A quiet Saturday with no new decisions on either sidethe whales keep the bitcoin short: their long share sits at the 5th percentile since July and barely moved over the day.
Case No. 20261010 · 10.10.2026 05:38 UTC · BTC$82,728 / ETH$2,496 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
Friday's heavy expiry settled at 08:00 UTC: BTC$82,486, ETH$2,500. The max pain fixed a day before expiry was $84,000 and $2,650: bitcoin settled 1.8% below it, ether 5.7% below — no match in either. The market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held in bitcoin but not in ether: price settled 1.56% under it. Ether's put wall held, though — the settlement landed exactly on it. Today's Saturday expiry settles after this snapshot.
The case registry took in no new cases; the closed tally stands at 877, 872 of them with a score.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is up 0.6%, to $82,728, and ether 0.3%, to $2,496. A quiet day: OKX swaps liquidated only $44k, mostly shorts.
• The whales keep the bitcoin short: their long share across the registry is 19.0% against 19.2% yesterday — the 5th percentile of the history since 10 July, where the median is 27%. The largest short house didn't touch its positions over the day.
• The day's shift is small: in bitcoin, across all addresses of both snapshots, about $15M toward long, and the measurement half an hour earlier gives the same; in ether near zero, because both sides shrank by about the same amount.
• The funds: no Friday figures — the data source was down this morning. The latest, for Thursday, show outflows from both: from the ETH funds for an eighth day running.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳: the whales hold the short; a day without new decisions from them or from the crowd.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, −$807 on the day, +$8,218 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$79,469 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,812. Table at the bottom.
🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas
Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. We measure the day's change in coins between the 04:46 UTC snapshots — on the constant set and on all addresses of both snapshots (how we track whale positions). In BTC on the constant set — 140 addresses — the longs shrank by 22BTC and the shorts by 160BTC: the short tilt narrowed by about $11M. Across all addresses, including those that entered and left, by about $15M; between the 04:16 snapshots by about $16M. In ETH both sides shrank by roughly the same amount — about 4–5 thousand ETH each — and the tilt barely moved: on the constant set $3.5M toward long, across all addresses $1.0M toward short. Across the registry — among positions with a liquidation price — the totals at the 05:38 UTC snapshot: BTC long $144.9M against a short of $619.4M, ETH$344.3M against $741.4M. The whales' long share in BTC is 19.0% against 19.2% yesterday: the short is 4.3 times the long. Overleveraged whales number 66 against 68 yesterday, $763M of positions together against $811M, 61% of them longs against 64%.
Arena two — Deribit options. Over two days 61 structures were recognised in bitcoin and 17 in ether. The next heavy expiry is Friday 16.10. Among the bitcoin ones the bearish structures dominate: protection against a fall paid for with a sold ceiling, and a spread on a deep fall; there is also a position on a big move in either direction. In ether — calls sold far above the market, a position on a moderate rise, and volatility sold into the calm. Quiet accumulation outside the blocks over the week (what a block is): in bitcoin — puts below the market; in ether — puts slightly under the market and in-the-money calls. Ether sits right at the level below which dealers, by our model across the whole book, amplify a move rather than dampen it.
Arena three — money at the exchange border. The snapshot is fresh — up to this morning. Over seven days $60.0M was brought into the exchange and $72.4M taken out: $12.4M more left than arrived, against $12.1M yesterday. USDC cash is leaving: $30.7M out against $22.7M in. Bitcoin: $11.1M in, $12.1M out; ether $15.2M in, $12.1M out.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses
What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position. There are no Friday figures: the SoSoValue data source was down this morning. The latest, for Thursday: BTC funds −$244.1M (incomplete, without IBIT), ETH funds −$72.5M — an eighth straight outflow. This camp is silent: no fresh data.
What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book. BTCskew+1.9 against +1.2 yesterday — puts are slightly dearer than calls (what skew is). In ETH+2.3 against +3.1. BTC two-day vol sits in the 6th percentile since February against the 18th yesterday; DVOL36.7 against 36.3 (what implied vol is). Our fear-and-greed index stands at 69 out of 100 against 65 yesterday. This camp is silent: insurance is cheap, the tilt toward puts moderate.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position. BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.010% in eight-hour terms — the venue's base rate, as yesterday; on Binance +0.002% against +0.007% (what funding is). In ETH+0.010% and +0.002% against +0.006% and +0.002% yesterday. This camp is silent: funding sits near the base.
What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales. On Bybit perps 62.5% of BTC accounts stand long against 64% yesterday, and in ETH71.3% against 72%. This camp is silent: the crowd trimmed its longs a little, but still stands against the whales, as it did.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market. On OKX swaps $44k was liquidated over the day, 93% of it shorts, against $4.0M of longs yesterday. This camp is silent: almost no one was forced out.
Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer
The classic altseason index is 52.1 out of 100 on a list of 240 alts against 45.4 on a list of 284 yesterday; on today's list yesterday's value is 46.4. This is the transition zone: altseason starts at 75, bitcoin season sits below 25.
