Report archive · 12.10.2026

INDICIA Radar

Case No. 20261012 · 12.10.2026

Bitcoin rose over the weekendand the whales answered by adding to the bitcoin short: fresh leveraged shorts now stand just above the price, pressed against their own liquidation lines.

Case No. 20261012 · 12.10.2026 07:16 UTC · BTC $84,110 / ETH $2,572 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic

📅THE WEEKEND

The previous radar came out on Saturday, so this one covers two expiries and every comparison is with Saturday.

Saturday's expiry settled at BTC $82,674, ETH $2,492; Sunday's at BTC $82,952, ETH $2,499. The max pain fixed a day before expiry matched in bitcoin both times — the settlement landed 0.4% and 0.5% from it; in ether there was no exact match: 1.1% below on Saturday, 1.6% below on Sunday — the ledger counted Sunday as a partial match because the gap narrowed. The market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held all four settlements, and the call walls that price reached held it back. Today's Monday expiry settles after this snapshot.

The case registry took in two new cases; the closed tally stands at 877, 872 of them with a score.

⚡THE GIST

• Since Saturday's morning snapshot bitcoin is up 1.7%, to $84,110, and ether 3.0%, to $2,572. OKX swaps liquidated $534k over the day, 81% of it shorts.

• Bitcoin: the whales added to the short into the rise. The short tilt grew by about $28M over the day and by about $89M since Saturday's snapshot. Their long share across the registry is 16.7% — the 3rd percentile since 10 July, against the 5th on Saturday.

• Fresh leveraged shorts stand just above the price, pressed against their own liquidation lines: within five percent above bitcoin there are now three times as many short liquidation lines as on Saturday. Among the overleveraged whales the shorts outnumber the longs for the first time in days.

• The short seller from our investigation, who got out at a profit in the night of 9 October, has been short bitcoin again since Saturday.

• Ether went the other way: over the day the whales shifted about $63M toward long. And the largest short house trimmed its short in both coins a little — the first time in days.

• The funds: no fresh figures since Friday — the data source is down.

• Verdict — continuation ⟳: the whales hold the bitcoin short and are adding to it; ether went the opposite way over the day.

• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, −$208 on the day, +$8,278 in total since 11.05.

• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$79,469 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,812. Table at the bottom.

🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas

Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. We measure the day's change in coins between the 06:46 UTC snapshots — on the constant set and on all addresses of both snapshots (how we track whale positions).
In BTC across all addresses the longs added 118 BTC and the shorts 454 BTC: the short tilt grew by about $28M; between the 06:16 snapshots by $25M. On the constant set — 144 addresses — only $16M: part of the short was opened by addresses that weren't in the set yesterday. Since Saturday's 04:46 snapshot — about $89M into the short.
In ETH across all addresses the longs added 21,491 ETH and the shorts shrank by 2,875 ETH: the short tilt narrowed by about $63M; between the 06:16 snapshots by $64M.
Across the registry — among positions with a liquidation price — the totals at the 07:16 UTC snapshot: BTC long $139.4M against a short of $696.4M, ETH $397.6M against $769.0M. The whales' long share in BTC is 16.7% against 19.0% on Saturday: the short is 5.0 times the long.
Overleveraged whales number 69 against 66 on Saturday, $783M of positions together against $763M; 54% of them are shorts, where on Saturday 61% were longs. One of them, by our fragility index, is near a margin call.

Arena two — Deribit options. Few blocks over the weekend: over two days 14 structures were recognised in bitcoin and 12 in ether. The next heavy expiry is Friday 16.10.
The largest fresh one in bitcoin is a position on a moderate rise with calls sold higher up, which loses on a sharp jump; in ether — a position on a strong move up, a condor on a wide corridor, and calls sold slightly above the market.
Quiet accumulation outside the blocks over the week (what a block is): in bitcoin — puts below the market and calls slightly above it; in ether — in-the-money calls and calls above the market, puts under it.

