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Trust archive · always free · 352 expiries since 08.03.2026, dailies included · snapshot 2026-08-30 08:32 · updated daily after each settlement · built from Deribit (≈29% of ETH options)

Does Max Pain Work?
352 Expiries on Trial

The claim that price gets pulled toward max pain is repeated by thousands of channels — we put it on trial against every single expiry over four months, using official Deribit settlement prices. The verdict: the magnet is dead. But the same evidence revealed the thing that actually works — a number nobody else publishes.

🎯 Verdict under oath: the max pain "magnet" is a myth (exact hits just 33% — yesterday's spot is the better forecast). The real anchor is the market-maker breakeven range: it holds 82% of settlements. Today's BTC/ETH corridor is on the live board. ⚡ set a range-exit watch
82%
The market-maker breakeven range held settlement in 287 of 352 expiries.
Price doesn't travel "to a point" — it stays inside the zone where the machines remain profitable. Breaches are rare, shallow (median 1.3%) and symmetric (34↑/31↓). Last 30 days: 84%. Today's range is on the live board.
33%
exact max pain hits (<1%)
weeklies — just 13%
1.6% vs 2.6%
yesterday's spot misses less than max pain does — the "magnet" is worse than nothing
48% · 40%
call wall · put wall holds the close when tested — a coin flip, not concrete
💰 "Big money" buys no accuracy. We examined 129 🔥 significant expiries (top quartile by notional, or a dominant wall): max pain hits 27% there versus 36% in ordinary ones; the range — 81% versus 82%. No difference. The biggest expiry of the window ($13.7B) — a miss.
🩹 A wall is a rubber band, not concrete. Out of 45 "held" call walls, price pierced the wall intraday 27 times and came back by the close. Walls work at settlement, not as a barrier in the moment.

Breakdown by expiry type

typenmax pain ✓range held
daily30437%82%
weekly3813%82%
monthly812%100%
quarterly40%50%

Monthlies and quarterlies — only 4 each in the window: an anecdotal sample, honestly flagged.

The full board — filter it yourself

asset type range significance

Two boards, one settlement

Deribit and Bybit price the payout with different formulas and draw different crowds, so their max pain figures are two independent readings of one expiry. We freeze both 24 hours before settlement. Below: both forecasts against the official fact.

expiryassetDeribitBybitsettlementmiss Dmiss B
30.08ETH2 4802 4502 4570.94%0.28%
30.08BTC78 50078 25078 1580.44%0.12%
29.08ETH2 5002 5002 4372.53%2.53%
29.08BTC80 00079 75077 6092.99%2.68%
28.08ETH2 0502 2752 49721.79%9.75%
28.08BTC69 00072 50079 68215.48%9.91%
27.08ETH2 4802 4752 4930.53%0.74%
27.08BTC78 00079 00078 8931.14%0.14%
26.08ETH2 5202 4902 4642.22%1.04%
26.08BTC79 00079 00078 9660.04%0.04%
25.08ETH2 4402 4502 4922.15%1.73%
25.08BTC77 50077 25080 2183.51%3.84%

Across 48 observations the average miss is: Deribit 3.78%, Bybit 2.81%. Bybit was closer 26 times, Deribit 12, tied 10.

This is not a conclusion, it is a counter. There are too few observations to say whose board is more honest; the series grows daily, and when it is large enough the answer will be here — misses included.

Under each Deribit max pain sits the frozen Bybit max pain — a second independent reading of the same expiry. It is present in 50 rows: our Bybit chain snapshots begin on 06.08.2026, and it cannot be reconstructed after the fact — the instruments vanish from the exchange once settled. The figures are computed SEPARATELY and are never summed: Deribit is coin-margined, Bybit is USDT.

