Proving ground · wins and losses, live · updated 16.10, auto every ~2 h
Radar hypotheses don't stay words: 92 structures tested at real bid/ask prices (not the theoretical mark) since May 12, grouped into 20 families. Every status flips when reality votes against it — which is exactly why this board doesn't lie.
92
structures · 74 live / 18 off
20
families in the field
3
families fully off
16.10
registry snapshot · every morning
Picture an apartment you rent out by the night. The apartment itself may gain or lose value — but the rent comes in every day. For the Pendulum the “apartment” is BTC and ETH, and the “rent” is the premium on the options it sells: it sells them daily and collects the cash upfront, while holding bought insurance against a crash. It is not guessing where the market goes — it is a machine that collects payment for time.
≈$102/day
average premium collected · ~2–3 option sales a day
+$8 919
account in dollars · $50 000 → $58 919 (+17.8%)
+6.3%
had you simply held BTC+ETH — you would have $53 152 left
+17% BTC · +5% ETH
in coin: it ends with MORE coins than someone who just held
The premium is the pure Pendulum's live journal: ≈$16 293 of premium collected across 356 option sales over 159 days (since 11.05; real prices, fees included). The dollar account is the best version, “Pendulum 4 · storm” (insurance buys more into falls), weekly board. The insured account's worst moment: BTC 25%→18% · ETH 33%→20%. 22 weeks of forward data — a tracker, not proof: we are proving it on two years of history.
📍 Now: Pendulum 1 (pure) $46 418 vs Pendulum 4 (storm) $57 396 on a $50 000 base
One and the same machine, four versions: Pendulum 1 (grey) — pure daily option selling as is, drawdown included; Pendulum 2 (green) — plus crash insurance; Pendulum 3 (purple) — the insurance automatically grows as the market goes quiet; Pendulum 4 (blue) — the insurance also buys more when it's quiet and the market is already falling — the best version, the one in the counters. All four use real bid/ask prices and fees. The gap between the grey and blue lines is the insurance's contribution: the drawdown becomes a gain.
This is our live insurance A/B: four versions of one machine run in parallel, each its own proving-ground position, not a “best attempt”. The “in coin” column is the one that matters: the pure Pendulum on BTC is down in dollars, yet ends with more bitcoin than simply holding. For someone accumulating coin, that is two opposite conclusions from one row.
⚠️ 22 weeks of forward data is a tracker, not proof: the boosted buying (Pendulum 4) partly caught lucky timing in this window; we are proving it on two years of history. 🔒 The exact insurance parameters (delta, tenor, the buy ladder) — 🔬 ANALYST.
updated 16.10 13:26 UTC · every closed trade lands on the curve automatically
How it works: every strategy has its own conditions — a set of market parameters. The moment they line up, the signal fires — and we buy the option structure with exactly $1000 of cash (directional entries — $1000 in spot). No hand-picking “good” moments: parameters matched — we entered; the trade closed — the result landed on the curve.
⏳ The sample is still too small for a statistical verdict: the numbers below are a live working journal, not a proven edge. We show them as they run, not after picking the winners.
+$77 219
🥇 The Dust Strategy V2 · 51 trades
+$25 809
🥈 The Dust Strategy V1 · 41 trades
+$11 376
🥉 Volatility Convergence V3 · 38 trades
+$6 464
➍ Skew 2.0 V2 · 49 trades
+$1 766
➎ Fear Spike V3 · 11 trades
13:26
UTC · auto every ~2 h
Every point is a closed trade at actual Deribit bid/ask prices, fees included. The account is virtual; the prices and spreads are real. We don't airbrush drawdowns: they are exactly what separates a journal from an ad. The Pendulum is not a one-off position but daily premium harvesting, so it lives in its own section above.
51 trades · 2 wins · deepest drawdown −$33 750
41 trades · 3 wins · deepest drawdown −$23 597
38 trades · 14 wins · deepest drawdown −$5 124
49 trades · 16 wins · deepest drawdown −$7 414
11 trades · 3 wins · deepest drawdown −$2 653
Each strategy on its own, best to worst. Summing them makes no sense — they do not enter together and do not scale alike.
🔬 Some strategies run in parallel with different holding times (a controlled A/B: everything matches except time): on the shared window, in 5 of 6 pairs the longer hold does better per trade. The cause is spread arithmetic (short-dated options pay 8-10% against 5% on seven-day ones), not the nature of the signal. We keep the losing arms running on purpose: without a control group the comparison ceases to exist.
You choose three. When one of them enters, you get the entry moment and the exact structure in Telegram: legs, strikes, expiry. Each one's full record is already above, losses included.
Open right now · name and structure
While a position is open we name the strategy, the shape of the structure and the day it has been running since. No exact timestamp here: the entry journal with the time of each is 💠 Agent. The exact structure and entry moment of one strategy of your choice is 🔬 Analyst; three strategies are a separate product, 🎯 Polygon. Once the position closes, the result becomes open to everyone — in the table below.