Arena three — money at the exchange border. The snapshot is fresh — up to this morning.
Over seven days $66.1M was brought into the exchange and $94.3M taken out: $28.2M more left than arrived, against $12.4M on Saturday. USDC cash is now almost level: $27.9M out against $28.7M in. The main outflow is bitcoin: $34.8M out against $9.1M in; ether $14.6M out against $10.6M in.

This is positioning, not a direction forecast.

🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses

What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position.
There are no fresh figures: the SoSoValue data source hasn't answered since Friday, so Friday's session is missing. The latest, for Thursday 08.10: BTC funds −$244.1M (incomplete), ETH funds −$72.5M.
This camp is silent: no data.

What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book.
The put–call skew wasn't computed by the generator today (what skew is).
BTC two-day vol sits in the 30th percentile since February against the 6th on Saturday; DVOL 38.0 against 36.7 (what implied vol is).
Our fear-and-greed index stands at 63 out of 100 against 69 on Saturday.
This camp is silent: insurance has gone from very cheap to slightly below normal.

What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position.
BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.008% in eight-hour terms — slightly below the venue's +0.010% base; on Binance 0.000% against +0.002% (what funding is). In ETH +0.002% and −0.002% against +0.010% and +0.002% on Saturday.
This camp is silent: funding near zero and below the base — the longs are paying less than usual.

What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales.
On Bybit perps 61.7% of BTC accounts stand long against 62.5% on Saturday, and in ETH 71.1% against 71.3%.
This camp is silent: the crowd hasn't moved — still standing against the whales.

Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market.
On OKX swaps $534k was liquidated over the day, 81% of it shorts, against $44k on Saturday.
This contradicts the whales in bitcoin: the rise forced out shorts — the side the whales stand on.

Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.

🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer

The classic altseason index is 58.3 out of 100 on a list of 192 alts against 52.1 on a list of 240 on Saturday; on today's list Saturday's value is 57.6. This is the transition zone: altseason starts at 75, bitcoin season sits below 25.

Our barometer watches money, not prices: open interest, funding and retail come from Bybit perps, the whales from the Hyperliquid registry. Alts' share of open interest is 44.3% — $5.25B of $11.86B, against 43.8% on Saturday.

Alt contracts with funding hotter than bitcoin's make up 69% of open interest against 88% on Saturday.

Retail in the top-10 coins stands 72.3% long against 73.0% on Saturday.

Whales in alts are structurally short: 27.3% long across $1.51B of positions, the largest of them HYPE. That gap itself is permanent, the signal is in its CHANGE — since Saturday the whales' long share fell by about a point.

Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason

⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY

continuation ⟳ — the whales hold the bitcoin short and are adding to it into the rise: about $28M over the day and $89M since Saturday, mostly through fresh leveraged shorts. Ether went the opposite way over the day — toward long. The witnesses: stress contradicts the whales, because it was shorts that were forced out; the funds have no data; options, futures and the crowd are silent.

What this does NOT mean. It isn't a forecast of a fall: the fresh shorts stand pressed against their lines, and above bitcoin there are now three times as many short liquidation lines as on Saturday — that is the range of a possible move up, not its probability. And the largest short house didn't add to its short over the day; it trimmed it a little.

🔒In today's full RADAR:

• who opened the fresh leveraged shorts and how far above the price, in percent, their liquidation lines sit;

• at what size and leverage the short seller from our investigation came back.

ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent

💎DEEP

🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠

Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 07:16 UTC; the day's change is measured between the 06:46 snapshots, in coins; the moves of individual addresses come from the registry snapshots (every 30 minutes) and the trade records. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.