settledassettype🔥max painMM rangeactualMP verdictrangewalls
30.08.26BTCdaily78 500Bybit 78 25077 000–80 00078 158✓ -0.4%✓ held– call · – put
30.08.26ETHdaily2 480Bybit 2 4502 420–2 5402 457✓ -0.9%✓ held– call · – put
29.08.26BTCdaily🔥80 000Bybit 79 75078 000–82 00077 609✗ -3.1%✗ breached– call · – put
29.08.26ETHdaily🔥2 500Bybit 2 5002 400–2 5802 437✗ -2.6%✓ held– call · ✗ put
28.08.26BTCmonthly69 000Bybit 72 50055 000–80 00079 682✗ +13.4%✓ held✗ call · – put
28.08.26ETHmonthly2 050Bybit 2 2751 500–2 5502 497✗ +17.9%✓ held✓ call · – put
27.08.26BTCdaily78 000Bybit 79 00075 500–80 00078 893◌ +1.1%✓ held– call · – put
27.08.26ETHdaily2 480Bybit 2 4752 400–2 5602 493✓ +0.5%✓ held– call · – put
26.08.26BTCdaily79 000Bybit 79 00076 500–81 50078 966✓ -0.0%✓ held– call · – put
26.08.26ETHdaily2 520Bybit 2 4902 420–2 6002 464✗ -2.3%✓ held✓ call · ✓ put
25.08.26BTCdaily77 500Bybit 77 25075 500–79 00080 218✗ +3.4%✗ breached✗ call · ✓ put
25.08.26ETHdaily2 440Bybit 2 4502 340–2 5402 492✗ +2.1%✓ held✗ call · – put
24.08.26BTCdaily🔥76 500Bybit 77 00074 000–78 50077 394✗ +1.2%✓ held– call · – put
24.08.26ETHdaily🔥2 400Bybit 2 4252 320–2 5002 456✗ +2.3%✓ held– call · – put
23.08.26BTCdaily🔥69 000Bybit 77 00061 000–77 50076 073✗ +9.3%✓ held✗ call · – put
23.08.26ETHdaily🔥2 340Bybit 2 4502 160–2 4502 390◌ +2.1%✓ held✓ call · – put
22.08.26BTCdaily🔥70 500Bybit 72 00064 000–78 00077 376✗ +8.9%✓ held✗ call · – put
22.08.26ETHdaily🔥2 140Bybit 2 2751 860–2 4202 437✗ +12.2%✗ breached✗ call · – put
21.08.26BTCweekly66 000Bybit 65 00058 000–71 50076 398✗ +13.6%✗ breached✗ call · – put
21.08.26ETHweekly1 950Bybit 2 0001 500–2 2802 377✗ +18.0%✗ breached✗ call · – put
20.08.26BTCdaily64 000Bybit 64 25063 000–65 00069 584✗ +8.0%✗ breached✗ call · – put
20.08.26ETHdaily1 920Bybit 1 9251 880–1 9602 246✗ +14.5%✗ breached✗ call · – put
19.08.26BTCdaily🔥64 000Bybit 63 75063 000–65 00064 297✓ +0.5%✓ held✓ call · – put
19.08.26ETHdaily1 880Bybit 1 9001 840–1 9201 917✗ +1.9%✓ held✗ call · – put
18.08.26BTCdaily63 000Bybit 63 25062 000–64 50064 167✗ +1.8%✓ held– call · – put
18.08.26ETHdaily1 880Bybit 1 9001 840–1 9401 898✓ +0.9%✓ held– call · – put
17.08.26BTCdaily63 000Bybit 63 00062 000–64 00063 486✓ +0.8%✓ held✓ call · – put
17.08.26ETHdaily🔥1 880Bybit 1 8751 840–1 9201 901✗ +1.1%✓ held– call · – put
16.08.26BTCdaily🔥63 000Bybit 63 00062 500–63 50062 998✓ -0.0%✓ held– call · – put
16.08.26ETHdaily1 880Bybit 1 8751 840–1 9001 879✓ -0.0%✓ held– call · – put
15.08.26BTCdaily🔥63 500Bybit 63 25062 000–64 50063 014✓ -0.8%✓ held– call · – put
15.08.26ETHdaily1 880Bybit 1 8751 840–1 9201 879✓ -0.0%✓ held– call · – put
14.08.26BTCweekly64 000Bybit 64 00063 000–65 50062 938✗ -1.7%✗ breached– call · – put
14.08.26ETHweekly1 900Bybit 1 9001 860–1 9501 873✗ -1.4%✓ held– call · – put
13.08.26BTCdaily🔥64 000Bybit 64 00062 500–65 00063 811✓ -0.3%✓ held✓ call · – put
13.08.26ETHdaily1 880Bybit 1 8751 840–1 9401 895✓ +0.8%✓ held✓ call · – put
12.08.26BTCdaily64 000Bybit 64 25063 000–65 50063 667✓ -0.5%✓ held– call · ✓ put
12.08.26ETHdaily1 920Bybit 1 9001 860–1 9801 888◌ -1.7%✓ held– call · – put
11.08.26BTCdaily65 000Bybit 65 00063 500–66 00063 992✗ -1.6%✓ held✓ call · ✗ put
11.08.26ETHdaily1 920Bybit 1 9251 880–1 9801 875✗ -2.4%✗ breached– call · – put
10.08.26BTCdaily🔥65 000Bybit 64 50063 500–65 50065 241✓ +0.4%✓ held– call · – put
10.08.26ETHdaily🔥1 920Bybit 1 9251 860–1 9601 926✓ +0.3%✓ held✗ call · – put
09.08.26BTCdaily64 500Bybit 65 00064 000–65 50064 783✓ +0.4%✓ held– call · ✓ put
09.08.26ETHdaily1 900Bybit 1 9001 880–1 9401 916✓ +0.9%✓ held– call · – put
08.08.26BTCdaily64 000Bybit 64 50062 500–65 00064 931✗ +1.4%✓ held✗ call · – put
08.08.26ETHdaily🔥1 880Bybit 1 9001 820–1 9401 914✗ +1.8%✓ held– call · – put
07.08.26BTCweekly🔥63 500Bybit 64 00061 500–65 50064 319◌ +1.3%✓ held– call · – put
07.08.26ETHweekly1 900Bybit 1 9001 820–1 9501 902✓ +0.1%✓ held– call · – put
06.08.26BTCdaily63 000Bybit 64 00062 000–65 00064 777✗ +2.7%✓ held– call · – put
06.08.26ETHdaily1 860Bybit 1 8751 800–1 9001 908✗ +2.5%✗ breached– call · – put
05.08.26BTCdaily63 00061 500–64 50064 007✗ +1.6%✓ held✓ call · – put
05.08.26ETHdaily1 8601 780–1 9001 864✓ +0.2%✓ held– call · – put
04.08.26BTCdaily63 00061 500–65 00063 638◌ +1.0%✓ held– call · – put
04.08.26ETHdaily1 8601 780–1 9201 860✓ +0.0%✓ held– call · – put
