INDICIA Radar — Daily Crypto Derivatives Read
One episode a day: what the option book on Deribit and the whales on Hyperliquid actually did — argued out number by number. Not signals, not advice.
Latest episode
Fourteen spreads under the quarterly look like a short on…
- Today at 08:00 UTC the quarterly settles — the heaviest expiry of the quarter: 167,945 contracts in BTC and 792,213 in ETH. 110 open whale cases stand on it.
- For a second day the whales are shrinking their short tilt in bitcoin, and this time with a new long: the long side grew from $150M to $262M, and the net tilt slimmed from $404M to $347M — the smallest of the week's morning snapshots.
- Two heavily leveraged players stand at the edges: a 35× long with its liquidation line less than 2% below the market and a new 40× short with its line less than 2% above it.
- The funds are buying for a sixth day running: $191M went into the BTC ETFs on Thursday. The week of 18–24.09 closed at +$2.68B, the 98th percentile of our measurements.
Previous episodes
Half a billion of leverage walked out of bitcoin overnight16:21Two billion of fund buying in four days22:34The break lasted exactly one day21:15They held the short through a 6% rally and started cutting…10:56A 6% rally is supposed to flush shorts out16:53A record tilt looks like conviction20:27Everyone will count the fund outflows19:49Everyone will see the 2.4% drop20:16Everyone will see the whales turning to calls18:47Everyone will see a whale short that finally held23:27Everyone will see the whales flip back to short20:53Everyone will see the whales buying the dip at $76,56125:16Everyone will see the $81,000 call wall gone this morning10:47Everyone saw funding flip back to greed overnight20:07