Yesterday's jump in the whales' long share lasted one daythe same account closed most of its longs at the day's low, next to its own liquidation line; the share fell from 27.5% to 24.7%, and without it the share sits near 15%, as yesterday.
Case No. 20261017 · 17.10.2026 05:15 UTC · BTC$81,414 / ETH$2,422 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
Friday's expiry settled at 08:00 UTC: BTC$82,111, ETH$2,451. The max pain fixed a day before expiry was $83,000 and $2,500 — neither matched: max pain sat 1.1% and 2.0% above the settlement. The market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry — $80,500–87,000 and $2,360–2,700 — held both settlements. The levels here are the ledger's, fixed a day before expiry; yesterday's radar quoted the morning book, so its numbers differ.
The registry resolved four cases — two closed in the black for the whales, two without a score — and took in one new one; the closed tally stands at 884.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin and ether are both down 0.7%, to $81,414 and $2,422. Over the day bitcoin on the Hyperliquid perp went from about $82,900 after the Friday expiry to about $80,770 at 17:15 UTC — the day's low — and climbed back by morning.
• Bitcoin: the whales' long share across the registry is 24.7% against 27.5% yesterday — the 35th percentile since 10 July, against the 56th. The mover is the same account that made the whole jump yesterday: at 17:06–17:29 UTC, at the day's low and next to its own liquidation line, it closed most of its longs in both coins at a loss, and minutes later bought part of them back at a higher price. Without it the share is about 15% — as yesterday.
• The rest of the whales we also saw yesterday shifted toward long by about $13M over the day — mostly by closing shorts. Among them the short seller from our investigation: it trimmed its short with a small gain.
• Ether: on the constant set of addresses — about $5–14M toward long; across all addresses — about $29–38M toward short: an address that wasn't in our registry yesterday opened a large short in those same minutes at the low.
• The funds: no fresh figures since 09.10 — the data source is down.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳: the whales stand short — in bitcoin three times the long, against 2.6 times yesterday; both daily swings in the long share came from one account.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, +$639 on the day, +$8,035 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$77,219 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,812. Table at the bottom.
🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas
Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. We measure the day's change in coins between the 04:16 UTC snapshots — on the constant set and on all addresses of both snapshots (how we track whale positions). In BTC on the constant set — 136 addresses — the longs shrank by 422BTC and the shorts by 111BTC: the short tilt grew by about $25M; between the 04:46 snapshots — by $27M. Across all addresses — the same, about $26M. Nearly all of the long cutting is one account; without it the rest of the addresses moved about $13M toward long, mostly by closing shorts. In ETH on the constant set the longs shrank by 12,348 ETH and the shorts by 17,915 ETH: about $13.5M toward long, $4.8M at 04:46. Across all addresses — $29–38M toward short: the difference is mostly a large new short from an address that wasn't in the registry yesterday. Across the registry — among positions with a liquidation price — the totals at the 04:16 UTC snapshot: BTC long $239.1M against a short of $727.9M, ETH$309.9M against $689.7M. The BTC short is 3.0 times the long, against 2.6 times yesterday. The whales' long share in ETH is 31.0% against 33.7% yesterday. Overleveraged whales number 69 against 64 yesterday, $974M of positions together against $1.08B; the longs among them are 58% against 64%. By our fragility index one is near a margin call, against none yesterday.
Arena two — Deribit options. Over two days 72 structures were recognised in bitcoin against 65 yesterday, and 30 in ether against 21. Today's Saturday expiry is small; the next heavy one is Friday 23.10. The largest fresh ones in bitcoin: two positions that pay if price doesn't fall below certain levels under the market, and one that gains on a moderate fall but turns loss-making in a crash. In ether — a position on a rise up to a certain level and two on a large move either way. Quiet accumulation outside the blocks over the week (what a block is): in bitcoin calls above the market top the list, with puts near the market below them; in ether calls above the market top the list again, with puts under the market below them.
