of our strategies earn in both storm and calm — and which are heroes of one weather only? ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
🟡 extended	A portrait of the market's temper: how differently it accelerates upward and breaks downward. ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	When the market is panic-buying crash protection — is that a safe moment to sell volatility?	anti-rule	ETH	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	When the exchange force-closes traders' positions — should you saddle that wave and ride along?	trade	BTC/ETH	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	The whales lean to one side — should you follow them the next day?	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Is it dangerous to sell upside bets when a mountain of forced buyers hangs over the market?	anti-rule	BTC/ETH	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	When the cost of leverage diverges across exchanges — does that expose the overheated one?	signal	BTC/ETH	🔒 dossier
◻ on hold	Can you profit from the odds gap between the prediction market and the options exchange?	trade	BTC/ETH	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	The biggest whales suddenly line up on the same side — is it profitable to simply follow them?	trade	BTC/ETH	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	When near options suddenly cost more than far ones — is that the panic after which the market comes back to life?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	How often does the market offer a good moment to buy cheap protection against a rare catastrophe? ⇄	research	ETH	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Option-position “walls” shift before settlement — do they point where price will go?	signal	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Not a hypothesis but the foundation: how we set up round-the-clock market data collection for every test.	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Not a hypothesis but a snapshot: where our wheel bot stood at that moment and what it was waiting for.	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Not a hypothesis but a chronicle: how our data collector broke — and how we fixed it. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	The heavier the position “magnet” at the key price — the stronger it pulls the market?	research	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Price broke out of the market makers' corridor — the start of a trend or a false thrust?	research	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Before Ether's settlement someone quietly stockpiles downside insurance — do they know something?	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Selling a bet on a big move a week ahead — profit, or an illusion of paper prices? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Does a single option tenor give a sharper alarm than the overall fear index? ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	What's better at the end of a trade: simply close the position or rebuild it on the fly?	research	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	When the move runs out of breath — is rebuilding the bet on the fly better than simply closing it? ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Exit a long bet in one move, or gently, minding the market's mood? Not tested yet. ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Who stockpiles insurance on Ether before a Fed meeting — whales or a frightened crowd? ⇄	research	ETH	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Does the prediction market guess crypto's move before crypto itself? ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
◻ queued	Rebuilding a position on the fly looked great on paper — time to test it on live prices. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Does a slightly longer life save cheap lottery tickets on a big move? Spoiler: it didn't. ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Does the Asian open leave its mark on the price of fear? Turns out — no.	research	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Buying crash insurance exactly when the market got scared — proved no better than a routine entry. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The star signal on a fear spike met real prices — and did not survive the meeting. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The fear-price gap between the two main coins looked tradable — but it doesn't snap back like clockwork.	signal	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A clever ladder of sold insurance was meant to rescue the position — and only made it worse. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	An old finding about direction after an options-price flip did not survive an honest re-test. ⇄	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Extreme panic or greed in option prices should herald a reversal — they don't. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Does the US close rattle the price of fear in crypto? Turns out — no.	signal	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Would a longer horizon rescue the big-move bet — the hope did not come true. ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Pushing the wheel's ceiling higher so as not to clip the upside — sounded logical, turned out worse.	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	On quiet days the temptation to rev the wheel on cheap options is big — and misleading.	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A “smart” skip of the wheel's bridge leg once the premium had covered everything lost to the simple rule.	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The open-position “magnet” seemed to damp the price of fear — turns out the gauge was reading something else. ⇄	signal	BTC	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Does the price of fear rise within hours after the routine morning settlement? The test said no.	signal	BTC	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A slide into settlement seemed to rev up the price of fear — under the loupe the effect melted away.	signal	BTC	🔒 dossier
⚫ extended	A slide into settlement seemed to weigh on the price of fear for another day — a sharper version replaced this one.	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The closer price froze to max pain, the stronger the next move? The pretty ladder didn't hold. ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	We thought the weekly expiry crushes the price of fear far harder than an ordinary day — not confirmed.	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A long streak of same-colour candles — a sign the move will continue? Turned out: no.	signal	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Does price get pulled toward round numbers into the daily close? No magnet was found.	signal	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The legend of a special London hour in the fear market turned out to be empty. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A “signal” read from the prices of downside insurance and upside bets near the current price turned out to be a mathematical illusion. ⇄	anti-rule	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	An options scheme of “stable income” turned out dead on live prices.	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The fashionable trend filter screens out losing trades — but brings no money on its own. ⇄	anti-rule	BTC	🔒 dossier
