Trading idea check for BTC and ETH
Describe it in words. We write the exact rule, freeze it before the run, test it against a baseline on our derivatives history, and show every miss.
The pre-check opens from a link in that email, or in our Telegram bot. No password. We use the address for this check and for one weekly letter with new verdicts, including the ones that failed. One click to stop. The verdict is paid, from $29.
Questions before you start? Ask us in Telegram or write to us here.
Payment is taken when you order and does not depend on the verdict. Full refund if you change your mind before the rule is frozen.
This draft is saved for 30 days, with a link to come back to it in your email or Telegram. After you order, every status change and the finished card reach you by email, and by Telegram if you connect it.
A real card from our own pilot. Not a client result. Numbers are from the out-of-sample period, BTC.
“The weekend CME gap always gets filled.”
The fingerprint and the time are sent to you before any result exists. If we read your idea wrong, version 2 is free and both verdicts stay on the card.
Every idea we test goes into a public ledger, the same way yours will if you choose to share it. “Hold” mostly means in sample so far; out-of-sample re-tests are under way and will be filed the same way.
Ledger snapshot 2026-11-03 18:14 UTC.
A sharp jump in BTC implied volatility within a few hours is followed by a bigger move over the next 24 hours.
2024 to May 2026: 66 events, the average 24-hour move after a jump was 3.4% against 1.6% on a normal day. May to October 2026: 13 events, 1.4% against 1.3%, no real difference. It held in one period and not in the next, and it never told the direction.
Options, DVOL
Price gets pulled toward max pain before options settle.
482 BTC and ETH expiries since March 2026: settlement hit max pain in 37% of them, and yesterday’s price was the better forecast. The famous magnet was not there.
Price vs options, 3 November 2026
When perps get extremely expensive or cheap against spot, price snaps back over the next week.
BTC: in the most extreme 5% of readings the 7-day edge was +0.7% (t = 3.1). ETH pointed the same way but was not significant, so the idea only stands for BTC.
Futures and perps
The rule is frozen before anyone sees a result, so it cannot be bent to look green. A changed rule is a new version, and both verdicts stay.
One message in plain words. No code, no jargon needed.
SecondsConfirm your email or Telegram, open the pre-check: exact conditions, thresholds, five dates when it would have fired. You say “yes, that is my idea”.
Free, as many edits as you likeAfter payment the rule is hashed and time-stamped. You get the fingerprint at once.
Seconds after paymentRun against a baseline and a placebo, after costs, then reviewed by a person. Verdict, five gates, every miss with its date.
Within 48 hours, Pro within 24. We notify you by email or Telegram the moment it is readyTick what your idea needs and see how much history it gets. One option-chain condition and the whole rule lives from March 2026. You see this before you pay.
window starts
— months of history
Over 480 Deribit expiries our corridor held 82% of the time. A band of the same width around yesterday’s price held 90%. So the corridor’s position adds nothing, and the page says so. Your idea gets the same treatment.
Source: INDICIA docket, 482 expiries on 3 November 2026.
Every card runs the same five gates and ends with a grade from A to F. You see which part of your idea works and which part is ballast.
“Undetermined” is also an answer: on this history the idea does not differ from noise. The pre-check tells you beforehand whether there are enough events, so this verdict is paid like any other.
If the data the pre-check accepted fails on our side, you get the money back.
One check is cheaper than one bad trade. Subscriptions add beacons: we watch your passed rules on live data and re-test them every month.
Our own archive, collected from public exchange APIs: hourly snapshots of the whole Deribit BTC and ETH option chain since 10 March 2026, hourly DVOL and funding since May 2024, daily candles since 2020, spot ETF flows since January 2024, and the positions of every account in our Hyperliquid whale registry every 30 minutes since July 2026.
We sell the verdict, not the data. The raw archive is not for sale at any level.
No. Describe the idea the way you would explain it to a friend. We write the rule and you confirm it before anything runs.
The exact conditions, hashed and time-stamped before the run. You get the fingerprint at once. If the rule changes later, it becomes version 2 and both verdicts stay on the card.
Some series are short. Option-chain history starts in March 2026, so a rule that uses it has only seen that market. The pre-check shows the window before you pay.
The pre-check counts them first. Below 30 we do not sell the check in that form and suggest a looser condition instead.
Each pre-check runs a model and a count on our server. A confirmed email or a Telegram account keeps bots out and saves your draft for 30 days. No password, one weekly letter, one click to stop. There is a daily limit of free pre-checks per person; you see it only if you reach it.
The pre-check only counts history. The verdict is a person and a test harness working on your frozen rule, against a baseline and a placebo, after costs.
Not unless you agree. If you do, it appears anonymously in the ledger 30 days after the verdict. On request we delete it.
By email, and by Telegram if you connect it on the order page. You get a message when the rule is frozen, if we have a question, and the moment the card is ready. The order page shows the status at any time.
No. You get the verdict card, kept for you for good. The data stays with us.
Did not find your answer? Ask us in Telegram, or write here.
Describe it, confirm your email or Telegram, see the rule and the window for free. Pay only for the verdict.