03.08.26BTCdaily63 50062 000–64 50062 562✗ -1.5%✓ held– call · – put
03.08.26ETHdaily1 9001 820–1 9201 843✗ -3.1%✓ held– call · – put
02.08.26BTCdaily63 00062 000–64 00063 439✓ +0.7%✓ held✗ call · – put
02.08.26ETHdaily1 8801 840–1 9201 875✓ -0.3%✓ held– call · ✓ put
01.08.26BTCdaily64 00062 500–65 00062 988✗ -1.6%✓ held– call · – put
01.08.26ETHdaily🔥1 9001 820–1 9601 868✗ -1.7%✓ held– call · – put
31.07.26BTCmonthly64 00061 000–69 00063 911✓ -0.1%✓ held– call · – put
31.07.26ETHmonthly1 8001 650–2 0001 887✗ +4.6%✓ held– call · – put
30.07.26BTCdaily64 50062 500–66 00063 924✓ -0.9%✓ held– call · – put
30.07.26ETHdaily1 9201 840–1 9751 901✓ -1.0%✓ held– call · ✓ put
29.07.26BTCdaily🔥64 00062 500–66 00064 402✓ +0.6%✓ held– call · – put
29.07.26ETHdaily1 9251 860–2 0001 914✓ -0.6%✓ held– call · ✓ put
28.07.26BTCdaily65 00063 500–66 00063 445✗ -2.5%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
28.07.26ETHdaily1 9001 800–2 0001 882✓ -1.0%✓ held✓ call · – put
27.07.26BTCdaily65 00063 500–66 00065 236✓ +0.4%✓ held– call · – put
27.07.26ETHdaily🔥1 8751 825–1 9251 965✗ +4.6%✗ breached✗ call · – put
26.07.26BTCdaily64 00063 500–65 00064 306✓ +0.5%✓ held– call · – put
26.07.26ETHdaily1 8751 825–1 9251 880✓ +0.3%✓ held– call · – put
25.07.26BTCdaily65 50064 000–67 00063 964✗ -2.4%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
25.07.26ETHdaily🔥1 9001 850–1 9751 855✗ -2.4%✓ held– call · – put
24.07.26BTCweekly64 00061 000–66 50065 437◌ +2.2%✓ held– call · – put
24.07.26ETHweekly1 8751 775–1 9501 894✓ +1.0%✓ held✗ call · – put
23.07.26BTCdaily65 50063 500–67 00065 385✓ -0.2%✓ held– call · – put
23.07.26ETHdaily🔥1 9251 850–1 9751 914✓ -0.6%✓ held✓ call · – put
22.07.26BTCdaily🔥65 00062 000–67 00065 767◌ +1.2%✓ held– call · – put
22.07.26ETHdaily1 9251 875–1 9751 912✓ -0.7%✓ held– call · ✗ put
21.07.26BTCdaily64 00062 500–65 50066 050✗ +3.1%✗ breached✗ call · – put
21.07.26ETHdaily1 8501 800–1 9001 934✗ +4.4%✗ breached✗ call · – put
20.07.26BTCdaily🔥63 50062 000–65 00064 130✓ +1.0%✓ held✗ call · – put
20.07.26ETHdaily1 8501 800–1 9001 860✓ +0.5%✓ held✓ call · – put
19.07.26BTCdaily64 00063 000–65 00064 686✗ +1.1%✓ held✗ call · – put
19.07.26ETHdaily1 8501 800–1 8751 869✗ +1.0%✓ held✗ call · – put
18.07.26BTCdaily64 50062 000–66 50063 968✓ -0.8%✓ held– call · ✗ put
18.07.26ETHdaily🔥1 8751 775–1 9501 843◌ -1.7%✓ held– call · – put
17.07.26BTCweekly63 00059 000–65 00062 871✓ -0.2%✓ held✓ call · – put
17.07.26ETHweekly1 7751 625–1 9251 828◌ +2.9%✓ held✓ call · – put
16.07.26BTCdaily64 00062 500–65 50064 224✓ +0.3%✓ held– call · – put
16.07.26ETHdaily1 8251 750–1 9251 909✗ +4.4%✓ held✓ call · – put
15.07.26BTCdaily63 00061 500–64 50064 542✗ +2.4%✗ breached✓ call · – put
15.07.26ETHdaily🔥1 8001 725–1 8501 868✗ +3.6%✗ breached✗ call · – put
14.07.26BTCdaily63 50062 000–65 00062 505✗ -1.6%✓ held– call · – put
14.07.26ETHdaily🔥1 8001 750–1 8751 779✗ -1.2%✓ held– call · ✓ put
13.07.26BTCdaily63 50062 500–65 00062 952✓ -0.9%✓ held✓ call · ✗ put
13.07.26ETHdaily🔥1 7751 725–1 8501 787✓ +0.6%✓ held– call · – put
12.07.26BTCdaily63 50062 000–64 50063 832✓ +0.5%✓ held✓ call · ✓ put
12.07.26ETHdaily1 7751 725–1 8251 796◌ +1.2%✓ held– call · – put
11.07.26BTCdaily63 00061 500–65 00064 144◌ +1.8%✓ held– call · – put
11.07.26ETHdaily1 7501 675–1 8251 799✗ +2.7%✓ held– call · – put
10.07.26BTCweekly62 00059 000–64 00063 912✗ +3.0%✓ held– call · – put
10.07.26ETHweekly1 7001 575–1 7751 772✗ +4.1%✓ held✗ call · – put
09.07.26BTCdaily62 50061 000–64 50062 925✓ +0.7%✓ held– call · – put
09.07.26ETHdaily1 7751 700–1 8501 753◌ -1.3%✓ held– call · ✓ put
08.07.26BTCdaily62 50061 000–64 00062 792✓ +0.5%✓ held– call · – put
08.07.26ETHdaily1 7751 700–1 8251 754✗ -1.2%✓ held– call · – put
07.07.26BTCdaily🔥62 50061 000–64 00063 109✓ +1.0%✓ held– call · – put
07.07.26ETHdaily1 7751 700–1 8251 772✓ -0.2%✓ held✓ call · – put
06.07.26BTCdaily61 50060 500–63 50062 984✗ +2.4%✓ held✓ call · – put
06.07.26ETHdaily1 7751 675–1 8251 771✓ -0.2%✓ held– call · – put
05.07.26BTCdaily🔥62 00060 500–63 00062 867✗ +1.4%✓ held✓ call · – put
05.07.26ETHdaily1 7001 625–1 7751 766✗ +3.7%✓ held✓ call · – put
04.07.26BTCdaily60 00058 000–62 00062 488✗ +4.0%✗ breached✗ call · – put
04.07.26ETHdaily1 6501 600–1 7501 755✗ +6.0%✗ breached– call · – put
03.07.26BTCweekly61 00059 000–64 00061 727✗ +1.2%✓ held– call · – put