Our barometer watches money, not prices: open interest, funding and retail come from Bybit perps, the whales from the Hyperliquid registry. Alts' share of open interest is 43.8% — $5.12B of $11.70B, against 43.3% yesterday.
Alt contracts with funding hotter than bitcoin's make up 88% of open interest against 33% yesterday — the share is measured relative to bitcoin's own funding, so it jumps along with it.
Retail in the top-10 coins stands 73.0% long against 74.3% yesterday.
Whales in alts are structurally short: 28.6% long across $1.41B of positions, the largest of them HYPE. That gap itself is permanent, the signal is in its CHANGE — over the day the whales' long share barely moved.
Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales hold the short: their long share in bitcoin sits at the 5th percentile since July and barely moved over the day, and the largest short house didn't touch its positions. The day's shift is small. All five witnesses are silent: the funds without data, insurance cheap, funding at the base, the crowd where it was, no stress.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a forecast of a fall: whales on Hyperliquid are structurally short — part of those shorts hedges spot rather than taking a view on a decline — and across the whole archive they have never once been long by majority. The low percentile says how unusual the position is for the whales themselves, not where price goes.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• whose short is holding bitcoin and how much room it has to its liquidation line;
• what happened to the ether longs after Thursday's capitulation.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
💎DEEP
🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠
Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 05:38 UTC; the day's change is measured between the 04:46 snapshots, in coins. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.
The largest short house — unchanged. Both of its addresses left their positions practically untouched over the day: 2,853 and 2,555 BTC of short, 111,802 and 90,656 ETH of short. Together in bitcoin — $446.9M, 72% of the registry's bitcoin short side, as yesterday. The market's biggest loss.ETH SHORT $278.8M, leverage 5×, entry $2,323, uPnL −$19.1M, liquidation at $3,878 (+56%). The same address in BTC. SHORT $235.8M, entry $76,152, uPnL −$18.5M, liquidation at $137,317 (+66%). The second address of the same handwriting.BTC SHORT $211.1M from $77,751 (uPnL −$12.5M, liquidation at $136,176, +65%), ETH SHORT $226.1M from $2,375 (uPnL −$10.8M, liquidation at $3,991, +60%). Together the two addresses carry $60.9M of unrealised loss against $58.1M yesterday. The ether longs after the capitulation. The 13× long that the exchange partially closed on Thursday holds 39,964 ETH unchanged: ETH LONG $99.7M from $2,647, uPnL −$6.1M, liquidation at $2,287 (−8%). The 25× long that closed almost all of its ether on Thursday has added again: 12,000 ETH against 11,000. The 30× short cut its ether from 23,041 to 21,782 ETH — ETH SHORT $54.3M, uPnL +$2.9M; its bitcoin from 294 to 285BTC. Who moved in bitcoin. A new 257BTC long at 16× ($21.2M) appeared, and a new 140BTC short at 40× ($11.6M); one address closed a 150BTC short and dropped out of the set, another a 150BTC long. The 40× short seller from our investigation has opened no positions since getting out at a profit in the night of 9 October: no trades. The market's biggest gain — ETH LONG $49.9M at 4× from $1,936, uPnL +$11.2M.
Cases in the registry — no new ones; notable ones of the 160 open. Fresh blocks on the cases. Over two days a bear put spread for 30.10 ($73,000/$78,000) — 400BTC in three prints; one more bearish structure — $78,000 puts bought, $87,000 calls sold, 600BTC together in two prints. Case No. 1153 · BTC, expiry 30.10.2026: 25 puts at $86,000 and 25 calls at $89,000 bought, 100 puts at $71,000 and 50 calls at $104,000 sold; premium ≈1.1BTC paid. It earns only in two bands — about $67,300–82,130 below and about $92,900–115,100 above; spot at $82,728 sits roughly $600 above the top of the lower band.
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-10-30. Кит заплатив $97k премії. Беззбитковість: $67 289 і $82 133 і $92 867 і $115 133.
Case No. 1143 · BTC, expiry 25.12.2026: 100 puts at $65,000 bought, 50 puts at $80,000 sold, 50 calls at $85,000 sold, 100 calls at $105,000 bought; premium ≈3.7BTC received. Spot at $82,728 is $2,272 under the sold $85,000 call.
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-12-25. Кит отримав $307k премії. Беззбитковість: $56 149 і $73 851 і $91 149 і $118 851.
Case No. 1081 · BTC risk reversal: a synthetic short from $69,000 for 30.10.2026, premium ≈9.61BTC received, day twenty-five. From the $75,860 entry spot has moved 9.1% against this position — yesterday it was 8.4%.
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-10-30. Кит отримав $729k премії. Беззбитковість: $76 290.
ΔOI over the week:BTC: +4,302 puts at $78,000, +4,199 puts at $80,000, +2,483 calls at $83,000. ETH: +45,964 calls at $2,300, +27,875 puts at $2,400, +15,263 puts at $2,500.
🔬Who exactly
Both of the biggest shorts are Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): no change to the positions over the day; the unrealised loss across BTC and ETH is $60.9M.
The 30× short is an address labelled Fasanara Capital: BTC SHORT $23.6M, ETH SHORT $54.3M.
