Report archive · 01.09.2026
Case No. 20260901 · 01.09.2026
Case № 20260901 · 01.09.2026 08:17 UTC · BTC $78,216 / ETH $2,461 · analysis: Fable 5 by Anthropic
Futures (Hyperliquid). Both assets made their turn inside the window this week. In BTC the whales spent the week pulling the position toward long, but over the last day part of that move went back into short. ETH is the exact opposite: a week of building the short, and the last day gave some of it back to long. In aggregate the group stood short in both assets and still does — what's moving isn't the side, it's the tempo. Leverage in the group rose at the same time: 64 overleveraged wallets against 49 yesterday, and none of them is anywhere near a margin call yet.
Options (Deribit). Two positions, and today for the first time in a week they look opposite ways. First — the block trades: six new structures in one day, and most of them set a ceiling rather than chase a move up; the two biggest sell exactly the boundary the whales were buying through backspreads yesterday. Second — the quiet accumulation: over the week the biggest growth in BTC open interest gathered on far September calls, meaning small lots were stacking precisely the opposite of what the blocks just did. The loud trace and the quiet one split apart exactly one day after they coincided.
Money (the Hyperliquid border). The border tape last updated on 31.08, so the window here is the seven days to 31.08, not to today. Across those seven days the bridge mostly carried USDC cash, and it moved outward: withdrawals noticeably exceeded deposits, and 87% of the whole outflow landed on exchange deposit addresses — Coinbase first of all. Coins through Unit went the other way: nearly three times more BTC came in than left. The picture is the same as a week ago: cash leaves the venue, coins arrive.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
What the funds are doing. This camp measures what neither Deribit nor Hyperliquid can see: how much money institutions put into the coin itself through spot ETFs. Funds trade on business days only, and the freshest data here is for Monday 31.08 — there are no figures for today yet.
In BTC the weekly inflow is $804M against $1,958M the week before — less than half the previous pace. But Monday itself came in as a $217M inflow, and nearly all of it fell on one fund, BlackRock's IBIT.
In ETH the pace hasn't changed: $797M against $782M the week before, and that's the 93rd percentile of the whole weekly history. This contradicts the whales: while the whales on options close off the top, institutions keep buying the asset itself at the same pace as a week ago.
What the options market says. This camp measures not the mood in the news but the price of insurance: how much protection against a move costs. Our fear and greed index stands at 87 out of 100 — exactly where it was yesterday. BTC monthly vol is meanwhile cheaper than in 80% of the hours since February, and the ETH picture is the same. This camp is silent: options price in neither a rise nor a fall — they price in quiet, and they've done so for a second straight day with no reaction at all to the whale turnaround.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom for the right to hold a leveraged position. BTC funding rose from +0.0068% yesterday to +0.0115% today in the eight-hour equivalent — longs are paying shorts more than a day ago. The basis is positive but thin: in ETH it's nearly zero. This confirms the whales: the group of big accounts stands short against a crowd that pays every day for the right to stay long.
What the crowd is doing. This camp is the retail perp accounts on Bybit: where the mass of small players stands. In BTC it's nearly flat at 52% long; in ETH it's 63% long against 65% yesterday. So in ETH the crowd still stands against the whales, though the gap narrowed a little over the day. This confirms the whales: the widest gap between the mass and the big accounts is once again in ETH today.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether positions are already being broken by force. Among the top Hyperliquid whales, none was force-closed over the day. On OKX swaps the day closed $196k, 80% of it shorts. The week's volume is far bigger at $4.9M, but there it's longs that dominate — so the day broke from the weekly picture.
The last day gave only 4% of the weekly volume — an even background with no acceleration. This camp is silent: there's more fuel beneath the market, but no ignition yet.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
💎DEEP
A wallet self-signed "MoonpathCliff". LONG BTC $39.4M at 40× leverage, entry $78,829, uPnL +$28k, liquidation $64,444 — 18% below spot. Account $4.6M. A week ago the position didn't exist at all, and over the last day another 200 BTC was added to it: a fresh entry being built up straight away.
A wallet with no public label. LONG BTC $31.6M at 40×, entry $78,829 — the same entry level as the previous one. uPnL +$23k, liquidation $71,272, only 10% below spot. Account $3.9M. The position already existed a week ago and has been trimmed slightly since.
A wallet self-signed "VBVIT". SHORT BTC $47.1M at 10×, entry $78,431, uPnL −$273k, liquidation $106,260 — 35% above spot, so his margin of safety is wide. Account $17.9M. A week ago the short was bigger: it's been cut over that time, not grown.
A wallet self-signed "Machi Big Brother". LONG ETH $99.5M at 25×, entry $2,455, uPnL +$909k, liquidation $2,314 — just 7% below spot, the tightest liquidation among the big positions. The position already existed a week ago and has grown since.