03.07.26ETHweekly1 6501 575–1 7251 717✗ +3.9%✓ held✗ call · – put
02.07.26BTCdaily🔥59 00057 500–60 50060 078✗ +1.8%✓ held✓ call · – put
02.07.26ETHdaily🔥1 5751 525–1 6251 615✗ +2.5%✓ held✗ call · ✓ put
01.07.26BTCdaily59 50058 000–61 00058 649✗ -1.5%✓ held– call · – put
01.07.26ETHdaily1 5751 525–1 6501 576✓ +0.1%✓ held– call · – put
30.06.26BTCdaily60 00058 500–61 50059 429✓ -1.0%✓ held– call · – put
30.06.26ETHdaily🔥1 5501 500–1 6251 590✗ +2.5%✓ held– call · – put
29.06.26BTCdaily🔥60 50058 500–62 00059 997✓ -0.8%✓ held– call · – put
29.06.26ETHdaily🔥1 5751 500–1 6251 579✓ +0.2%✓ held– call · – put
28.06.26BTCdaily60 00059 000–61 50060 115✓ +0.2%✓ held✓ call · – put
28.06.26ETHdaily1 5751 525–1 6251 572✓ -0.2%✓ held✓ call · – put
27.06.26BTCdaily🔥61 00058 500–63 50060 381◌ -1.0%✓ held– call · – put
27.06.26ETHdaily🔥1 6001 525–1 6751 582◌ -1.2%✓ held– call · – put
26.06.26BTCquarterly🔥72 00061 000–86 00060 521✗ -19.0%✗ breached– call · – put
26.06.26ETHquarterly🔥2 0001 600–2 7001 580✗ -26.6%✗ breached– call · – put
25.06.26BTCdaily62 50061 500–64 50061 788✗ -1.2%✓ held– call · ✗ put
25.06.26ETHdaily1 7001 625–1 7501 654✗ -2.8%✓ held– call · ✓ put
24.06.26BTCdaily64 00061 500–67 00062 592◌ -2.2%✓ held– call · ✗ put
24.06.26ETHdaily1 7001 600–1 8001 671◌ -1.8%✓ held– call · ✓ put
23.06.26BTCdaily64 00062 000–65 00062 875✗ -1.8%✓ held✓ call · – put
23.06.26ETHdaily🔥1 7251 650–1 7751 687✗ -2.2%✓ held✓ call · – put
22.06.26BTCdaily🔥63 00061 500–64 50064 196✗ +1.9%✓ held– call · – put
22.06.26ETHdaily1 7251 675–1 7751 746✗ +1.2%✓ held✗ call · ✓ put
21.06.26BTCdaily🔥63 50062 500–64 50064 145✗ +1.0%✓ held– call · – put
21.06.26ETHdaily1 7001 675–1 7501 731✗ +1.8%✓ held– call · – put
20.06.26BTCdaily65 50062 000–68 50063 678◌ -2.9%✓ held✓ call · ✗ put
20.06.26ETHdaily1 7501 675–1 8001 726◌ -1.4%✓ held– call · – put
19.06.26BTCweekly🔥65 00063 500–69 00062 547✗ -3.9%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
19.06.26ETHweekly1 7251 650–1 8251 693✗ -1.9%✓ held– call · ✗ put
18.06.26BTCdaily🔥65 50064 000–67 50064 357✗ -1.8%✓ held– call · ✗ put
18.06.26ETHdaily1 8001 700–1 8501 747✗ -3.1%✓ held– call · ✓ put
17.06.26BTCdaily65 00063 000–67 00065 441✓ +0.7%✓ held✗ call · – put
17.06.26ETHdaily1 7501 675–1 8251 784✗ +1.9%✓ held– call · – put
16.06.26BTCdaily65 00062 500–66 50066 323✗ +2.0%✓ held✓ call · – put
16.06.26ETHdaily🔥1 7001 625–1 7501 773✗ +4.1%✗ breached✗ call · – put
15.06.26BTCdaily🔥63 00061 000–65 50065 706✗ +4.1%✗ breached✗ call · – put
15.06.26ETHdaily1 6751 625–1 7251 717✗ +2.5%✓ held✗ call · ✓ put
14.06.26BTCdaily63 50062 000–64 50064 338✗ +1.3%✓ held– call · – put
14.06.26ETHdaily1 6501 600–1 7001 675✗ +1.5%✓ held✓ call · – put
13.06.26BTCdaily🔥62 50061 000–64 50063 780✗ +2.0%✓ held✗ call · – put
13.06.26ETHdaily1 6751 600–1 7251 674✓ -0.1%✓ held✓ call · – put
12.06.26BTCweekly🔥67 00062 000–72 00062 970✗ -6.4%✓ held– call · – put
12.06.26ETHweekly1 7501 625–1 9501 659✗ -5.5%✓ held– call · – put
11.06.26BTCdaily🔥62 50059 500–66 00062 642✓ +0.2%✓ held– call · – put
11.06.26ETHdaily1 6751 600–1 7501 652◌ -1.4%✓ held– call · ✗ put
10.06.26BTCdaily🔥63 00061 000–65 00061 660✗ -2.2%✓ held– call · – put
10.06.26ETHdaily1 6751 575–1 7251 639✗ -2.2%✓ held– call · – put
09.06.26BTCdaily🔥61 50059 000–64 50063 137✗ +2.6%✓ held– call · – put
09.06.26ETHdaily🔥1 6001 475–1 7001 679✗ +4.7%✓ held✗ call · – put
08.06.26BTCdaily🔥61 50059 500–64 00063 194✗ +2.7%✓ held✗ call · – put
08.06.26ETHdaily🔥1 6501 550–1 7251 674◌ +1.4%✓ held✓ call · – put
07.06.26BTCdaily62 00060 000–63 50062 231✓ +0.4%✓ held✗ call · – put
07.06.26ETHdaily🔥1 6501 550–1 7501 612◌ -2.3%✓ held– call · ✓ put
06.06.26BTCdaily🔥66 00062 000–70 00060 980✗ -8.2%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
06.06.26ETHdaily🔥1 8001 625–1 9501 574✗ -14.4%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
05.06.26BTCweekly72 00063 000–79 00062 703✗ -14.8%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
05.06.26ETHweekly2 0001 750–2 3001 669✗ -19.9%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
04.06.26BTCdaily68 00066 000–71 00063 766✗ -6.6%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
04.06.26ETHdaily1 9251 850–2 0251 780✗ -8.2%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
03.06.26BTCdaily71 50069 500–74 00067 156✗ -6.5%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
