Indicia Desk.

Daily intel · the levels & walls board · declassified · updated 2026-07-16 13:02 UTC · auto-refresh every ~2 h

Max pain & option walls:
BTC and ETH levels today

The price at which market makers collect the most at settlement while option buyers lose the most — for every expiry. Plus what no aggregator gives you: the walls of open contracts and the market-maker breakeven corridor. Real Deribit data — not guesses. Below — where the interest flowed over 24h ↓, and our verdict on these levels — every morning at 08:30 in @indiciadesk.

🎯 Today: BTC 63 959 — inside the MM corridor (59 000–71 000); to the put wall 60 000 -6.2%, to the call wall 70 000 +9.4%. Max pain Jul 31: 65 000 (+1.6% from spot). ETH 1 872 — inside the MM corridor (1 550–2 050); to the put wall 1 500 -19.9%, to the call wall 2 200 +17.5%. Max pain Jul 31: 1 800 (-3.9% from spot). ⚡ set a watch on these levels
📐 Expected move (priced into options, 1σ): BTC ±1.9% per day · ±5.0% per week · ETH ±2.6% per day · ±6.8% per week. With ~68% probability price stays within these bounds. This is not our forecast — it is what the market is “pricing into” options right now (computed from DVOL). A move beyond the cone = a day stronger than expected.

Gamma layer · levels of the day

where market-maker hedging dampens the move, and below which line it starts to accelerate it · model (BS gamma from mark_iv × OI, the standard dealer assumption) — an estimate, not a measurement · what is a gamma flip →

🧭 LEVELS OF THE DAY · BTC · spot $64 030 DAMPING — moves get absorbed
$70 000
🧱 call wall · ceiling
$60 000
🛡 put wall · floor
$61 410
⚖️ zero-gamma · regime line
$142.7M
Σ gamma exposure / 1% move
BTC · DEALER GAMMA EXPOSURE BY STRIKE · $M per 1% of moveupdated 16.07 13:02 UTC
drag to zoom · double-click to reset

📍 Now: spot $64 030 (▲ mark on the axis) — between the put wall $60 000 and the call wall $70 000; zero-gamma $61 410; regime: damping — moves get absorbed

Above zero — call gamma (dealers dampen the move around those strikes), below — put gamma (dealers amplify it). The tallest bar on top is the call wall (ceiling), the deepest one below — the put wall (floor). Model: Black-Scholes gamma from mark_iv × OI with the standard dealer-book assumption (long calls · short puts, as in SpotGamma) — an estimate, not a measurement.

🧭 LEVELS OF THE DAY · ETH · spot $1 874 DAMPING — moves get absorbed
$1 900
🧱 call wall · ceiling
$1 700
🛡 put wall · floor
$1 748
⚖️ zero-gamma · regime line
$12.9M
Σ gamma exposure / 1% move
ETH · DEALER GAMMA EXPOSURE BY STRIKE · $M per 1% of moveupdated 16.07 13:02 UTC
drag to zoom · double-click to reset

📍 Now: spot $1 874 (▲ mark on the axis) — between the put wall $1 700 and the call wall $1 900; zero-gamma $1 748; regime: damping — moves get absorbed

Above zero — call gamma (dealers dampen the move around those strikes), below — put gamma (dealers amplify it). The tallest bar on top is the call wall (ceiling), the deepest one below — the put wall (floor). Model: Black-Scholes gamma from mark_iv × OI with the standard dealer-book assumption (long calls · short puts, as in SpotGamma) — an estimate, not a measurement.

How to read the board

Max pain — the price at which, at settlement, market makers collect the most and holders of bought contracts get the least. Our public verification board shows: a clean “magnet” pull to this exact point is rare (3 of 34), but the anchor effect is real: near these zones price stalls and gets sticky more often than chance.

Walls — strikes with the largest number of open contracts: calls (right) — upside bets, puts (left) — protection and downside bets. Price often stalls near walls.

MM breakeven corridor (the highlighted zone) — a conditional, model-based range: while price stays inside it, the premium market makers collected still covers the payouts. A break outside = the machines are losing money — their own hedging starts to amplify the move, and that is where a correction can snowball into a crash, and a bounce into a vertical melt-up.

BTC

spot 63 959 · perp funding +0.0056%/8h · max pain Jul 31: 65 000 · MM breakeven: 59 000–71 000
perp basis +23 · DVOL 36 (below 11% of the year) · HV 37 · fear premium -0.5 · full volatility state →
◀ puts (protection/down)strikecalls (upside bets) ▶
81 000
80 000
79 000
78 000
77 000
76 000
75 000
74 000
73 000
72 000
71 000 MM bound
70 000 call wall
69 000
68 000
67 500
67 000
66 500
66 000
65 500
65 000 max pain
64 500
64 000
SPOT 63 959
63 500
63 000
62 500
62 000
61 500
61 000
60 500
60 000 put wall
59 000 MM bound
58 000
57 000
56 000
55 000
54 000
53 000
52 000
50 000
48 000

