Proving ground Β· wins and losses, live Β· updated 16.07, auto every ~2 h
88 constructions tested at real bid/ask prices (not the theoretical mark) since May 12. We grouped them into 18 families. Every status flips when reality votes against it β which is exactly why this board doesn't lie.
88
constructions Β· 70 live / 18 off
18
families in the field
3
families fully off
16.07
registry snapshot Β· every morning
updated 16.07 17:07 UTC Β· every closed trade lands on the curve automatically
+$8 175
π₯ Skew 2.0 Β· 55 trades
+$7 578
π₯ Volatility Convergence Β· 64 trades
+$2 465
π₯ Skew 1.0 Β· 35 trades
17:07
UTC Β· auto every ~2 h
π Now: total +$5 868 across 353 trades Β· last 30 days β$24 661
Every point is a closed trade at actual Deribit bid/ask prices, fees included. The account is virtual; the prices and spreads are real. We don't airbrush drawdowns: they are exactly what separates a journal from an ad. The Wheel is not a bet but daily premium harvesting, so it lives in its own section below.
Recent trades Β· open in the market + closed Β· no delay
Name, entryβexit dates and the result are open right away, no delay. π The exact construction of each trade (legs, strikes, expiry, size) at the moment of entry β π AGENT / π¬ ANALYST.
The flagship works differently from the bets above: it sells options daily on BTC and ETH and harvests the premium, while holding bought crash insurance β it automatically grows in the calm and buys more when it's quiet and the market is already falling. The counters show the best version (#4): the wheel + that insurance, $25k per asset, real prices, forward since May.
+$3.9k
BTC Β· +15.8% since May Β· on $25k
+$2.8k
ETH Β· +11.4% since May Β· on $25k
β22.8% / β24.1%
and if you had simply held BTC / ETH since May β this is how it went
25%β18% Β· 32%β17%
the account's worst moment BTC Β· ETH: without insurance β with insurance
π Now: pure wheel $41 610 vs the best version $57 736 on a $50 000 base
One and the same machine, four versions: version 1 (grey) β the pure wheel, selling options daily as is, drawdown included; version 2 (green) β plus crash insurance; version 3 (purple) β the insurance automatically grows as the market goes quiet; version 4 (blue) β the insurance also buys more when it's quiet and the market is already falling β the best one, the one in the counters. All four use real bid/ask prices and fees. The gap between the grey and blue lines is the insurance's contribution: the drawdown becomes a gain.
β οΈ Eight weeks of forward data is a tracker, not proof: the boosted buying (version 4) partly caught lucky timing in this window; we are proving it on two years of history. π The exact insurance parameters (delta, tenor, the buy ladder) β π¬ ANALYST.
We sell options on BTC and ETH and harvest the premium, holding insurance against a crash. Our flagship.
πͺ best version (wheel + insurance at real prices), on $25k β vs βjust holdβ:
BTC +15.8% (+$3.9k) vs β22.8% Β· drawdown 25%β18%
ETH +11.4% (+$2.8k) vs β24.1% Β· drawdown 32%β17%
π’ The insurance (version 4) turns the drawdown into a gain β we made money while the market fell. Forward tracker (small sample); proving it on two years of history.
When the market overpays for downside fear β we enter for a sharp move.
π΅ $1000 of premium/signal Β· 55 entries Β· 42% winners Β· total +$8 175
π― average win +89% vs -39% β one win covers ~2 losses
π’ A volatility engine: earns when the market storms; sleeps in the calm. An honest core on BTC.
When the market underprices the coming move β we enter for a sharp move.
π΅ $1000 of premium/signal Β· 61 entries Β· 38% winners Β· total +$8 078
π― average win +93% vs -35% β one win covers ~3 losses
π’ Our strongest move-catcher β it earns precisely in turbulence, which is why it runs the biggest account.
After a sharp rally and euphoria β we enter for the reversal down.
π΅ $1000 in spot/signal Β· 37 entries Β· 35% winners Β· total β$827
π‘ The perp leg β flat; the options leg β sample still small. Under watch.
After a panic dump and capitulation β we enter for the bounce.
π΅ $1000 in spot/signal Β· 16 entries Β· 62% winners Β· total β$194
π‘ The signal fires every time, but the edge is thin β funding eats it. ETH-only.
When fear in the market jumps sharply β we enter the same day for a sharp move.
π΅ $1000 of premium/signal Β· 37 entries Β· 22% winners Β· total β$4 297
π― average win +135% vs -52% β one win covers ~3 losses
π‘ A βcrash wonderβ: strong in a crash, bleeds outside one β kept as a watch.
When the market freezes in a narrow range for too long β we enter for the inevitable release.
π΅ $1000 of premium/signal Β· 3 entries Β· 100% winners Β· total +$636
π‘ Early entries in the green, but the sample is small β building the statistics.
When the crowd piles into downside protection β we follow, briefly.
π΅ $1000 in spot/signal Β· 12 entries Β· 58% winners Β· total +$5
π‘ A micro-plus β don't hold it too long, there's a flip.
When the crowd piles into upside bets β we enter against.
π΅ $1000 in spot/signal Β· 83 entries Β· 41% winners Β· total β$5 625
π‘ The perp β flat, but the options leg drags into the red β on a short leash until review #3.
Ahead of the FOMC meeting β we enter for the move off the decision.
π΅ $1000 of premium/signal Β· 3 entries Β· 33% winners Β· total β$385
π‘ Event-driven β a handful of samples; next check at the FOMC of 29.07.
When several independent signals line up β we enter concentrated.
π΅ $1000 of premium/signal Β· 6 entries Β· 17% winners Β· total β$1 756
π‘ New β in the red so far; collecting forward data.
We entered for protection when downside fear was widening.
0 of 3 live triggers in the green
β« The spread on 1-day buys ate the whole edge β rejected.
We entered when the cost of holding a position went extreme.
the edge lived only in 2024 Β· 16 months of silence
β« Regime-bound, not a pattern β rejected.
We sold insurance whenever it got cheap.
win 30% Β· the premium doesn't cover a 48-hour move
β« What it collects doesn't cover a typical move β rejected.
Here β statuses, verdicts, the honest account (how many entries, win%, vs just holding) and the Graveyard β free, forever. The aggregate equity curve is free too, above. The curve of each strategy separately, trades without the seven-day delay, today's entry signal and the full PnL breakdown β at the π AGENT level. The exact construction at the moment of opening β legs, strikes, expiries, our % of size β at the π¬ ANALYST level. All access levels β
π Data β from Deribit (options) and Hyperliquid (futures). Signing up through our links gets you β10% / β4% on fees and us a small reward; it does not affect the analysis.
The counters update every morning from the live registry Β· family verdicts are review decisions (~every six weeks, latest β 2 Β· 04.07) Β· the board doesn't lie: a status flips when reality votes against it. A journal of the system's decisions, not financial advice. Β© 2026 INDICIA DESK.