03.06.26ETHdaily2 0001 925–2 0501 876✗ -6.6%✗ breached– call · ✓ put
02.06.26BTCdaily73 50071 500–75 00070 046✗ -4.9%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
02.06.26ETHdaily🔥2 0001 925–2 0501 982✓ -0.9%✓ held✗ call · – put
01.06.26BTCdaily🔥73 50071 500–75 00072 794✓ -1.0%✓ held– call · – put
01.06.26ETHdaily2 0251 950–2 0501 978✗ -2.4%✓ held✓ call · – put
31.05.26BTCdaily73 50072 000–74 50073 774✓ +0.4%✓ held✓ call · – put
31.05.26ETHdaily2 0251 975–2 0752 021✓ -0.2%✓ held✓ call · ✗ put
30.05.26BTCdaily74 00072 500–75 50073 434✓ -0.8%✓ held– call · – put
30.05.26ETHdaily2 0001 925–2 0502 013✓ +0.6%✓ held✓ call · – put
29.05.26BTCmonthly75 00071 000–79 00073 370◌ -2.2%✓ held– call · ✗ put
29.05.26ETHmonthly2 2001 950–2 5502 004✗ -9.8%✓ held– call · ✗ put
28.05.26BTCdaily76 50074 500–78 00073 292✗ -4.4%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
28.05.26ETHdaily2 1002 050–2 1501 991✗ -5.5%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
27.05.26BTCdaily76 50075 000–78 00075 807✓ -0.9%✓ held– call · ✓ put
27.05.26ETHdaily🔥2 1002 050–2 1752 078✗ -1.1%✓ held✓ call · ✗ put
26.05.26BTCdaily76 50074 500–78 00076 593✓ +0.1%✓ held✗ call · – put
26.05.26ETHdaily🔥2 1002 050–2 1752 094✓ -0.3%✓ held– call · – put
25.05.26BTCdaily🔥77 00075 500–78 50077 225✓ +0.3%✓ held– call · – put
25.05.26ETHdaily🔥2 1502 075–2 2002 109✗ -2.0%✓ held✓ call · ✗ put
24.05.26BTCdaily76 00074 000–79 00076 752✓ +1.0%✓ held– call · ✓ put
24.05.26ETHdaily2 1002 000–2 2002 119✓ +0.9%✓ held✓ call · ✗ put
23.05.26BTCdaily🔥78 00076 000–78 50074 943✗ -4.1%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
23.05.26ETHdaily🔥2 1252 075–2 1752 042✗ -4.1%✗ breached– call · – put
22.05.26BTCweekly79 00077 000–81 00077 385✗ -2.1%✓ held– call · – put
22.05.26ETHweekly2 2002 100–2 3502 128✗ -3.4%✓ held– call · ✗ put
21.05.26BTCdaily77 00075 500–78 50077 664✓ +0.9%✓ held– call · – put
21.05.26ETHdaily2 1002 050–2 1752 131✗ +1.4%✓ held✗ call · – put
20.05.26BTCdaily77 50076 000–79 00077 254✓ -0.3%✓ held– call · ✗ put
20.05.26ETHdaily🔥2 1252 075–2 2002 130✓ +0.2%✓ held– call · ✓ put
19.05.26BTCdaily78 50076 000–80 50077 163◌ -1.7%✓ held– call · – put
19.05.26ETHdaily🔥2 2252 100–2 3752 140✗ -4.0%✓ held✓ call · ✗ put
18.05.26BTCdaily79 00077 000–82 00076 986✗ -2.6%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
18.05.26ETHdaily🔥2 2752 150–2 3752 119✗ -7.4%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
17.05.26BTCdaily79 50078 000–81 00078 139✗ -1.7%✓ held– call · – put
17.05.26ETHdaily2 2502 175–2 3752 185✗ -3.0%✓ held– call · ✗ put
16.05.26BTCdaily🔥80 50078 500–82 00078 411✗ -2.7%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
16.05.26ETHdaily🔥2 2752 225–2 3502 195✗ -3.7%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
15.05.26BTCweekly🔥80 00077 000–81 50080 814✗ +1.0%✓ held– call · – put
15.05.26ETHweekly🔥2 3002 200–2 3752 266✗ -1.5%✓ held– call · – put
14.05.26BTCdaily81 00079 500–82 50079 845✗ -1.4%✓ held– call · ✗ put
14.05.26ETHdaily2 3002 250–2 3752 268✗ -1.4%✓ held– call · – put
13.05.26BTCdaily81 00079 000–82 50080 930✓ -0.1%✓ held– call · – put
13.05.26ETHdaily2 3252 250–2 3752 299◌ -1.1%✓ held– call · ✗ put
12.05.26BTCdaily🔥80 50078 500–82 50080 941✓ +0.5%✓ held✓ call · ✗ put
12.05.26ETHdaily🔥2 3252 275–2 4002 298✗ -1.2%✓ held✓ call · – put
11.05.26BTCdaily80 50078 500–82 00080 728✓ +0.3%✓ held✗ call · – put
11.05.26ETHdaily2 3252 250–2 3752 330✓ +0.2%✓ held– call · – put
10.05.26BTCdaily80 00078 500–81 00080 756✓ +0.9%✓ held✗ call · ✓ put
10.05.26ETHdaily2 3002 250–2 3502 329✗ +1.2%✓ held– call · – put
09.05.26BTCdaily80 50078 500–82 00080 226✓ -0.3%✓ held– call · – put
09.05.26ETHdaily🔥2 3252 250–2 4002 316✓ -0.4%✓ held– call · ✓ put
08.05.26BTCweekly79 00075 000–82 00079 575✓ +0.7%✓ held– call · – put
08.05.26ETHweekly🔥2 3502 275–2 4252 278✗ -3.2%✓ held– call · – put
07.05.26BTCdaily80 00077 000–82 50081 578◌ +1.9%✓ held✗ call · – put
07.05.26ETHdaily2 3502 275–2 4252 345✓ -0.2%✓ held– call · – put
06.05.26BTCdaily79 50077 500–82 00081 413✗ +2.3%✓ held✓ call · – put
06.05.26ETHdaily2 3752 275–2 4502 371✓ -0.2%✓ held✓ call · – put
05.05.26BTCdaily78 50075 500–80 50080 988✗ +3.1%✗ breached✗ call · – put
05.05.26ETHdaily🔥2 3252 250–2 4002 384✗ +2.5%✓ held✗ call · – put
04.05.26BTCdaily77 50075 500–79 50079 772✗ +2.8%✗ breached✓ call · – put