⚫ extended	A long bet on movement plus regular “rent collection” on top — a version that did not survive live prices. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ extended	Selling twice as much of one wing for income — an idea displaced by a better version. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ extended	The clever rolls of an “income” options scheme looked workable at first — then it all fell apart. ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A strategy that shone on synthetic data met real prices — and did not survive. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	It seemed the longer the lull, the stronger the burst to follow. Proved an illusion. ⇄	anti-rule	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A deep dip under the price “magnet” promised a near-guaranteed bounce — the promise proved empty.	anti-rule	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The worry that our exit rule is too twitchy and gives away profit did not hold up. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The move-fatigue omen is great at saying “get out” — but failed as an invitation to step in against the crowd. ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Can market makers' positions lull the market to sleep — a fine theory that failed the test. ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	It feels like the recent trend hints at tomorrow's direction — for the wheel that proved an illusion.	research	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Tilting the wheel by the crowd's mood — euphoria or panic — turned out to be a road to nowhere. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Fitting the wheel to the trend looked like an obvious upgrade — the market disagreed. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Keeping part of the cash in reserve “for the dip” sounds wise — it only hurt the wheel.	research	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Selling options both ways at once for double premium — the account couldn't take it.	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Can the rare but painful tail of volatility selling be tamed? It could not. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	We searched for an instrument that sees a big crash coming — and none was up to the task. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Catching the post-euphoria reversal with downside insurance proved pricier than the simpler route. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Does a patient entry into the bet after a panic spike save it? Waiting did not help.	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Selling a bet on movement “at peak fear” after a flow spike — the peak turned out to be a mirage. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A sudden rush of buyers into far options looked like a signal — entry costs ate all the gain. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The imbalance between buyers' and sellers' orders seems to whisper direction — honest cost accounting mutes it.	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A calendar trick was meant to make a big-move bet cheaper — and made it pricier instead. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The “volatility pressure” filter was meant to protect option sellers — and didn't cope.	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Switching on volatility selling only once the premium has “already covered everything” — the mechanism works the other way around. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The whale bundle “insurance on Ether + upside bet on Bitcoin” turned out not to be what it seemed.	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	We tried to revive faded signals by viewing them from a new angle — no resurrection happened. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The dream of closing both legs of a New Year lottery bet in profit turned out to be just that — a dream.	research	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Several ideas on the Ether-to-Bitcoin ratio — and not one survived the test.	signal	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The signal from the shape of the options “smile” worked faithfully — until the market changed its temper. ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The legend that price gets “pulled” toward max pain before settlement did not survive its meeting with the data. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Bitcoin twitches — Ether catches up within minutes? That echo proved a myth. ⇄	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	We hoped to shield the wheel by reacting to the storm — the shield came too late. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	When Bitcoin shakes, buying insurance on Ether looked like a clever move — the data buried the cleverness. ⇄	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Taking profit on crash insurance early seemed smart — and proved a mistake. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A clever composite filter for buying insurance could not beat the simple rule. ⇄	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Insurance against a sharp melt-up sounds logical, but paying for it proved pointless. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A few red weeks in a row — “so the next one is green”? The statistics did not back the omen.	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	In the week before expiry price supposedly drifts to max pain. The magnet failed the test. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Selling the panic at the bottom of a crash sounds beautiful — but the plan failed the test. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Bailing out of crash insurance as soon as the panic faded — proved worse than patience. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Locking in the insurance win and buying a new one lower seemed smart, but simply holding won.	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Can a clever exit catch the peak of an upside bet? Simple holding won. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Entering a position in slices to get a better price — no benefit was found.	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Giving the wheel more room to ride the upside only made it worse.	research	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Trim the crash insurance once the market has already fallen deep? The data said: don't you dare.	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A second layer of “just in case” insurance in calm weeks only burned money. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A cheap lottery bet on the bounce from the bottom looked genius — yet the cheapest ticket lost.	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	We hunted for an extra alarm bell for buying insurance — it turned out mute.	anti-rule	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	“Fresh stablecoins are fuel for the next rally” — a beautiful theory that did not survive testing.	signal	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	“Altcoin season” as a compass for Ether versus Bitcoin — a compass that points to yesterday's wind.	signal	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Buy when everyone is afraid? The fear and greed index showed the opposite.	signal	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Guessing who is stronger tomorrow — Ether or Bitcoin — proved close to a coin flip.	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	We blended fear, greed and altcoin fashion into one gauge — the blend gave no edge.	research	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	The market makers' quotes seemed to whisper where price would go — the whisper turned out to be plain noise. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Do prediction markets see the future before the exchange — or just echo it with a lag?	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Chase the fall further or catch the bounce after a crash week — neither idea survived the test.	trade	ETH	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Polymarket bets seemed to see the future before the exchange. In truth they only catch up. ⇄	anti-rule	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	After a liquidation cascade the market looked like easy prey — yet every way to grab it failed. ⇄	trade	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	A grand audit of the legends about price magnets and walls before expiry — most of the legends crumbled. ⇄	research	both	🔒 dossier
⚫ rejected	Does a big liquidation day tell you where price goes tomorrow? We checked — it doesn't. ⇄	signal	both	🔒 dossier

Clearance

open — the case theme and the verdict · in the dossier — the frozen criterion, numbers, instrument, methodology

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Methodology

Every case opens with a frozen criterion — an exact rule fixed before the run. The criteria themselves are stored in restricted dossiers with the freeze date: a dossier buyer can see the rule stood before the result, not fitted to it. Sources: our own Deribit options archive, Hyperliquid maps and events, the trade flow, the system's forward journal (the execution model is conservative — live returns run below the modelled ones). Verdicts: confirmed (the burden of proof is met) · extended (holds under conditions — an asset or a horizon) · rejected · queued. Rejected cases are published right beside the confirmed ones — hiding failures is, in our view, the industry's main vice. Entries are never edited. The registry holds 256 market cases; infrastructure notes are not part of it. The sample spans a few months of a mostly falling market — the statuses age honestly.

The priority of upcoming tests will be set by the community — voting opens soon in @indiciadesk. The vote picks what gets tested; the verdict is delivered by the data.

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