Market state · snapshot 2026-10-16 13:26 UTC · auto-refresh every ~2 h · history — daily · Deribit data
Every day the options market puts a price on future moves — and it almost always errs to one side. Here we show that price (DVOL, the volatility smile, delta-25 skew) next to realized volatility — and how much more, or less, fear currently costs compared to reality.
“Cheap” — against its own one-year history (DVOL percentile). This is the state of prices now, not a forecast: cheap options can get cheaper still. For a buyer of movement cheap options are favourable; for a premium seller — the opposite.
📍 Now: on the front tenor the left edge is raised — the put wing costs more by 1.5 pts (puts pricier — moderate).
How to read the smile: each curve is the price of options (IV) across the strikes of one tenor; the vertical line is current spot. A raised LEFT edge = downside insurance costs more (the market fears a fall); a raised right edge — they pay for upside. Hover for the exact IV of every tenor at a strike.
How to read: what the “central” volatility costs for each maturity. Now: normal (contango): far options cost more than near ones — the usual price of time. A curve inversion is our verified marker of elevated movement ahead (the case file lives in our Ledger). On contango and inversion — glossary →.
| tenor | ATM IV | Δ25 skew (put - call) | Δ25 wings (BF) | reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 26 ≈7d | 30% | +1.5% | +0.5% | puts pricier — moderate |
| 06 Nov 26 ≈30d | 36% | +3.6% | +1.0% | puts pricier — moderate |
| 25 Dec 26 ≈90d | 37% | +2.7% | +0.8% | puts pricier — moderate |
📍 Now: on the front tenor the left edge is raised — the put wing costs more by 3.3 pts (puts pricier — moderate).
How to read the smile: each curve is the price of options (IV) across the strikes of one tenor; the vertical line is current spot. A raised LEFT edge = downside insurance costs more (the market fears a fall); a raised right edge — they pay for upside. Hover for the exact IV of every tenor at a strike.
How to read: what the “central” volatility costs for each maturity. Now: normal (contango): far options cost more than near ones — the usual price of time. A curve inversion is our verified marker of elevated movement ahead (the case file lives in our Ledger). On contango and inversion — glossary →.
| tenor | ATM IV | Δ25 skew (put - call) | Δ25 wings (BF) | reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 26 ≈7d | 40% | +3.3% | +2.0% | puts pricier — moderate |
| 06 Nov 26 ≈30d | 47% | +1.2% | +1.5% | puts pricier — moderate |
| 25 Dec 26 ≈90d | 49% | +0.9% | +1.3% | symmetric |
our own hourly archive since January 2024 — depth no free service provides
📍 Now: implied 38 vs realized 33 → premium +4.5. Fear costs visibly more than reality — historically such periods fed the option seller.
How to read: the blue line is what the market PAYS for future moves, the grey one is how much movement actually HAPPENED. When blue sits above — fear is overpriced and time works for the option seller; crossovers (facts above expectations) are rare buyer windows. The “VRP” button draws the premium itself: everything dipping below zero is a buyer’s window. Hover for exact values on any date.
📍 Now: percentile 16 of the year — very low. Historically, the weeks after readings like this brought an expansion of movement more often than continued quiet.
How to read: where today’s “price of fear” stands against its own one-year history. Below 20 — very low (historically the launchpad of big moves), above 80 — panic is already in option prices. The spot overlay shows WHAT price was doing in those zones.
🗂 A verified case from the Ledger: buying far ETH puts in deep quiet — confirmed alpha (BTC — no). The dossier with a frozen criterion — in the registry (UA).
📍 Now: 7-day skew +1.8 · 30-day +2.7 — puts pricier — moderate.
How to read: above zero — downside insurance (puts) costs more than upside bets: the market pays for protection. Sharp spikes — panic episodes; negative values — rare greed (calls pricier). Two lines — the short (7d) and the monthly (30d) horizons.
🗂 From the Ledger: raw skew as a directional signal we rejected; its reversal, however, feeds the live “Skew 2.0” construction on the Proving Ground. All skew case files — in the registry (UA).
📍 Now: implied 51 vs realized 45 → premium +6.6. Fear costs visibly more than reality — historically such periods fed the option seller.
How to read: the blue line is what the market PAYS for future moves, the grey one is how much movement actually HAPPENED. When blue sits above — fear is overpriced and time works for the option seller; crossovers (facts above expectations) are rare buyer windows. The “VRP” button draws the premium itself: everything dipping below zero is a buyer’s window. Hover for exact values on any date.
📍 Now: percentile 18 of the year — very low. Historically, the weeks after readings like this brought an expansion of movement more often than continued quiet.
How to read: where today’s “price of fear” stands against its own one-year history. Below 20 — very low (historically the launchpad of big moves), above 80 — panic is already in option prices. The spot overlay shows WHAT price was doing in those zones.
🗂 A verified case from the Ledger: buying far ETH puts in deep quiet — confirmed alpha (BTC — no). The dossier with a frozen criterion — in the registry (UA).
📍 Now: 7-day skew +3.1 · 30-day +1.6 — puts pricier — moderate.
How to read: above zero — downside insurance (puts) costs more than upside bets: the market pays for protection. Sharp spikes — panic episodes; negative values — rare greed (calls pricier). Two lines — the short (7d) and the monthly (30d) horizons.
🗂 From the Ledger: raw skew as a directional signal we rejected; its reversal, however, feeds the live “Skew 2.0” construction on the Proving Ground. All skew case files — in the registry (UA).
🔒 What this means for positions today — in the daily two-forces briefing (08:30): whether this is a volatility buyer’s window or a premium seller’s field, and what the system does about it. Subscribe via the bot · all access levels — on the Access page.
📊 Data — from Deribit (options) and Hyperliquid (futures). Both venues are our partners: signing up through our links gets you −10% / −4% off fees; it does not affect the analysis.
A market state, not a recommendation. Skew and premium are computed from Deribit mark prices (delta-25 via Black-Scholes, r=0). Past states do not guarantee future outcomes. © 2026 INDICIA DESK.