04.05.26ETHdaily2 3002 250–2 3502 366✗ +2.8%✗ breached✗ call · ✓ put
03.05.26BTCdaily77 50076 000–79 00078 392✗ +1.1%✓ held✗ call · – put
03.05.26ETHdaily🔥2 3002 250–2 3252 311✓ +0.5%✓ held✗ call · – put
02.05.26BTCdaily76 00074 000–78 00078 239✗ +2.9%✗ breached– call · – put
02.05.26ETHdaily2 2752 200–2 3252 302✗ +1.2%✓ held✗ call · – put
01.05.26BTCweekly76 00074 000–78 00077 037✗ +1.3%✓ held– call · – put
01.05.26ETHweekly🔥2 3252 225–2 4502 277◌ -2.1%✓ held– call · – put
30.04.26BTCdaily🔥77 50075 000–79 00076 024✗ -1.9%✓ held– call · – put
30.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 2752 200–2 3502 257✓ -0.8%✓ held– call · – put
29.04.26BTCdaily77 00075 000–79 00077 084✓ +0.1%✓ held– call · ✓ put
29.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 3252 250–2 4002 326✓ +0.0%✓ held– call · ✓ put
28.04.26BTCdaily78 00076 000–80 00076 807✗ -1.6%✓ held– call · – put
28.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 3252 250–2 4252 283✗ -1.8%✓ held– call · – put
27.04.26BTCdaily78 00075 500–79 50077 674✓ -0.4%✓ held– call · – put
27.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 3252 250–2 3752 319✓ -0.2%✓ held✓ call · – put
26.04.26BTCdaily78 00076 500–79 00078 030✓ +0.0%✓ held– call · – put
26.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 3252 275–2 3752 330✓ +0.2%✓ held– call · ✓ put
25.04.26BTCdaily🔥77 00074 000–79 00077 559✓ +0.7%✓ held– call · – put
25.04.26ETHdaily2 3252 275–2 4002 317✓ -0.3%✓ held– call · – put
24.04.26BTCmonthly72 00065 000–79 00077 693✗ +7.3%✓ held– call · – put
24.04.26ETHmonthly2 2001 950–2 4002 314✗ +4.9%✓ held✗ call · – put
23.04.26BTCdaily76 00072 500–79 00078 115✗ +2.7%✓ held– call · – put
23.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 3502 250–2 4252 350✓ +0.0%✓ held✓ call · – put
22.04.26BTCdaily🔥75 00072 500–77 50077 991✗ +3.8%✗ breached✓ call · – put
22.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 3002 250–2 4252 390✗ +3.8%✓ held✗ call · ✓ put
21.04.26BTCdaily🔥75 50073 000–78 00076 190✓ +0.9%✓ held– call · – put
21.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 3752 250–2 4752 321◌ -2.3%✓ held– call · – put
20.04.26BTCdaily🔥76 00073 500–77 50074 945✗ -1.4%✓ held– call · ✗ put
20.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 3752 250–2 5002 299✗ -3.3%✓ held– call · ✗ put
19.04.26BTCdaily🔥77 50075 000–78 50075 195✗ -3.1%✓ held– call · – put
19.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 4252 350–2 4752 314✗ -4.8%✗ breached– call · – put
18.04.26BTCdaily73 00070 000–76 00077 033✗ +5.2%✗ breached✗ call · – put
18.04.26ETHdaily2 3502 275–2 4252 406✗ +2.3%✓ held✗ call · – put
17.04.26BTCweekly71 00066 000–75 50075 003✗ +5.3%✓ held– call · – put
17.04.26ETHweekly🔥2 2502 050–2 3752 335✗ +3.6%✓ held– call · – put
16.04.26BTCdaily73 00071 500–75 50074 814✗ +2.4%✓ held– call · – put
16.04.26ETHdaily2 3502 225–2 4002 348✓ -0.1%✓ held– call · – put
15.04.26BTCdaily72 00068 000–75 50073 702◌ +2.3%✓ held✗ call · – put
15.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 3002 125–2 4252 315✓ +0.6%✓ held✓ call · – put
14.04.26BTCdaily71 50069 500–74 50074 570✗ +4.1%✗ breached✓ call · – put
14.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 2002 125–2 3002 376✗ +7.4%✗ breached✗ call · – put
13.04.26BTCdaily72 00070 000–74 00070 787✗ -1.7%✓ held– call · ✓ put
13.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 2502 150–2 3252 187✗ -2.9%✓ held– call · – put
12.04.26BTCdaily72 50071 000–73 50071 735✗ -1.1%✓ held✓ call · ✗ put
12.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 2252 175–2 2752 219✓ -0.3%✓ held✓ call · – put
11.04.26BTCdaily70 00067 000–72 50072 780✗ +3.8%✗ breached✗ call · – put
11.04.26ETHdaily2 2002 125–2 2752 234✗ +1.5%✓ held✗ call · – put
10.04.26BTCweekly🔥69 00066 000–72 00071 652✗ +3.7%✓ held– call · – put
10.04.26ETHweekly2 0501 900–2 2252 184✗ +6.1%✓ held✗ call · – put
09.04.26BTCdaily🔥69 00066 000–72 50071 010◌ +2.8%✓ held✗ call · – put
09.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 1502 000–2 3002 182◌ +1.5%✓ held– call · – put
08.04.26BTCdaily69 00066 500–71 00071 640✗ +3.7%✗ breached✗ call · – put
08.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 1002 025–2 1752 251✗ +6.7%✗ breached✗ call · – put
07.04.26BTCdaily68 00065 500–70 00068 653✓ +1.0%✓ held✓ call · – put
