Price below the 200-day moving average: is it a bear market? We checked BTC and ETH since 2018
Not visible in historyA popular idea: when price is below the 200-day moving average, the market is bearish and you should not expect a rise. We wrote it as one exact rule, time-stamped it before counting and ran it on Binance daily candles for BTC and ETH from March 2018 to August 2026, 3,078 days per coin.
The direction matches the idea: after days below the average, price rose less. But random shifts of the dates often give the same gap, and since 2021 the picture is reversed. So by our rule the idea is not visible in history.
The rule we counted
A simple average of 200 daily closes (00:00 UTC), including the current day. A day counts as “below” if the close is under the average, otherwise “above”.
For every day from March 2018 to August 2026 we took the price change over the next 90 days and compared days below the average with days above it. The change we compare is the typical one, averaged on a log scale, not the arithmetic mean.
An idea counts as visible in history only if days below the average are worse on both coins and random shifts of the dates give the same gap in fewer than 10% of tries. Shifting the dates at random means taking the same run of “below” and “above” days and placing it at another point in the calendar, to see how often chance alone gives a gap that size. Rules time-stamped on 5 November 2026, before the count.
What history showed
| BTC | ETH | |
|---|---|---|
| Days counted | 3,078 | 3,078 |
| Share of days below the average | 48% | 50% |
| Average change over 90 days after a day below | +2.5% | −0.4% |
| Average change over 90 days after a day above | +10.9% | +8.9% |
| Average change over 90 days after any day | +6.8% | +4.2% |
| Price rose over 90 days: after days below / above | 49% / 59% | 53% / 55% |
| Random date shifts give the same or a bigger gap | in 14% of tries | in 10.3% of tries |
On both coins the direction is what the idea says. But we set the 10% bar before counting, and neither coin cleared it: BTC 14%, ETH 10.3%.
Since 2021 the picture is reversed. BTC: +3.7% over 90 days after days below the average against +1.6% after days above it. ETH: +4.5% against −0.1%. The whole gap in favour of the idea comes from 2018 to 2020.
Crossings below the average looked different on the two coins. BTC crossed below the average 32 times, and 90 days later price was higher in 69% of cases. ETH crossed 27 times, higher in 41%. This is a description, not a separate test.
What this does not mean
It does not mean the 200-day average is useless. We checked one popular wording over a 90-day horizon. Another horizon, another average or an extra condition is a different rule.
Nor does it mean price does better below the average. We did not test the reverse direction since 2021 in advance, so we only describe it.
Short answers
Does price below the 200-day moving average mean a bear market?
By our rule it is not visible in history. After days below the average BTC gained 2.5% over 90 days on average, after days above it 10.9%. But random date shifts give the same gap in 14% of tries, and since 2021 the gap points the other way.
What happens after price crosses below the average?
BTC crossed below it 32 times, and 90 days later price was higher in 69% of cases. ETH: 27 crossings, higher in 41%. This is a description; we did not test crossings separately.
Why 90 days?
We chose and time-stamped the horizon before counting, so we could not pick the best-looking one afterwards. 30 and 180 days were counted for reference only.
Limits of this check
- The 90-day windows of neighbouring days overlap, so 3,078 days are not 3,078 independent cases.
- Binance spot only; other exchanges and futures were not checked.
- One main horizon, 90 days, chosen before counting. We also counted 30 and 180 days for reference: neither cleared the bar on both coins.
Your version is a different rule
Your version with another average, horizon or an extra condition is a different rule, and that is what a check is for. Describe it in words and get the free pre-check.
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Not client results: our own check. Data: Binance daily candles for BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT. This describes the past and is not a forecast or investment advice.