Report archive · 31.08.2026
Case No. 20260831 · 31.08.2026
Case № 20260831 · 31.08.2026 08:20 UTC · BTC $78,033 / ETH $2,435 · analysis: Fable 5 by Anthropic
Futures (Hyperliquid). A week ago the whales were pulling BTC toward long at a moderate pace; over the last day the step was bigger than the whole previous week's — that's acceleration, not steady drift. ETH is the mirror image and it's accelerating too, only into short. Leverage inside the watched group is lower than yesterday: 49 overleveraged wallets against 60, one of them close to a margin call.
Options (Deribit). Two positions, and today, for the first time in a week, they look the same way. First — the block trades: four large structures of one type, all on September, all for a strong move up. Second — the quiet accumulation: over the week the biggest growth in open interest gathered on far September calls, meaning the same levels were being stacked in small lots too, outside the block tape. It's a rare day when the loud trace and the quiet one coincide.
Money (the Hyperliquid border). The border tape last updated on 30.08, so the window here is the seven days to 30.08, not to today. Across those seven days the bridge mostly carried USDC cash, and it moved outward: withdrawals noticeably exceeded deposits, and 89% of the outflow landed on exchange deposit addresses — Coinbase first of all. Coins through Unit went the other way: more BTC came in than left. Cash is leaving the venue, coins are arriving.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
What the funds are doing. This camp measures what neither Deribit nor Hyperliquid can see: how much money institutions put into the coin itself through spot ETFs. Funds trade on business days only, so there's no fresh weekend data — the last trading day here is Friday 28.08.
In BTC the inflow was cut in half: $924M over the week against $1,918M the week before. Friday itself was an outflow of $202M — ARKB and BITB sold the most.
In ETH it's the reverse: $824M against $697M the week before, the 94th percentile of the whole weekly history. This contradicts the whales: fund money flows exactly where the whales are leaving, and weakens where the whales are returning.
What the options market says. This camp measures the price of insurance, not the mood in the news: how much protection against a move costs. Our fear and greed index stands at 86 out of 100 — exactly where it was yesterday. BTC monthly vol is cheaper than in 83% of the hours since February, ETH's — than in 81%. This camp is silent: options price in neither a rise nor a fall — they price in quiet.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom for the right to hold a leveraged position. BTC funding rose from +0.0007% yesterday to +0.0068% today — longs are paying shorts more than a day ago. The basis is still positive, but thin. This confirms the whales: the tilt toward long in BTC shows up in two independent sources of measurement at once.
What the crowd is doing. This camp is the retail perp accounts on Bybit: where the mass of small players stands. In BTC it's nearly flat at 53% long, while in ETH it's 65% long — in ETH the crowd stands exactly against what the whales are doing. This confirms the whales: the gap between the mass and the big accounts is widest today precisely in ETH.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether positions are already being broken by force. Over the day OKX swaps closed $969k, 91% of it longs; over the week $5.2M, 72% longs.
The last day gave 19% of the weekly volume — an even background with no acceleration. On Hyperliquid one whale was force-closed for $5.0M over the day. This camp is silent: there's no pressure that would tip into a cascade yet.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
💎DEEP
A wallet with no public label. LONG BTC $40.2M at 40× leverage, entry $78,829, uPnL −$385k, liquidation $70,862 — 9% below spot. Account $4.5M. The position already existed a week ago; it's been added to since.
A wallet self-signed "MoonpathCliff". LONG BTC $39.0M at 40×, entry $78,686, uPnL −$301k, liquidation $64,490 — 17% below spot. Account $5.0M. A week ago the position didn't exist at all: a fresh entry, not a build-up.
A wallet self-signed "Machi Big Brother". LONG ETH $100.5M at 25×, entry $2,454, uPnL −$459k, liquidation $2,326 — only 5% below spot, the tightest liquidation among the big ones. Over the day he added 5,150 ETH — moving toward more, not toward the exit.
The biggest gain among the tracked positions. LONG ETH $48.9M with entry $1,936 and just 4× leverage, uPnL +$10.1M, held for at least a week. The contrast with the previous portrait is the lesson: same side of the market, the only difference is when they entered and with how much leverage.
Case №1013 · call backspread BTC — sold 200 calls at $81,000, bought 400 calls at $88,000, term 25.09.2026. Net premium in the whale's favour ≈ +1.90 BTC (≈ +$148k).
Case №1014 · call backspread BTC — sold 100 calls at $79,000, bought 200 calls at $96,000, term 25.09.2026. Net premium ≈ +2.73 BTC (≈ +$213k).
Case №1015 · call backspread BTC — sold 100 calls at $79,000, bought 200 calls at $95,000, term 25.09.2026. Net premium ≈ +2.69 BTC (≈ +$210k).
Case №1016 · call backspread BTC — sold 100 calls at $80,000, bought 200 calls at $94,000, term 25.09.2026. Net premium ≈ +2.20 BTC (≈ +$172k).
Together: 1,500 contracts and ≈ +9.5 BTC (≈ +$743k) of net premium collected up front. The profile is identical in all four: a sold near ceiling finances twice the count of far calls. The position lives while the market either stands still or goes very far up; its worst outcome is a stop exactly at the sold strike.
Whale flow on perps. BTC: a $55M shift into long over 7 days, $89M of it in the last day alone — meaning the early days of the week ran the other way, and the reversal happened just now. ETH: $82M into short over 7 days, $61M of it in the last day — acceleration without a reversal, the whale simply pressing the same thought harder.
Gamma flip shift. The BTC flip sits at $66,325 and rose 2,368 over 7 days. The walls crawled too: the call wall +2,000, the put wall +17,000. When support pulls up that sharply while the ceiling barely moves, it means the market makers are ceding the lower level and moving their defence higher.