07.04.26ETHdaily2 0752 000–2 1752 103◌ +1.3%✓ held✓ call · – put
06.04.26BTCdaily67 00065 500–68 50069 045✗ +3.0%✗ breached✗ call · – put
06.04.26ETHdaily🔥2 0501 975–2 1002 134✗ +3.9%✗ breached✗ call · – put
05.04.26BTCdaily67 00066 000–68 50066 758✓ -0.4%✓ held✓ call · ✓ put
05.04.26ETHdaily2 0752 025–2 1252 036✗ -1.9%✓ held✓ call · – put
04.04.26BTCdaily67 50065 500–69 00066 979✓ -0.8%✓ held– call · – put
04.04.26ETHdaily2 0501 975–2 1252 053✓ +0.1%✓ held– call · – put
03.04.26BTCweekly68 50065 500–71 00067 030◌ -2.2%✓ held– call · – put
03.04.26ETHweekly2 1002 000–2 2002 068◌ -1.6%✓ held– call · – put
02.04.26BTCdaily68 00065 500–70 00066 836✗ -1.7%✓ held– call · – put
02.04.26ETHdaily2 1001 975–2 2002 053✗ -2.3%✓ held– call · – put
01.04.26BTCdaily67 00065 000–69 00068 806✗ +2.6%✓ held✗ call · – put
01.04.26ETHdaily2 0501 950–2 1252 136✗ +4.0%✗ breached– call · – put
31.03.26BTCdaily67 00064 000–69 00067 286✓ +0.4%✓ held– call · – put
31.03.26ETHdaily🔥2 0001 900–2 1002 052◌ +2.5%✓ held✗ call · – put
30.03.26BTCdaily🔥67 50065 000–69 50067 356✓ -0.2%✓ held– call · – put
30.03.26ETHdaily🔥2 0001 925–2 1002 048✗ +2.4%✓ held– call · – put
29.03.26BTCdaily🔥68 00066 000–69 50066 622◌ -2.1%✓ held– call · ✗ put
29.03.26ETHdaily2 0251 950–2 1252 004◌ -1.1%✓ held– call · – put
28.03.26BTCdaily🔥70 00067 500–73 00066 430✗ -5.4%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
28.03.26ETHdaily2 1252 025–2 2252 004✗ -6.0%✗ breached– call · – put
27.03.26BTCquarterly🔥75 00067 000–90 00068 610✗ -9.3%✓ held– call · – put
27.03.26ETHquarterly🔥2 3002 000–2 9002 067✗ -11.3%✓ held– call · – put
26.03.26BTCdaily70 50068 000–73 00070 020✓ -0.7%✓ held✓ call · ✓ put
26.03.26ETHdaily2 1252 025–2 2252 120✓ -0.2%✓ held– call · – put
25.03.26BTCdaily🔥70 00067 000–72 50071 047✗ +1.5%✓ held– call · – put
25.03.26ETHdaily2 1252 025–2 2252 169✗ +2.0%✓ held– call · – put
24.03.26BTCdaily69 50066 500–73 00070 935✗ +2.0%✓ held– call · ✓ put
24.03.26ETHdaily2 0751 950–2 1502 157✗ +3.8%✗ breached✗ call · – put
23.03.26BTCdaily🔥69 50067 000–73 00068 212✗ -1.9%✓ held– call · ✗ put
23.03.26ETHdaily🔥2 1002 000–2 2252 043✗ -2.8%✓ held– call · ✗ put
22.03.26BTCdaily🔥70 00069 500–72 00069 029✗ -1.4%✗ breached– call · – put
22.03.26ETHdaily🔥2 1502 100–2 2002 102✗ -2.3%✓ held✓ call · ✗ put
21.03.26BTCdaily🔥71 00068 500–73 00070 747✓ -0.4%✓ held– call · – put
21.03.26ETHdaily🔥2 1752 100–2 3002 157✓ -0.9%✓ held– call · – put
20.03.26BTCweekly70 00067 000–73 00070 763✗ +1.1%✓ held– call · – put
20.03.26ETHweekly2 1502 000–2 2252 149✓ -0.1%✓ held✗ call · ✗ put
19.03.26BTCdaily74 00071 500–76 00070 102✗ -5.6%✗ breached– call · – put
19.03.26ETHdaily2 3002 175–2 4002 167✗ -6.1%✗ breached– call · ✗ put
18.03.26BTCdaily73 00070 500–76 00073 820◌ +1.1%✓ held– call · – put
18.03.26ETHdaily2 2752 150–2 4002 317◌ +1.8%✓ held– call · – put
17.03.26BTCdaily72 00070 000–75 00074 330✗ +3.1%✓ held– call · – put
17.03.26ETHdaily🔥2 1752 075–2 3002 330✗ +6.7%✗ breached✗ call · – put
16.03.26BTCdaily🔥72 00070 500–76 00073 563✗ +2.1%✓ held– call · ✓ put
16.03.26ETHdaily🔥2 1002 025–2 2002 255✗ +6.9%✗ breached✗ call · – put
15.03.26BTCdaily🔥71 50069 500–73 00071 479✓ -0.0%✓ held– call · – put
15.03.26ETHdaily2 1002 025–2 1752 106✓ +0.3%✓ held– call · – put
14.03.26BTCdaily70 00068 000–73 00070 595✓ +0.8%✓ held✓ call · – put
14.03.26ETHdaily2 0501 950–2 1502 079◌ +1.4%✓ held✓ call · – put
13.03.26BTCweekly69 00066 000–71 50071 556✗ +3.6%✗ breached– call · – put
13.03.26ETHweekly🔥2 0001 900–2 1002 098✗ +4.7%✓ held✗ call · – put
12.03.26BTCdaily69 50067 000–71 50069 746✓ +0.4%✓ held– call · – put
12.03.26ETHdaily2 0251 925–2 1002 038✓ +0.6%✓ held– call · – put
11.03.26BTCdaily🔥68 00063 000–72 00069 650◌ +2.4%✓ held– call · – put
11.03.26ETHdaily2 0001 875–2 1002 014✓ +0.7%✓ held✓ call · – put
10.03.26BTCdaily68 00065 000–70 50070 362✗ +3.4%✓ held– call · – put
10.03.26ETHdaily1 9751 875–2 0752 051✗ +3.7%✓ held– call · – put
09.03.26BTCdaily🔥69 00066 000–73 50067 408◌ -2.4%✓ held– call · ✓ put
09.03.26ETHdaily2 0001 875–2 1001 981✓ -1.0%✓ held✓ call · – put
08.03.26BTCdaily🔥69 00067 000–71 00067 314✗ -2.5%✓ held– call · ✓ put
08.03.26ETHdaily2 0001 950–2 1001 954✗ -2.3%✓ held✓ call · – put
07.03.26BTCdaily🔥69 50067 500–71 50067 774◌ -2.5%✓ held– call · – put
07.03.26ETHdaily🔥2 0251 950–2 1251 978◌ -2.4%✓ held– call · ✗ put