Arena three — money at the exchange border. The snapshot is fresh — up to this morning. Over seven days $73.1M was brought into the exchange and $51.8M taken out: $21.3M more arrived than left, against $20.0M yesterday. The net inflow came from USDC cash — $22.7M in against $10.4M out — and from ZEC, in roughly equal shares of about $12–13M each. Bitcoin: $34.3M out against $26.9M in; ether: $5.2M in, $2.0M out.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses
What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position. There are no fresh figures: the SoSoValue data source hasn't answered since 09.10. The latest are for Thursday 08.10. This camp is silent: no data.
What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book. BTCskew is +2.4 against +1.6 yesterday — puts dearer than calls, and the tilt steepened again (what skew is). In ETH+2.0 against +1.4. BTC two-day vol sits in the 10th percentile since February against the 7th yesterday; DVOL37.5 — as yesterday (what implied vol is). Our fear-and-greed index stands at 67 out of 100 against 54 yesterday — it has moved into the greed zone. This camp is silent: insurance is still cheap, but protection against a fall got dearer over the day.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position. BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.008% in eight-hour terms against +0.010% yesterday; on Binance +0.010% against +0.006% (what funding is). In ETH — near zero and +0.002% against +0.010% and +0.008% yesterday. This camp is silent: funding sits near zero; in ether the longs have stopped paying.
What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales. On Bybit perps 63.2% of BTC accounts stand long against 61.7% yesterday, and in ETH71.9% against 72.3%. This contradicts the whales: the crowd added bitcoin longs again, while the whales' long share fell.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market. On OKX swaps only $169k was liquidated over the day, 92% of it longs, against $1.2M, mostly shorts, yesterday; that is 3% of the week's liquidations. Among the top Hyperliquid whales there were no forced closures over the day. This camp is silent: the day's low passed without a cascade.
Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer
The classic altseason index is 48.6 out of 100 on a list of 249 alts against 45.8 on a list of 284 yesterday — the lists differ, so the comparison is rough. This is the transition zone: altseason starts at 75, bitcoin season sits below 25.
Our barometer watches money, not prices: open interest, funding and retail come from Bybit perps, the whales from the Hyperliquid registry. Alts' share of open interest is 41.6% — $4.80B of $11.53B, against 42.7% yesterday.
Alt contracts with funding hotter than bitcoin's on Bybit make up 43.4% of open interest against 67.1% yesterday — hot alt funding shrank by a third over the day.
Retail in the top-10 coins stands 73.5% long against 72.6% yesterday.
Whales in alts are structurally short: 26.7% long across $1.22B of positions, the largest of them HYPE. That gap itself is permanent, the signal is in its CHANGE — over the day the whales' long share fell by 2.3 points.
Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short, in bitcoin three times the long; both yesterday's jump in the long share and today's drop came from one account, while the rest only trimmed shorts a little over the day. The witnesses: the funds have no data; the crowd contradicts the whales; options, futures and stress are silent.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a forecast of a fall: over the week more money again came into the exchange border than left, and in bitcoin options calls above the market are quietly being accumulated. One account's loss at the low is that account's story, not the market's direction.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• at what size the day's account re-entered its long, how much it lost on the close and where its liquidation line now sits;
• the bitcoin structure of the day — what size of fall it's built for and where it turns loss-making.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
💎DEEP
🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠
Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 04:16 UTC; the day's change is measured between the 04:16 snapshots, in coins; the moves of individual addresses come from the trade records. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.