The biggest gain among the open positions. LONG ETH $49.5M with entry $1,936 and just 4× leverage, uPnL +$10.8M, held for at least a week. The contrast with the previous portrait is the lesson: the same side of the market, the only difference is when they entered and with how much leverage.
Case №1017 · bear call spread BTC — sold 150 calls at $80,000, bought 150 calls at $96,000, term 25.09.2026. Net premium in the whale's favour ≈ +4.08 BTC (≈ +$322k).
Case №1018 · bear call spread BTC — sold 150 calls at $80,000, bought 150 calls at $90,000, term 25.09.2026. Net premium ≈ +3.65 BTC (≈ +$287k).
Case №1019 · condor BTC — bought 37.5 puts at $75,500, sold 37.5 puts at $78,000, sold 37.5 calls at $78,500, bought 37.5 calls at $81,500, term 03.09.2026. Net premium ≈ +0.60 BTC (≈ +$47k).
Case №1020 · call diagonal BTC — sold 20 calls at $80,000 with term 04.09.2026, bought 20 calls at $81,000 with term 11.09.2026. Here the whale paid instead: net premium ≈ −0.11 BTC (≈ −$8k).
Case №1021 · put diagonal BTC — bought 13 puts at $76,000 with term 25.09.2026, sold 13 puts at $79,000 with term 27.11.2026. Net premium ≈ +0.63 BTC (≈ +$50k).
Case №1022 · put diagonal BTC — bought 13 puts at $78,000 with term 25.09.2026, sold 13 puts at $79,000 with term 27.11.2026. Net premium ≈ +0.51 BTC (≈ +$40k).
Together the day's two biggest structures brought the whales ≈ +7.7 BTC (≈ +$609k) of premium up front, and both sell the same $80,000 strike on the September expiry. Their profile is identical: the money stays with the whale as long as BTC hasn't climbed above the sold level; beyond it the loss grows up to the bought ceiling and stops there. №1019 stands apart: this whale positioned for price staying inside a corridor only $500 wide into Thursday — the narrowest structure in our registry's entire history.
Whale flow on perps. BTC: a $75M shift into long over 7 days, but $22M went back into short over the last day — the reversal happened inside the window. ETH: $56M into short over 7 days, and $37M into long over the last day — the mirror reversal, and in ETH it has already given back two thirds of the weekly move. Both assets ran one way this week and changed their mind in the final day.
Gamma flip shift. The BTC flip sits at $66,420 and rose 2,176 over 7 days. The walls crawled too: the call wall +2,000, the put wall +17,000. The ETH flip is at $2,258, its put wall down 360 over the week. When support pulls up that sharply while the ceiling barely moves, it means the market makers are ceding the lower level and moving their defence higher.
Fear premium trend. The premium in this window is −0.5 (IV 37.4 against actual HV 37.9) and it's melting at 7.6 per 7 days. Options are still cheaper than the market's real movement, but the gap nearly closed over the week: the regime of underpriced protection persists, though right at its edge.
Open-interest growth by window. BTC over 7 days: $85,000 +5,506 calls (78% on 25SEP26), $70,000 +4,453 puts, $78,000 +4,120 puts. ETH over 7 days: $2,150 +16,512 puts (90% on 25SEP26), $3,000 +14,791 calls, $2,100 +14,333 puts. In BTC the upper calls were being stacked quietly all week — and today's blocks sold the top: the same weekly level accumulated and sold by different hands.
Changing of the guard. On 28.08 two BTC risk reversals from cases №7 and №27 closed early, their open interest dropping 41%. On 31.08 four backspreads positioned for a strong move up took their place, and today, one day later, six structures — most of which cap the top. Over 7 days the registry logged 231 confirmed structures: 62 bullish, 95 bearish, 22 on volatility, 52 on range. The week's overall lean is bearish, and yesterday's foursome was the exception in it, not the turn.
Max pain drift. On the nearest expiry the point moved −1,500 over 7 days — the flow is dragging the consensus down while spot itself has barely moved over the same stretch.
Levels by expiry (Deribit and Bybit books combined into one; our study across 354 expiries showed price matching max pain exactly only about a third of the time, so it's a reference point, not a magnet)
· BTC 02.09 — max pain $78,500 (Deribit $78,500 · Bybit $78,500) · put wall $77,000 (162 contracts) · call wall $80,500 (222 contracts)
· BTC 25.09 — max pain $70,000 (Deribit $70,000 · Bybit $75,000) · put wall $70,000 (7,590 contracts) · call wall $70,000 (10,992 contracts)
· ETH 02.09 — max pain $2,460 (Deribit $2,440 · Bybit $2,460) · put wall $2,420 (823 contracts) · call wall $2,660 (763 contracts)
· ETH 25.09 — max pain $2,150 (Deribit $2,100 · Bybit $2,200) · put wall $2,100 (38,120 contracts) · call wall $3,000 (40,752 contracts)
The market makers' break-even corridor: BTC $77,000–$80,000, ETH $2,400–$2,520. Spot sits inside both today, and the $80,000 strike sold today stands exactly on the upper edge of the bitcoin corridor.
