Daily intel · the levels & walls board · declassified · updated 2026-10-16 13:25 UTC · auto-refresh every ~2 h
The price at which market makers collect the most at settlement while option buyers lose the most — for every expiry. Plus what no aggregator gives you: the walls of open contracts and the market-maker breakeven corridor, read straight from the live crypto option chain. Real Deribit data — not guesses. Below — where the interest flowed over 24h ↓, and our verdict on these levels — every morning at 08:30 in @indiciadesk.
Max pain — the price at which, at settlement, market makers collect the most and holders of bought contracts get the least. Our public verification board shows: a clean “magnet” pull to this exact point is rare (3 of 34), but the anchor effect is real: near these zones price stalls and gets sticky more often than chance.
Walls — strikes with the largest number of open contracts: calls (right) — upside bets, puts (left) — protection and downside bets. Price often stalls near walls.
MM breakeven corridor (the highlighted zone) — a conditional, model-based range: while price stays inside it, the premium market makers collected still covers the payouts. A break outside = the machines are losing money — their own hedging starts to amplify the move, and that is where a correction can snowball into a crash, and a bounce into a vertical melt-up.
The current max pain for BTC is $79 000, based on 150 247 open interest contracts expiring 30 Oct 26. Spot is $81 945 — 3.7% above max pain. Snapshot 13:25 UTC, Deribit option chain.
| date | max pain | MM breakeven | put wall | call wall | OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 26 | 82 000 | 80 000–84 000 | 80 000 | 84 500 | 2 827 |
| 23 Oct 26 | 83 000 | 79 000–87 000 | 78 000 | 90 000 | 14 030 |
| 30 Oct 26 | 80 000 | 70 000–86 000 | 70 000 | 95 000 | 150 247 |
| 06 Nov 26 | 81 000 | 72 000–88 000 | 80 000 | 82 000 | 1 960 |
| 27 Nov 26 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
| 25 Dec 26 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
| 26 Mar 27 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
| 25 Jun 27 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
| 24 Sep 27 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
The current max pain for ETH is $2 500, based on 292 938 open interest contracts expiring 30 Oct 26. Spot is $2 462 — 1.5% below max pain. Snapshot 13:25 UTC, Deribit option chain.
| date | max pain | MM breakeven | put wall | call wall | OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 26 | 2 440 | 2 360–2 500 | 2 400 | 2 520 | 37 208 |
| 18 Oct 26 | 2 420 | 2 360–2 500 | 2 400 | 2 560 | 13 602 |
| 19 Oct 26 | 2 460 | 2 360–2 520 | 2 300 | 2 480 | 22 163 |
| 20 Oct 26 | 2 460 | 2 340–2 540 | 2 360 | 2 500 | 7 915 |
| 23 Oct 26 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
| 30 Oct 26 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
| 06 Nov 26 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
| 27 Nov 26 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
| 25 Dec 26 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
| 26 Mar 27 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
| 25 Jun 27 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
| 24 Sep 27 | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• | ••• |
where big money moved its open positions — from our own hourly archive
📍 Now: biggest call inflow — 84k (+22 251 contracts) · puts — 74k (+16 969). Snapshot 2026-10-16 7:00 UTC.
How to read: bars up — an inflow of new positions at a strike over 24h, down — closures. Blue calls at strikes above spot = bets on an upside break; orange puts below — protection being built. A large inflow into a single strike = someone is building a position. Hover for exact contracts.
📍 Now: biggest call inflow — 2800 (+123 293 contracts) · puts — 2100 (+123 468). Snapshot 2026-10-16 7:00 UTC.
How to read: bars up — an inflow of new positions at a strike over 24h, down — closures. Blue calls at strikes above spot = bets on an upside break; orange puts below — protection being built. A large inflow into a single strike = someone is building a position. Hover for exact contracts.
📍 Now: BTC 0.60 (percentile 49 of history: middle of the range) · ETH 0.51 (percentile 24 of history: bottom of the range — little protection, upside bets dominate).
How to read: how many downside insurances (puts) stand per one upside bet (call) in open positions — what is the put/call ratio. Above one — protection dominates; a sharp rise in the ratio = the market is buying insurance en masse, a sharp fall = greed. Hover for values on a date; the “Spot” buttons overlay price.
📊 Data — from Deribit (options) and Hyperliquid (futures). Both venues are our partners: signing up through our links gets you −10% / −4% off fees; it does not affect the analysis.
We compute max pain ourselves (coin-terms, the same algorithm as our public verification board — where the pure “magnet” hit only 3 times out of 34, while the anchor effect is confirmed). Walls = strikes with the largest open interest within ±28% of spot. A journal of the system’s decisions, not investment advice. © 2026 INDICIA DESK.