The day's account — sold at the low, bought back higher. Yesterday at 17:06–17:29 UTC the address closed 1,188 BTC of long at $80,776–81,221 and 11,698 ETH at $2,392–2,421 — −$2.35M of realised loss together; the trades show no sign of a forced closure. Before the selling its liquidation line stood at $80,650 and $2,406 (16:46 UTC snapshot) and moved lower as the positions closed: in bitcoin the address was selling 0.2–0.7% above it. At 17:37–17:42 UTC it bought back 722BTC at $81,311–81,787, and at 19:27 — 1,322 ETH at $2,419. This morning: BTC LONG 1,356 BTC ($110.5M) at 40× from $81,914, liquidation at $80,276 — 1.4% from the market; ETH LONG 4,894 ETH ($11.9M) at 25× from $2,445, liquidation at $2,378 — 1.8%. Account value $3.5M against $5.5M yesterday. The ether short at the low. An address on Hyperliquid since 20.08 that wasn't in the registry yesterday, at 17:15–17:34 UTC — the same minutes in which the day's account was closing — opened a SHORT of 12,000 ETH at 25× at $2,400–2,410. This morning: entry $2,405, liquidation at $2,480 — 2.4% from the market. The 40× short seller from our investigation — trimmed the short. Yesterday at 15:05 UTC the address bought back 100BTC of 300 at $81,700 — +$31k. This morning SHORT 200BTC from $82,013, liquidation at $91,831 (+12.8%). The short on the edge — nearly out. The 40× short closed 188BTC of 293 over the day — +$115k; in ether it opened and almost fully closed a short, −$19k. This morning SHORT 105BTC from $81,992, liquidation at $86,895. The 25× ether long — trimmed. The address that had part of its long closed by force on the night of 15 October sold 4,938 ETH over the day (+$43k) and bought 2,163 back: this morning 3,325 ETH from $2,421, liquidation at $2,380 — 1.7% from the market. New leveraged positions. A 40× short — 140BTC from $81,460, not in the registry yesterday. An address with a self-assigned nickname holds a SHORT of 400BTC at 25× from $81,245 against 352 yesterday — a week ago this short didn't exist — and a LONG of 10,000 ETH from $2,654 against 13,438 yesterday, with uPnL −$2.3M in ether. The largest ether long at 13× — ETH LONG $97.7M from $2,646, uPnL −$8.9M, liquidation at $2,291 — 5.4% from the market. The largest short house. Its first address — 2,770 BTC unchanged and 107,797 ETH against 108,291 yesterday: −494ETH. The second — 2,485 BTC unchanged and 87,289 ETH against 87,714: −426ETH. The market's biggest loss.BTC SHORT $225.8M, leverage 5×, entry $76,205, uPnL −$14.7M against −$16.0M yesterday, liquidation at $145,767 (+79%). In ETH the same address — SHORT $261.5M from $2,323, uPnL −$11.1M. The second address of the same handwriting.BTC SHORT $202.6M from $77,751, uPnL −$9.3M; ETH SHORT $211.8M from $2,375, uPnL −$4.4M. Together the two addresses carry $39.6M of unrealised loss against $44.4M yesterday; their $428M make up 59% of the registry's bitcoin short side against 58% yesterday. The market's biggest gain — ETH LONG $73.5M at 20× from $2,134, uPnL +$8.8M.
Cases in the registry — one new, four resolved; notable ones of the 164 open. The new case — the structure of the day. No. 1188 · BTC: 100 puts at $75,000 for 30.10 sold, 50 puts at $78,000 for 06.11 bought; premium ≈0.32BTC paid. Twice as many sold as bought: it gains on a moderate fall, most of all near $75,000, while a deeper crash turns it loss-making.
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-10-30. Кит заплатив $26k премії. Беззбитковість: $72 521 і $77 479.
Resolved on the Friday expiry. No. 1180 · a BTC bear put spread (150 puts at $83,000 bought, 150 puts at $80,000 sold): the $82,111 settlement sat between the strikes, +$37.6k for the whale. No. 1186 · a BTC condor (puts at $81,500 and calls at $82,000 sold, protection at $79,000 and $84,000): +$42.8k. Two more old cases were closed without a directional score; one of them carries a tally of −$7.7k for the whale and enters the registry's total. Case No. 1153 · BTC, expiry 30.10.2026: 25 puts at $86,000 and 25 calls at $89,000 bought, 100 puts at $71,000 and 50 calls at $104,000 sold; premium ≈1.1BTC paid. It earns only in two bands — about $67,300–82,130 below and about $92,900–115,100 above; spot at $81,414 sits in the upper part of the lower band.
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-10-30. Кит заплатив $97k премії. Беззбитковість: $67 289 і $82 133 і $92 867 і $115 133.
Case No. 1143 · BTC, expiry 25.12.2026: 100 puts at $65,000 bought, 50 puts at $80,000 sold, 50 calls at $85,000 sold, 100 calls at $105,000 bought; premium ≈3.7BTC received. Spot at $81,414 is $1,414 above the sold $80,000 put.