Put/Call through time. BTC: month 0.53, week 0.60, now 0.56. ETH: 0.52 / 0.54 / 0.54. In BTC the weekly value sits above both the monthly and the current one — downside protection was being stacked more actively a few days ago than it is now; in ETH the ratio isn't moving at all.
Skew by tenor in percentiles (against our own hourly history since February)
· BTC: 2-day 30th percentile, weekly 18th, monthly 20th
· ETH: 2-day 24th, weekly 17th, monthly 17th
In both assets the near term is dearer relative to its own norm than the far one: the market is willing to pay for the next few days and almost nothing for a month ahead.
Gamma levels. The regime is positive on both assets: BTC flip $66,420, ETH flip $2,258 — spot is well above both, so dealers work to damp moves. The hollows with no hedge: BTC $73,000–$74,000, ETH $2,350–$2,400 — that's where a break lower would accelerate rather than slow. The stress test shows the asymmetry: at −2% BTC is still inside the zone where dealers damp the move, while at +2% ETH already passes its $2,500 call wall, and resistance above it thins out.
Fuel beneath the market and above it (Hyperliquid liquidation heat map, snapshot 06:46 UTC)
· BTC: $46.9M of longs in the $74,942–$77,308 band, $23.5M of shorts in $80,464–$82,830 — twice as much beneath the market as above it.
· ETH: $20.3M of longs in $2,353–$2,428 against $10.0M of shorts in $2,527–$2,601 — also twofold, also pointing down.
The day's main change is right here: yesterday the ETH asymmetry was tenfold ($103.3M against $10.3M), today it's merely twofold. That much long fuel in ETH either got closed within a day or shifted outside the measured band. In BTC the move ran the other way: the fuel beneath the market grew.
This is a relief map of risk, not a forecast: liquidations lag price, they don't lead it.
🆓TAIL
signal trades win last total since Dust Strategy V2 37 5% −$1,125 +$92,969 21.03 Dust Strategy V1 31 10% −$1,125 +$37,031 20.03 Volatility Convergence V3 22 45% −$507 +$14,608 26.05 Skew 2.0 V2 35 37% −$259 +$12,470 26.05 Fear Flash V2 21 33% −$255 +$3,440 16.05
What lost and why. Deepest in the red are Wheel Trail V8 (−$7,088), Against the Current · top V1 (−$6,189) and Wheel Trail V6 (−$6,081). They share one trait: these are signals that chase continuation of a move, and this market hasn't offered continuations for a month — in a damping regime, where dealers hold price inside a corridor, that logic systematically pays for entry and never gets the move. The day's most profitable signal, Dust Strategy V2, wins only 5 trades in a hundred — and still leads the table in money. Win rate isn't money.
Yesterday the system judged the market "risk tilted down". Over the day BTC moved +0.2% — the fall didn't happen, so the fear built into the positions didn't materialise in price. A week ago the conclusion was the same, and BTC then moved −2.2% over the day — the direction held. The same conclusion worked once out of two over the week, and that's a normal frequency for an analysis of positioning rather than a forecast.
The scenarios opened on 29.08 were closed by the code today. "The corridor holds under max pain" (weighed at 45%) confirmed: price never left the range for the whole term and finished at $78,451. "Burn-up through the short fuel" (32%) not confirmed — the high of $79,019 fell short of the $80,000 level by less than 1.3%. "Slide into the void under the corridor" (23%) not confirmed either — the low of $77,478 stayed above the $76,000 level. Three scenarios from 30.08 close today at 09:23 UTC, three from 31.08 tomorrow.
Score by forecast type (the journal's whole history, computed by code)
· "The corridor holds" — 3 of 10 confirmed, 2 more partial, 3 cancelled at the boundary
· "Burn-up through the short fuel" — 4 of 10, 1 cancelled at the boundary
· "Squeeze up into the short fuel" — 4 of 10, 4 cancelled at the boundary
· "Slide under the gamma flip" — 4 of 10, 4 cancelled at the boundary
The weakest type is "The corridor holds": 3 confirmations of 10 issued — worse than a coin toss. We don't remove it, because in a third of the cases it gets cancelled at the boundary before its term rather than being wrong — but today's 45% has to be weighed with exactly that score in hand.
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Radar is assembled automatically from live Deribit / Hyperliquid / OKX data · time-stamped snapshot. A journal of the system's decisions, not investment advice. © 2026 INDICIA DESK.