Max pain drift: the level that runs away

HOW FAR MAX PAIN STILL MOVES BEFORE SETTLEMENT · mean |shift| from the final value, % of spotdrag — zoom · double-click — reset

How to read: X axis — days to settlement; Y axis — by how many percent of spot max pain will, on average, still shift from its current to its final value. BTC: 7 days out, MP still shifts by 2.8% of spot on average; ETH: 7 days out — 3.4%. Hover for per-day values.

Max pain is not a point but a moving target: BTC — 7 days out MP still shifts by 2.8% of spot on average · ETH — 3.4%. One more reason the "magnet" fails as a forecast: the level drifts to the price, not the other way around.

Methodology (so you can catch us out)

Levels are frozen from an open-interest snapshot one day before settlement (~08:00 UTC, ±2h tolerance). Actuals are official Deribit settlement prices (° = proxy from 08:00 spot, a handful of rows). Max pain verdict: ✓ deviation <1% · ◌ 1–3% with the gap narrowing · ✗ everything else. The range is the "MM safe zone": the band where the premium collected by market makers still covers the payouts; the verdict is whether settlement closed inside the bounds frozen a day earlier. Walls are the largest call/put strikes by OI; tested against hourly spot over the final day (intra-hour pierces are invisible — an honest limitation). 🔥 significance is fixed before the run: top 25% of notional for its type, or a wall ≥20% of total OI. The window is 4 months of a mostly falling market; the ledger is kept by code and is never edited after the fact.

Today's max pain, range and walls are on the live board. The verdict on them lands every morning at 08:30 in @indiciadesk.

📡 Expiry watch — a private alert one day before settlement: max pain, MM breakeven bounds and walls for the nearest expiry, plus a signal the moment price exits the range. Set it up via the bot → How it works →

Frequently asked questions

What is max pain and how is it calculated?

Max pain is the strike at which the most option value burns by expiry — the price where call and put holders collectively hurt the most. It is calculated from open interest: for every possible settlement price you sum the payouts across all BTC or ETH calls and puts, and find the level where the total payout to option holders is smallest. That level is max pain.

Does max pain actually work?

We put the “magnet” theory on trial across 352 BTC/ETH expiries — exact hits are just 33%, and yesterday's spot predicts it better. The more reliable frame is the market-maker breakeven range: it held settlement 82% of the time. The full board and methodology are above on this page.

How do you use max pain?

As a gravity zone and context near expiry, not an exact target. Read max pain together with the option walls (the largest call and put strikes by open interest) and the MM breakeven range, rather than trading it blind.

📊 Data — from Deribit (options) and Hyperliquid (futures). Both venues are our partners: registering through our links gets you −10% / −4% on fees; it does not affect the analysis.

A journal of the system's decisions, not investment advice. Past frequencies don't guarantee the future. © 2026 INDICIA DESK.

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