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-12-25. Кит отримав $307k премії. Беззбитковість: $56 149 і $73 851 і $91 149 і $118 851.
Case No. 1081 · a BTC risk reversal: a synthetic short from $69,000 for 30.10.2026, premium ≈9.61BTC received, day thirty-two. From the $75,860 entry spot has moved 7.3% against this position — yesterday it was 8.1%.
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-10-30. Кит отримав $729k премії. Беззбитковість: $76 290.
ΔOI over the week:BTC: +3,021 calls at $86,000, mostly on 25.12; +2,939 puts at $80,000; +2,773 puts at $81,000. ETH: +37,398 calls at $2,600, mostly on 30.10; +17,040 puts at $2,400; +13,989 puts at $2,300.
🔬Who exactly
Both of the biggest shorts are Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): over the day the house cut about 920ETH of short, with no change in bitcoin; the unrealised loss across BTC and ETH is $39.6M.
The 30× bitcoin short is an address with the Arkham label Fasanara Capital: 319BTC against 407 yesterday; in ether — 16,778 ETH against 19,186.
Machi Big Brother — the same 25× address that was partly liquidated on the night of 15 October: over the day it cut its long from 6,100 to 3,325 ETH.
The address with the SHORT of 400BTC and the LONG of 10,000 ETH carries the nickname Gorge_Rose_Jacaranda — self-assigned, not an identification.
The day's account and the ether short opened at the low carry no public labels; the 40× short seller — the subject of our investigation — has none either.
Money by address. Over seven days, among the largest bitcoin deposits — several from Binance, $3.0–5.0M each; among the largest withdrawals — to addresses labelled Wintermute, $2.9–3.3M each.
🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬
Perps on a constant set of addresses. Over 7 days on 123 addresses: BTC — $97M into the short, ETH — $77M into the long; yesterday on 124 addresses — $43M into the short and $34M into the long. The weekly window has shifted by a day, so we don't treat the difference from yesterday as the day's move — the daily shift is counted separately, above. The day's account isn't in the weekly set: a week ago it wasn't in the registry.
Gamma flip.BTC across the whole book $80,441 against $81,007 yesterday — spot 1.2% above it (what the flip is). On the near expiries up to 30 days the flip sits above the market, $81,473–82,148: there dealers are in negative gamma — they amplify a move rather than damp it. ETH across the whole book $2,405 against $2,344 — spot 0.7% above; on the near expiries — $2,442–2,447, also above the market.
The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is +2.2 (IV37.5 against the actual weekly HV35.4) — as yesterday.
🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠
BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book unless stated otherwise. Today's Saturday expiry 17.10: max pain$82,000 across the combined book and on Deribit, $81,750 on Bybit (what max pain is); put $80,000 (452 contracts), call $84,500 (190) (what the walls are). 30.10: max pain$79,000 across the combined book, $82,000 on Bybit; put wall $70,000 (4,142), call wall $95,000 (25,570).
ETH levels. 17.10: max pain$2,430 across the combined book, $2,420 on Deribit; put $2,400 (4,500), call $2,520 (2,785). 30.10: max pain$2,500, put wall $2,300 (22,826), call wall $2,600 (38,043).
Fuel. At the 04:16 UTC snapshot, under BTC within 5% of the market ($77,434–81,510) there are $151.3M of long positions against $157.2M yesterday: $110.5M of that is the day's account with its liquidation line 1.4% from the market; without it about $41M sits under the market. Above the market within 5% — $31.1M of shorts against $58.5M. In ETH — $20.5M of longs below the market against $52.1M; above the market $35.2M of shorts, where yesterday there were none: $29M of that is the short opened at the low. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move (what the fuel map is).
Gamma vacuum. In BTC there are no empty zones above the market; below it $75,000–$76,000 is empty; in ETH — $2,300–$2,350 under the market.
Stress test ±2%. In bitcoin a 2% fall ($79,783) takes price under the whole-book gamma flip — into the zone where dealers amplify a move — and past the day's account's liquidation line; above — the $90,000 call wall across the whole book. In ether −2% ($2,374) also lands under the flip.