Fear premium trend. The premium in this window is −1.1 (IV 36.5 against actual HV 37.7) and it's melting at 8.0 per 7 days. Options are cheaper than the market's real movement, and the gap narrowed over the week — the regime of underpriced protection persists, but not as deep.
Open-interest growth by window. BTC over 7 days: $85,000 +7,745 calls (82% on 25SEP26), $70,000 +5,084 puts, $82,000 +4,934 calls (78% on 4SEP26). ETH over 7 days: $2,200 +18,069 puts, $3,000 +17,123 calls, $2,150 +16,585 puts (90% on 25SEP26). BTC's upper calls and ETH's lower puts were being stacked at the same time — the same two-asset split, only visible on options.
Changing of the guard. On 28.08 two BTC risk reversals from cases №7 and №27 closed early, their open interest dropping 41%. On 31.08 four backspreads took their place. Over 7 days the registry logged 249 confirmed structures: 62 bullish, 102 bearish, 25 on volatility, 60 on range — so the week's overall lean is still bearish, and today's foursome runs against it.
Max pain drift. On the nearest expiry the point moved +8,500 over 7 days — the flow is dragging the consensus upward faster than spot itself moves.
Levels by expiry (Deribit and Bybit books combined; our study across 352 expiries showed price matching max pain exactly only about a third of the time, so it's a reference point, not a magnet)
· BTC 01.09 — max pain $78,250 (Deribit $78,500 · Bybit $78,000) · put wall $72,000 (383 contracts) · call wall $83,000 (266 contracts)
· BTC 25.09 — max pain $70,000 · put wall $70,000 (7,332 contracts) · call wall $70,000 (10,992 contracts)
· ETH 01.09 — max pain $2,460 (Deribit $2,480 · Bybit $2,450) · put wall $2,200 (1,362 contracts) · call wall $2,680 (1,265 contracts)
· ETH 25.09 — max pain $2,100 · put wall $2,100 (38,110 contracts) · call wall $3,000 (40,716 contracts)
The market makers' break-even corridor: BTC $76,500–$80,500, ETH $2,380–$2,540. Spot sits inside both today.
Put/Call through time. BTC: month 0.52, week 0.59, now 0.56. ETH: 0.52 / 0.56 / 0.54. Both assets were stacking downside protection more actively a week ago than they are now — the weekly value sits above both the monthly and the current one.
Skew by tenor in percentiles (against our own hourly history since February)
· BTC: 2-day 33rd percentile, weekly 18th, monthly 17th
· ETH: 2-day 37th, weekly 24th, monthly 19th
The longer the term, the cheaper the insurance relative to its own norm — the curve isn't just low, it's tilted.
Gamma levels. The regime is positive on both assets: BTC flip $66,325, ETH flip $2,314 — spot is well above both, so dealers work to damp moves. Aggregate gamma per 1% of movement: BTC $186.3M, ETH $12.7M. The hollows with no hedge: BTC $72,000–$73,000, ETH $2,300–$2,350 — that's where a break lower would accelerate rather than slow.
Fuel beneath the market and above it (Hyperliquid liquidation heat map, snapshot 06:46 UTC)
· BTC: $18.4M of longs in the $74,179–$76,521 band, $24.7M of shorts in the $79,645–$81,987 band — a third more fuel above the market than below.
· ETH: $103.3M of longs in the $2,321–$2,394 band against $10.3M of shorts in $2,492–$2,565 — a tenfold asymmetry, and it points down. That's the sharpest number of the day.
This is a relief map of risk, not a forecast: liquidations lag price, they don't lead it.
🆓TAIL
signal trades win last total since Dust Strategy V2 37 5% −$1,125 +$92,969 21.03 Dust Strategy V1 31 10% −$1,125 +$37,031 20.03 Volatility Convergence V3 21 48% −$535 +$15,116 26.05 Skew 2.0 V2 35 37% −$259 +$12,470 26.05 Fear Flash V2 21 33% −$255 +$3,440 16.05
What lost and why. Deepest in the red are Wheel Trail V8 (−$7,088), Against the Current · top V1 (−$6,189) and Wheel Trail V6 (−$6,081). They share one trait: these are signals that chase continuation of a move, and this market hasn't offered continuations for a month — in a damping regime, where dealers hold price inside a corridor, that logic systematically pays for entry and never gets the move. The day's most profitable signal, Dust Strategy V2, wins only 5 trades in a hundred — and still leads the table in money. Win rate isn't money.
Yesterday the system judged the market "no clear tilt". Over the day BTC moved −0.1% — the market did stand still, the conclusion held. A week ago the conclusion was the same, and BTC moved +1.2% over that day — also within "stood still".
The scenarios opened on 30.08 aren't closed yet: all three run to 01.09 09:23 UTC. The three from 29.08 close today at 11:48 UTC — their verdicts appear in tomorrow's review.
Score by forecast type (the journal's whole history, computed by code)
· "The corridor holds" — 3 of 10 confirmed, 2 more partial, 3 cancelled at the boundary
· "Burn-up through the short fuel" — 4 of 9, 1 cancelled at the boundary
· "Squeeze up into the short fuel" — 4 of 10, 4 cancelled at the boundary
· "Slide under the gamma flip" — 4 of 10, 4 cancelled at the boundary
The weakest type is "The corridor holds": 3 confirmations of 10 issued — worse than a coin toss. We don't remove it, because in half the cases it gets cancelled at the boundary before its term rather than being wrong — but today's 45% has to be weighed with exactly that score in hand.
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.
Radar is assembled automatically from live Deribit / Hyperliquid / OKX data · time-stamped snapshot. A journal of the system's decisions, not investment advice. © 2026 INDICIA DESK.