Expiries: max pain · MM breakeven · walls · contracts

datemax painMM breakevenput wallcall wallOI
17 Jul 2663 00060 000–64 50056 00064 00019 469
24 Jul 2663 00058 000–67 00060 00068 00012 560
31 Jul 2665 00059 000–71 00050 00070 000117 283
28 Aug 2662 00053 000–71 00050 00075 00032 682
25 Sep 2672 00056 000–84 00060 00078 00090 131
25 Dec 2674 00050 000–90 00060 00080 00090 156
26 Mar 2765 00045 000–92 00050 000150 00023 334
25 Jun 2760 00030 000–82 00040 00060 0003 581
🔒 4 more expiries with the MM corridor for each — 💠 subscriber access
Get access

ETH

spot 1 872 · perp funding +0.0030%/8h · max pain Jul 31: 1 800 · MM breakeven: 1 550–2 050
perp basis +1 · DVOL 49 (below 2% of the year) · HV 50 · fear premium -0.5 · full volatility state →
◀ puts (protection/down)strikecalls (upside bets) ▶
2 350
2 300
2 250
2 200 call wall
2 150
2 100
2 050 MM bound
2 025
2 000
1 975
1 950
1 925
1 900
1 875
SPOT 1 872
1 850
1 825
1 800 max pain
1 775
1 750
1 725
1 700
1 675
1 650
1 625
1 600
1 550 MM bound
1 500 put wall
1 450
1 400
1 350

Expiries: max pain · MM breakeven · walls · contracts

datemax painMM breakevenput wallcall wallOI
17 Jul 261 8001 650–1 9001 6001 900122 966
18 Jul 261 9251 825–1 9751 7501 95013 723
19 Jul 261 8751 800–1 9751 7001 9505 378
24 Jul 261 8751 700–2 0001 8751 87561 828
31 Jul 261 8001 550–2 0501 6002 300366 299
07 Aug 261 8001 800–2 1001 9002 1009 888
28 Aug 261 7501 400–2 1001 3002 400114 068
25 Sep 262 4001 600–2 9002 0002 500360 681
25 Dec 262 2001 300–2 8001 0003 200426 664
26 Mar 272 0001 000–2 9001 0003 000100 108
25 Jun 271 700800–2 8001 0004 00024 548
🔒 7 more expiries with the MM corridor for each — 💠 subscriber access
Get access
⚖️ Does max pain work? We put it on trial across 262 expiries: an exact hit — only 29% (yesterday’s spot is more accurate). The MM breakeven corridor, however, held the settlement in 81% of cases. The full board of every expiry — in the Dossier (UA).

Open-interest flow

where big money moved its open positions — from our own hourly archive

BTC · WHERE INTEREST FLOWED IN 24H · Δ of open positions by strike (top 16)drag to zoom · double-click to reset

📍 Now: biggest call inflow — 72k (+156 156 contracts) · puts — 60k (+13 737) · biggest outflow — 68k. Snapshot 2026-07-16 8:00 UTC.

How to read: bars up — an inflow of new positions at a strike over 24h, down — closures. Blue calls at strikes above spot = bets on an upside break; orange puts below — protection being built. A large inflow into a single strike = someone is building a position. Hover for exact contracts.

ETH · WHERE INTEREST FLOWED IN 24H · Δ of open positions by strike (top 16)drag to zoom · double-click to reset

📍 Now: biggest call inflow — 2000 (+119 923 contracts) · puts — 1875 (+52 028). Snapshot 2026-07-16 8:00 UTC.

How to read: bars up — an inflow of new positions at a strike over 24h, down — closures. Blue calls at strikes above spot = bets on an upside break; orange puts below — protection being built. A large inflow into a single strike = someone is building a position. Hover for exact contracts.

PUT/CALL RATIO ON OPEN INTERESTdrag to zoom · double-click to reset

📍 Now: BTC 0.51 (percentile 0 of history: bottom of the range — little protection, upside bets dominate) · ETH 0.56 (percentile 75 of history: top of the range — the market is loaded with insurance).

How to read: how many downside insurances (puts) stand per one upside bet (call) in open positions — what is the put/call ratio. Above one — protection dominates; a sharp rise in the ratio = the market is buying insurance en masse, a sharp fall = greed. Hover for values on a date; the “Spot” buttons overlay price.

📡 Level watch — a private alert the moment price breaks a wall, leaves the MM corridor or touches your level. Included as a launch promo: 1 watch in the 💠 AGENT plan · 2 in 🔬 ANALYST · extra — $50/mo. Set up via the bot →

📊 Data — from Deribit (options) and Hyperliquid (futures). Signing up through our links gets you −10% / −4% off fees and earns us a small commission; it does not affect the analysis.

We compute max pain ourselves (coin-terms, the same algorithm as our public verification board — where the pure “magnet” hit only 3 times out of 34, while the anchor effect is confirmed). Walls = strikes with the largest open interest within ±28% of spot. A journal of the system’s decisions, not investment advice. © 2026 INDICIA DESK.

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