OI flow.BTC put/call across all expiries: month 0.55 · week 0.58 · now 0.60. ETH0.50 · 0.58 · 0.51 (what put/call is).
Two options books. On the same expiries up to 30 days BTC put/call is 0.59 on Deribit against 1.25 on Bybit; ETH0.88 and 0.85.
IV by tenor.BTC 2d P26/C24 · 6d P34/C31 · 20d P39/C35, percentiles since February — 10th, 13th and 34th. ETH 2d P34/C29 · 6d P45/C41 · 20d P51/C48, percentiles 7th, 10th and 25th. The tenors have changed again against yesterday's 7- and 21-day, so their percentiles aren't compared day to day. ETHDVOL51.5 against 30-day realised HV44.8 — a premium of +6.7 (what the premium is).
💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠
The code's verdicts. From 14.10: the corridor isn't confirmed — price stayed within its bounds 57% of the time; the slide into the long fuel is confirmed — a low of $80,456 on the spot series the code uses, against the $81,700 level. From 15.10: the corridor is confirmed — within bounds 100% of the time, ending at $81,417; the slide isn't confirmed — a low of $80,456 against the $79,600 level; the squeeze up isn't confirmed — a high of $82,425 on the code's series against the $82,850 level. The code counts hourly spot closes; within that window the intra-hour candles of the Hyperliquid perp reached about $82,900 up (16.10) and about $79,700 down (15.10). The scenarios from 16.10 close tomorrow at 04:44 UTC.
The all-time tally (N counts only those that reached a verdict): squeeze up through the short fuel — 17 of 38, 18 more cancelled at their level; corridor — 23 of 47 plus 13 partial, 5 more cancelled; slide into the long fuel — 16 of 30, 15 more cancelled. The directional types are still no better than a coin toss.
The corridor holds — 50%. ⏱ 2 days, to 19.10. BTC stays within the near 2% of the market: $79,800–$83,050. Cancellation level: a touch of $77,350 — the lower edge of the five-percent zone.
Slide into the long fuel — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 19.10. Trigger: a touch of $79,800 — a break below the near 2%, past the day's account's liquidation line, into the zone where $151.3M of long liquidation lines sit under the market. Cancellation level: a touch of $83,050.
Squeeze up through the short fuel — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 19.10. Trigger: a touch of $83,050 — a break above the near 2%, where $31.1M of short liquidation lines sit above the market. Cancellation level: a touch of $79,800.
This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.
🔭WHAT TO WATCH
• The day's account: a $110.5M long with its liquidation line at $80,276 — 1.4% from the market (💠).
• The ether short opened at the low — its line at $2,480, 2.4% above the market (💠).
• Bitcoin's gamma flip across the whole book — $80,441, 1.2% under the market; on the near expiries — above the market (🔬).
🆓TAIL
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel(the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
+$639 on the day · +$8,035 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 514%−$1,125+$77,219 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 417%−$1,125+$25,809 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 3837%−$543+$11,376 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 5032%−$874+$5,590 26.05
Fear Flash V3 1127%−$139+$1,766 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,812 · Wheel Trail V6 −$9,823 · Wheel Trail V7 −$8,763 — three versions of one signal that hunts a reversal and pays for every attempt while the trend runs. Four trades closed in the top five over the day, all in the red: two Dust V2 at −$1,125 each, Dust V1 −$1,125 and Skew 2.0 V2 −$874. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 51 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 446 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 362 times — 81%. On Friday it held both settlements — after Thursday, when it held neither. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 163 of those same 446 expiries, 37%; on Friday none, for the second day running. Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 157 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 46 of 111, 41%. On Friday ether's put wall was broken — the settlement passed under it. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 884 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 877 with a score, −$18.93M in total for the whales. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$8,035 since 11.05 with +$639 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 67 out of 100 against 54 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself.BTC two-day vol — 10th percentile of the hourly history since February, six-day — 13th, 20 days out — 34th: insurance is cheaper than usual on every tenor, and the nearest is among the cheapest since February.
• Which way protection tilts.BTCskew+2.4: puts dearer than calls, and more so than yesterday's +1.6. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.