Recent closed trades · name, dates and result — open to all, no delay
Name, entry→exit dates and the result are open right away, no delay. 🔒 At the moment of entry: 💠 AGENT — the shape of the structure and its logic (what it earns on, where the risk is); 🔬 ANALYST — legs, strikes, size and entry prices. Tiers — 💠 AGENT / 🔬 ANALYST.
We sell options on BTC and ETH and harvest the premium, holding insurance against a crash. Our flagship.
🪙 best version (pendulum + insurance at real prices), on $25k — vs “just hold”:
BTC +21.1% (+$5.3k) vs +3.4% · drawdown 25%→18%
ETH +14.6% (+$3.7k) vs +9.2% · drawdown 33%→20%
🟢 The insurance (version 4) turns the drawdown into a gain — we made money while the market fell. Forward tracker (small sample); proving it on two years of history.
When the market overpays for downside fear — we enter for a sharp move.
🧪 3 variants under test · best +$6 464 · worst −$5 915 — each one scored in the table below
🟢 A volatility engine: earns when the market storms; sleeps in the calm. An honest core on BTC.
When the market underprices the coming move — we enter for a sharp move.
🧪 6 variants under test · best +$11 376 · worst −$4 489 — each one scored in the table below
🟢 Our strongest move-catcher — it earns precisely in turbulence, which is why it runs the biggest account.
We buy very cheap options far out of the money — one rare sharp move pays for dozens of burnt premiums.
💵 $1000 of premium/signal · 51 entries · 4% winners · total +$77 219
🎯 average win +6617% vs -112% — one win covers ~59 losses
🟡 Lottery profile: 19 losses in a row — it pays rarely and large. Not for anyone who quits after the third red trade.
After a sharp rally and euphoria — we enter for the reversal down.
🧪 6 variants under test · best −$107 · worst −$5 483 — each one scored in the table below
🟡 The perp leg ≈ flat; the options leg — sample still small. Under watch.
After a panic dump and capitulation — we enter for the bounce.
🧪 4 variants under test · best −$17 · worst −$134 — each one scored in the table below
🟡 The signal fires every time, but the edge is thin — funding eats it. ETH-only.
When fear in the market jumps sharply — we enter the same day for a sharp move.
🧪 3 variants under test · best +$1 766 · worst −$4 617 — each one scored in the table below
🟡 A “crash wonder”: strong in a crash, bleeds outside one — kept as a watch.
When the market freezes in a narrow range for too long — we enter for the inevitable release.
🧪 3 variants under test · best +$290 · worst +$84 — each one scored in the table below
🟡 Early entries in the green, but the sample is small — building the statistics.
When the crowd piles into downside protection — we follow, briefly.
💵 $1000 in spot/signal · 36 entries · 42% winners · total −$238
🟡 A micro-plus — don't hold it too long, there's a flip.
When the crowd piles into upside bets — we enter against.
🧪 9 variants under test · best −$92 · worst −$10 812 — each one scored in the table below
🟡 The perp ≈ flat, but the options leg drags into the red — on a short leash until review #3.
Ahead of the FOMC meeting — we enter for the move off the decision.
🧪 3 variants under test · best +$1 099 · worst −$850 — each one scored in the table below
🟡 Event-driven — a handful of samples; next check at the FOMC of 29.07.
When several independent signals line up — we enter concentrated.
🧪 2 variants under test · best +$498 · worst −$137 — each one scored in the table below
🟡 New — in the red so far; collecting forward data.
We entered for protection when downside fear was widening.
0 of 3 live triggers in the green
⚫ The spread on 1-day buys ate the whole edge — rejected.
We entered when the cost of holding a position went extreme.
the edge lived only in 2024 · 16 months of silence
⚫ Regime-bound, not a pattern — rejected.
We sold insurance whenever it got cheap.
win 30% · the premium doesn't cover a 48-hour move
⚫ What it collects doesn't cover a typical move — rejected.
Here — statuses, verdicts, the honest account (entries, win%, biggest losses, losing streaks), the top-5 curves, the trade tape with no delay and the Graveyard — free, forever. Today's entry signal (an alert the moment the parameters line up) and the full PnL breakdown of every strategy — at the 💠 AGENT level. The exact structure at the moment of entry — legs, strikes, expiries, our % of size — plus the Pendulum's insurance parameters — at the 🔬 ANALYST level. All access levels →
📊 Data — from Deribit (options) and Hyperliquid (futures). Both venues are our partners: signing up through our links gets you −10% / −4% off fees; it does not affect the analysis.
We don't sell signals. We take specific structures — spreads, straddles and the wheel (daily option-selling with a hedge) — and stress-test them on real bid/ask prices for BTC and ETH, then publish the verdict after the fact. The page shows which families are alive, which are on watch, and which we buried.
Every structure is forward-tracked on Deribit's real bid/ask, fees included, grouped into families, with the status refreshed every morning from the live registry. Losers aren't hidden — they stay open in the Graveyard.
No. This is a falsifiable journal of the system's decisions, not trade calls and not financial advice. We show the account as it is — wins and losses alike.
The counters update every morning from the live registry · family verdicts are review decisions (~every six weeks) · the board doesn't lie: a status flips when reality votes against it. A journal of the system's decisions, not financial advice. © 2026 INDICIA DESK.