Shorts pressed against the line. An address that held only 11 BTC of short on Saturday now holds BTC SHORT $27.3M at 40× from $83,846 — liquidation at $84,961, only 1% above the market. Another flipped over the weekend from a 257 BTC long to a 303 BTC short: BTC SHORT $25.5M at 20× from $83,140, liquidation at $86,779 (+3%). One more address at 40× raised its short from 12 to 200 BTC — a different wallet from the one in our investigation over the day. Together these three carry more than $69M of short at 20–40× leverage.
The 40× short seller is back for a second time. By the trade records, on Saturday between 07:29 and 18:03 UTC the address opened a 150 BTC short at $82,600–83,041, and on Sunday at 17:44 added 50 BTC at about $83,960. This morning — 200 BTC at 40×, entry $83,049, uPnL −$0.22M, liquidation at $92,257 (+9.7%). Account $1.64M.
The largest short house trimmed a little. Over the day its first address went from 2,852 to 2,785 BTC and from 111,802 to 111,265 ETH, the second from 2,553 to 2,485 BTC and from 90,562 to 89,426 ETH.
The market's biggest loss. ETH SHORT $285.4M, leverage 5×, entry $2,323, uPnL −$27.0M, liquidation at $3,744 (+46%).
The same address in BTC. SHORT $233.9M, entry $76,152, uPnL −$21.8M, liquidation at $131,446 (+57%).
The second address of the same handwriting. BTC SHORT $208.7M from $77,751 (uPnL −$15.5M, liquidation at $144,275, +72%), ETH SHORT $229.4M from $2,375 (uPnL −$17.0M, liquidation at $4,227, +65%). Together the two addresses carry $81.2M of unrealised loss against $60.9M on Saturday; their $442.6M make up 64% of the registry's bitcoin short side against 72% on Saturday: the short side grew through others.
Ether: who added long. The 25× long that closed almost all of its ether on Thursday added another 6,000 ETH over the day — to 19,300 ETH. An address with an 8,102 ETH long at 25× appeared. The 13× long holds 39,964 ETH unchanged — ETH LONG $102.5M from $2,647, liquidation at $2,287 (−11%). The 20× ether short, by contrast, grew from 5,945 to 10,478 ETH.
The 30× short cut its ether from 20,607 to 19,324 ETH — ETH SHORT $49.6M, uPnL +$0.92M; its bitcoin — 280 BTC.
The market's biggest gain — ETH LONG $77.7M at 20× from $2,134, uPnL +$13.0M.

Cases in the registry — two new; notable ones of the 162 open.
Two new cases. No. 1179 · a BTC call ratio spread, 300 BTC by the sum of its legs: 100 calls at $89,000 for 30.10 bought, 200 calls at $98,000 for 27.11 sold — a position on a moderate rise that loses on a sharp jump up. No. 1178 · an ETH condor, 500 ETH for 27.11: puts at $2,150 and calls at $2,850 sold, protection at $1,800 and $3,100 bought.
Case No. 1153 · BTC, expiry 30.10.2026: 25 puts at $86,000 and 25 calls at $89,000 bought, 100 puts at $71,000 and 50 calls at $104,000 sold; premium ≈1.1 BTC paid. It earns only in two bands — about $67,300–82,130 below and about $92,900–115,100 above; spot at $84,110 sits inside the zone where the structure is in the red.

Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-10-30. Кит заплатив $97k премії. Беззбитковість: $67 289 і $82 133 і $92 867 і $115 133.

Case No. 1143 · BTC, expiry 25.12.2026: 100 puts at $65,000 bought, 50 puts at $80,000 sold, 50 calls at $85,000 sold, 100 calls at $105,000 bought; premium ≈3.7 BTC received. Spot at $84,110 is $890 under the sold $85,000 call.

Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-12-25. Кит отримав $307k премії. Беззбитковість: $56 149 і $73 851 і $91 149 і $118 851.

Case No. 1081 · BTC risk reversal: a synthetic short from $69,000 for 30.10.2026, premium ≈9.61 BTC received, day twenty-seven. From the $75,860 entry spot has moved 10.9% against this position — on Saturday it was 9.1%.

Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-10-30. Кит отримав $729k премії. Беззбитковість: $76 290.

ΔOI over the week: BTC: +3,656 puts at $78,000, +3,071 puts at $80,000, +2,284 calls at $85,000. ETH: +40,816 calls at $2,300, +24,522 puts at $2,400, +13,617 calls at $2,650.

🔬Who exactly

Both of the biggest shorts are Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): over the day the house cut about 135 BTC and 1,670 ETH of short; the unrealised loss across BTC and ETH is $81.2M.

The 30× short is an address labelled Fasanara Capital: ETH SHORT $49.6M, BTC — 280 BTC.

Machi Big Brother is the 25× ether long that has built up 19,300 ETH again.

The 40× short seller — the subject of our investigation — carries no public label; nor do the fresh shorts pressed against the line.

Money by address. Over seven days $8.9M of the $9.1M of incoming bitcoin arrived from Binance addresses; $31.9M of the $34.8M of outgoing bitcoin and all the outgoing ether, $14.6M, went to addresses labelled Wintermute; $5.5M of USDC each went to OKX and Binance deposit addresses.

🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬

Perps on a constant set of addresses. Over 7 days on 130 addresses: BTC — $75M into the short, ETH — $5M into the long; on Saturday on 126 addresses — $82M into the short and $42M into the long. The caveat is the same: full exits drop out of the set.

Gamma flip. BTC across the whole book $79,659 against $80,238 on Saturday, spot 5.6% above it (what the flip is). ETH — $2,477 against $2,497, spot 3.8% above.

The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is +4.7 (IV 38.2 against the actual weekly HV 33.5) against +1.8 on Saturday.

🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠

BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book unless stated otherwise. Today's Monday expiry — 2,757 contracts: the market-maker break-even corridor is $80,500–$84,500, spot near its upper edge (what the corridor is); max pain $83,000 on Deribit, $83,750 on Bybit, $83,500 across the combined book (what max pain is); put $80,000 (134 contracts), call $84,500 (374) — spot just under it (what the walls are). It settles at 08:00 UTC, after this snapshot.

Further down the calendar. Tuesday 13.10 — 1,055 contracts; Friday 16.10 — 15,300, max pain $83,000; 30.10 — max pain $78,000 and a call wall at $95,000 on 25,033 contracts.

ETH levels. Today's expiry — 41,483 contracts: corridor $2,420–$2,580, spot near its upper edge; max pain $2,520 on Deribit and $2,530 across the combined book; put $2,380 (4,375), call $2,560 (4,530) — spot already above it. Friday 16.10 in ether — 107,876 contracts, a put wall at $2,500 — 35,570.

Fuel. At the 06:46 UTC snapshot, under BTC within 5% of the market ($79,778–83,977) there are $32.1M of long positions against $34.7M on Saturday; above the market within 5% — $87.3M of shorts against $28.4M. In ETH — $50.7M of longs below the market against $32.6M, and $0.3M of shorts above it. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move (what the fuel map is).

Gamma vacuum. In BTC there are no empty zones above the market; below it $77,000–$78,000 is empty; in ETH — $2,450–$2,500 under the market.

Stress test ±2%. In BTC both directions sit in the zone where dealers dampen a move; above — the $90,000 call wall. In ETH spot has already passed the $2,540 call wall, and a 2% fall, to about $2,521, stays above the $2,500 put wall.

OI flow. BTC put/call across all expiries: month 0.54 · week 0.55 · now 0.58. ETH 0.54 · 0.57 · 0.56 (what put/call is).

Two options books. On the same expiries up to 30 days BTC put/call is 0.57 on Deribit against 1.55 on Bybit; ETH 1.07 against 1.05.

IV by tenor. BTC 2d P32/C33 · 4d P36/C35 · 18d P38/C34, percentiles since February — 30th, 29th and 28th. ETH 2d P42/C42 · 4d P47/C44 · 18d P48/C46, percentiles 27th, 22nd and 9th. ETH DVOL 49.7 against 30-day realised HV 39.8 — a premium of +9.9 (what the premium is).

💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠

The code's verdicts. From 08.10: the corridor was confirmed — price inside it 96% of the time; the slide into the long fuel was confirmed — a low of $80,555 against the $81,100 level. From 09.10: the corridor was confirmed, price inside it the whole time; the slide and the squeeze weren't. From 10.10: the same — the corridor confirmed, while the $84,044 high on the spot series didn't reach the $84,400 squeeze trigger.

The all-time tally (N counts only those that reached a verdict): squeeze up through the short fuel — 17 of 37, 15 more cancelled at their level; corridor — 22 of 43 plus 11 partial, 5 more cancelled; slide into the long fuel — 13 of 26, 15 more cancelled. The directional types are still no better than a coin toss.

The corridor holds — 50%. ⏱ 2 days, to 14.10. BTC stays within the near 2% of the market: $82,450–$85,800. Cancellation level: a touch of $79,900 — the lower edge of the five-percent zone.

Slide into the long fuel — 20%. ⏱ 2 days, to 14.10. Trigger: a touch of $82,450 — a break below the near 2%, into the zone where $32.1M of long liquidation lines sit under the market. Cancellation level: a touch of $85,800.

Squeeze up through the short fuel — 30%. ⏱ 2 days, to 14.10. Trigger: a touch of $85,800 — a break above the near 2%, where $87.3M of short liquidation lines sit above the market, some of them 1–3% from the price. Cancellation level: a touch of $82,450.

This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.

🔭WHAT TO WATCH

• The fresh 20–40× shorts with liquidation lines 1–3% above the price (💠).

• The short seller from our investigation: 200 BTC at 40× (💠).

• Friday 16.10 — more than 15 thousand contracts in bitcoin and almost 108 thousand in ether (💠).

🆓TAIL

📊POLYGON

(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)

⚙️Pendulum · Wheel (the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)

−$208 on the day · +$8,278 in total · since 11.05.2026

⭐ Top-5 signals ($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):

signal                    trades   win    last     total  since
Dust Strategy V2              49    4% −$1,125  +$79,469  21.03
Dust Strategy V1              40    8% −$1,125  +$26,934  20.03
Volatility Convergence V3     36   39%   +$452  +$12,423  26.05
Skew 2.0 V2                   47   34%   −$908   +$7,776  26.05
Fear Flash V3                 11   27%   −$139   +$1,766  23.05

Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,812 · Wheel Trail V6 −$9,823 · Wheel Trail V7 −$8,763 — three versions of one signal that hunts a reversal and pays for every attempt while the trend runs. Since Saturday one trade closed in the top five: Skew 2.0 V2, at −$908. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 49 trades. Win rate isn't money.

📅PUBLIC LEDGER

(computed by code at the settlement price)

The market-maker corridor. Across 436 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 355 times — 81%. It held both weekend expiries in both assets. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.

Max pain. An exact match with the settlement in 159 of those same 436 expiries, 36%; over the weekend in bitcoin both times, in ether no exact match, a partial one on Sunday. Decision: we don't chase max pain — after five days without a match in bitcoin, two matches in a row don't change the share.

The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 157 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 45 of 109, 41%. Over the weekend all three call walls that price touched held. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.

Whale structures. The registry: 877 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 872 with a score, −$18.99M in total for the whales. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.

Polygon. Pendulum +$8,278 since 11.05 with −$208 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name, on losing days too.

📏Scale calibrator

• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 63 out of 100 against 69 on Saturday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.

• Cheap or expensive for this market itself. BTC two-day vol — 30th percentile of the hourly history since February, four-day — 29th, 18 days out — 28th: insurance has gone from very cheap to slightly below normal.

• Which way protection tilts. The BTC put–call skew wasn't computed today; on Saturday it was +1.9. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/

Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.