Crypto options intelligence · daily brief · 08:30 UTC
Every morning — a forensic read of the crypto options tape: what the whales did, and what the market makers are holding still. With a grade, a timestamp and the system's signature — not a guru's.
This is the shape of a brief — the live one, with that morning's prices and gauges, is published daily on the brief page.
Today's brief and the archive →Method
We read the direction of intent straight from block trades — who lifted, who hit, how hard and when. Not sentiment. Fills.
We derive the state of the field from gamma, skew and open interest: where the anchor sits and how hard it dampens every move.
Live boards · free forever
Board 01 · sentiment
Every clone of this index counts social posts and surveys. Ours is priced from the options market itself — DVOL, skew, the volatility risk premium: what the market actually pays for fear.
Open the index →Board 02 · whales
Most liquidation heatmaps are modeled guesses. Ours is measured: top-200 whale wallets on Hyperliquid, read straight from the chain — exact liquidation price, leverage, size, BTC & ETH.
Open the map →Inside the brief · sample exhibits
Whales — intent
Bullish taker skew · 24h block flow
+2,252
EDGE ●●○○○ n=20 · tentative
Market makers — state
Long-gamma anchor · damping active
3,400
UNDER STUDY ●○○○○ · state, not a signal
Expected amplitude ±2.1% — sample
Amplitude, not direction. The reading never points.
Desk note — declassifies in 7 days · hover to declassify
On Friday: the whale's bid held above the anchor into the closeCLASSIFIED
Watching: MAR 27 3,600-C — block concentration 4.2× baselineCLASSIFIED
Who moved — and who they cleared through.
Off-chain counterparty: OTC DESK · ZUGCLASSIFIED
The full graph is in the brief · free after 7 days
The Expiry Docket
Max pain is crypto's favourite expiry story. We have graded it publicly across 260+ expiries — hits, partials and misses, nothing hidden.
Verdict: the max pain "magnet" is a myth (an exact hit only 29% of the time). What does work is the market-maker breakeven corridor: it holds the settlement 81% of the time.
Max pain, explained plainly →Public scoreboard · 260+ expiries · as of July 2026
29%
Max pain hit exactly
81%
MM corridor held
The "magnet" rarely hits — but the MM breakeven corridor holds the settlement 81% of the time. The live board updates every morning · the misses stay on the record.
Trust scoreboard · our forecast accuracy
Every forecast the system makes is falsifiable — it can be checked after it resolves. We score hit rates by forecast type. And what doesn't work we don't bury quietly — we kill it in public.
The most honest row is the red one: the 1-day range forecast scored worse than a coin flip, so we killed it in public and pulled it from the lineup. Snapshot as of July 2026 · the live scoreboard updates as forecasts resolve · data from our market-pulse journal.
The proving ground · wins and losses in the open
Dozens of option constructions, paper-traded against real exchange bid/ask quotes — not the theoretical mark — since May 12, and grouped into families. The status of every one of them flips the moment reality votes against it — which is exactly why this board can't lie.
A live core, dozens of families under watch, and a public Graveyard of killed strategies — each with its review verdict. Statuses and the Graveyard are free forever; sparklines, the equity curve and exact constructions sit behind an access tier.
Counters on the live board refresh every morning from the registry · family verdicts come from reviews (~every 6 weeks) · the board doesn't lie: a status flips when reality votes against it. Paper account — no client funds are traded.
Radical honesty
●●○○○
Five dots next to every published statistic — filled by sample size and replication. An "80%" with two dots reads exactly the way it should: promising, unproven, under watch. We never quote a number without its badge.
When a strategy stops working, we don't delete it — we bury it in public, with a full autopsy: what it was, when it died and why. The Graveyard is open to everyone, subscriber or not.
Clearance levels · what each one includes
Boards, history and the Graveyard are free forever. Subscriptions get you the same-morning brief and watch alerts (a whale, a level, volatility, or your own condition); à la carte — single dockets and a test of your own hypothesis on our data. We don't sell the raw database at any tier.
Channels · 5 languages
📊 We analyse data from Deribit and Hyperliquid. Trade there through our links — you get −10% / −4% on fees.