Case No. 20261025 · 25.10.2026
The biggest dip buyer gave up an hour before the day's low and had turned short by eveningwhile on Deribit December puts kept being bought: insurance against a deep fall is being taken although price barely moved over the day.
Case No. 20261025 · 25.10.2026 06:03 UTC · BTC $80,427 / ETH $2,345 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
Saturday's daily expiry 24.10 settled at 08:00 UTC: bitcoin at $80,705, inside the market-maker corridor $80,500–84,500 fixed a day before expiry, near its lower edge; max pain $82,500 didn't match. Ether at $2,375, also inside its corridor; max pain didn't match. The registry took in this expiry — it now holds 462. No new closed cases, still 888; but in one of those that closed on Friday the sold leg settled yesterday below its strike, and the plus the code recorded for it has become a minus at settlement prices — details below (💠).
Of the positions yesterday's radar said to watch: the bigger of the two longs bought on the dip sold everything himself, at a loss, an hour before the day's low — with over 3% still left to his line; the second is holding. Price passed three near long lines during the day: two accounts managed to cut and re-buy lower on their own, the third had part of its position force-closed by the exchange — as did two more small longs on the way to the low. The account that doubled its bitcoin short the day before yesterday barely changed over the day.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is down 0.5% and ether 1.5%. Over the day bitcoin moved within 2.3%; the low on the Hyperliquid perp was $79,184 yesterday at 15:25 UTC; ether undercut the low of the day before by 2.9%.
• The bigger dip buyer gave up: he sold the whole position at a loss an hour before the low, and in the evening opened a short. In his place under the market a new 40× long came in and another one added, so the long fuel within 5% of the price is almost as much as yesterday — $82.3M against $83.9M.
• Above the price, for the first time in several days, there is short fuel: within 2% — $20.6M of short lines, almost all of it one new 40× short; yesterday there was nothing in that band. Long lines within the same 2% under the price — $31.5M.
• On Deribit insurance against a deep fall keeps being bought: yesterday afternoon another 11 blocks of December puts went through — after four overnight the night before. The nearest protection got dearer: BTC two-day vol sits in the 31st percentile since February against the 6th yesterday.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳: the whales in bitcoin barely moved over the day — the registry's short is 5.9 times the long against 5.8 yesterday — while the crowd is still long, and the gap between them widened by 1.2 points.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, −$1,158 on the day, +$6,370 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$74,969 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,098. Table at the bottom.
🔒WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas · CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses · ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer — in the full radar
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short in bitcoin and didn't change it over the day: the registry's short is 5.9 times the long against 5.8 yesterday, while price is down 0.5% from yesterday's snapshot. The witnesses: the crowd stands against the whales; options side with the whales, but weakly; futures and stress are silent, the funds have no data.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a forecast of a fall: the whales didn't add to their bitcoin short over the day, and the day's largest block in options is built so that it loses on a crash. The long fuel under the market means a bigger range of a move down for the same push, not a higher probability of that move — and now there is short fuel above the market too, so a push up also has something to pick up.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• who holds the line nearest to the market above the price, and who came in under the market in place of the one who gave up: where their lines lie;
• the structure of the day: the premium, the expiry and the point below which it starts losing.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel (the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
−$1,158 on the day · +$6,370 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals ($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 53 4% −$1,125 +$74,969 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 43 7% −$1,125 +$23,559 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 41 34% −$454 +$9,803 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 51 31% −$789 +$4,801 26.05
Fear Flash V3 12 25% −$240 +$1,526 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,098 · Wheel Trail V6 −$8,829 · Wheel Trail V7 −$7,744 — three versions of one signal that hunts a reversal and pays for every attempt while the trend runs; over the day all three won part of the loss back. In the top five one trade closed over the day — Fear Flash V3, −$240; the Pendulum lost $1,158 on the day. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 53 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 462 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 377 times — 82%; yesterday's daily expiry also settled inside the corridor. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 171 of those same 462 expiries, 37%; yesterday's daily expiry — no in bitcoin and no in ether. Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 159 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 49 of 115, 43%. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 888 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 881 with a score, −$18.92M in total for the whales. One of them, No. 1210, the code closed at the first expiry, and the second leg settled yesterday at a loss — that isn't in this sum yet. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$6,370 since 11.05 with −$1,158 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 46 out of 100 against 55 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself. BTC two-day vol — 31st percentile of the hourly history since February, five-day — 21st, 33 days out — 36th: insurance is still cheaper than usual on every tenor, but the nearest is no longer almost the cheapest since February, as it was yesterday.
• Which way protection tilts. BTC skew +4.8: puts dearer than calls, a little more so than yesterday's +4.6. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.