Machi Big Brother is the 25× ether long that closed almost everything on Thursday and holds 12,000 ETH again.
The 40× short seller — the subject of our investigation — carries no public label; nor do the other addresses in this section.
Money by address. Over seven days all $11.1M of incoming bitcoin arrived from Binance addresses; $11.2M of bitcoin and all the outgoing ether, $12.1M, went to addresses labelled Wintermute; of the $15.2M of incoming ether, $11.8M came from Binance; $7.5M of USDC went to OKX deposit addresses.
🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬
Perps on a constant set of addresses. Over 7 days on 126 addresses: BTC — $82M into the short, ETH — $42M into the long; yesterday on 129 addresses — $92M into the short and $34M into the long. The caveat is the same: full exits drop out of the set.
Gamma flip.BTC across the whole book $80,238 against $80,626 yesterday, spot 3.1% above it (what the flip is). ETH — $2,497 against $2,541 yesterday, spot right at the flip.
The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is +1.8 (IV36.6 against the actual weekly HV34.8) against +1.2 yesterday.
🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠
BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book unless stated otherwise. Today's Saturday expiry — 2,511 contracts: the market-maker break-even corridor is $82,000–$84,000, spot in its lower part (what the corridor is); max pain$83,000 on Deribit and across the combined book, $82,750 on Bybit (what max pain is); put $80,500 (133 contracts), call $83,500 (248) (what the walls are). It settles at 08:00 UTC, after this snapshot.
Further down the calendar. Sunday 11.10 — 3,206 contracts; Friday 16.10 — 14,983, max pain$83,000; 30.10 — max pain$79,000 across the combined book and a call wall at $95,000 on 25,030 contracts.
ETH levels. Today's expiry — 32,484 contracts: corridor $2,460–$2,560, spot in its lower half; max pain$2,500 on both exchanges; put $2,300 (4,277), call $2,560 (2,984). For 16.10 in ether a put wall at $2,500 — 35,505 contracts.
Fuel. At the 05:16 UTC snapshot, under BTC within 5% of the market ($78,536–82,669) there are $34.7M of long positions against $34.2M yesterday; above the market within 5% — $28.4M of shorts against $25.6M. In ETH — $32.6M of longs below the market against $27.6M, and no short lines above it against $4.4M yesterday. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move (what the fuel map is).
Gamma vacuum. In BTC there are no empty zones above the market; below it $76,000–$77,000 is empty; in ETH — $2,400–$2,450 under the market.
Stress test ±2%. In BTC both directions sit in the zone where dealers dampen a move; above — the $90,000 call wall. In ETH price is already at the $2,497 gamma flip: below it dealers amplify a move rather than dampen it.
OI flow.BTC put/call across all expiries: month 0.54 · week 0.55 · now 0.58. ETH0.54 · 0.59 · 0.58 (what put/call is).
Two options books. On the same expiries up to 30 days BTC put/call is 0.58 on Deribit against 1.51 on Bybit; ETH1.17 against 1.00.
IV by tenor.BTC 2d P24/C22 · 6d P33/C30 · 20d P35/C33, percentiles since February — 6th, 9th and 7th. ETH 2d P28/C24 · 6d P43/C38 · 20d P46/C44, percentiles 2nd, 5th and 2nd. ETHDVOL49.2 against 30-day realised HV39.6 — a premium of +9.6 (what the premium is).
💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠
The code's verdicts. From 07.10: the slide into the long fuel was confirmed — a low of $80,555 on the spot series the code scores with, against the $82,500 level; the corridor — partial, price inside it 60% of the time. The scenarios from 08.10 close today at 05:42 UTC, after this snapshot; those from 09.10 run to 11.10.
The all-time tally (N counts only those that reached a verdict): squeeze up through the short fuel — 17 of 35, 15 more cancelled at their level; corridor — 19 of 40 plus 11 partial, 5 more cancelled; slide into the long fuel — 12 of 23, 15 more cancelled. The directional types are still no better than a coin toss.
The corridor holds — 50%. ⏱ 2 days, to 12.10. BTC stays within the near 2% of the market: $81,050–$84,400. Cancellation level: a touch of $78,600 — the lower edge of the five-percent zone.
Slide into the long fuel — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 12.10. Trigger: a touch of $81,050 — a break below the near 2%, into the zone where $34.7M of long liquidation lines sit under the market. Cancellation level: a touch of $84,400.
Squeeze up through the short fuel — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 12.10. Trigger: a touch of $84,400 — a break above the near 2%, where $28.4M of short liquidation lines sit above the market. Cancellation level: a touch of $81,050.
This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.
🔭WHAT TO WATCH
• Friday's fund figures, as soon as the source is back (🔬).
• Friday 16.10 — in ether a put wall at $2,500 on more than 35 thousand contracts (💠).
• The whales' long share in bitcoin: whether it moves off the 5th percentile (💠).
🆓TAIL
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel(the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
−$807 on the day · +$8,218 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 494%−$1,125+$79,469 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 408%−$1,125+$26,934 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 3639%+$452+$12,423 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 4635%−$424+$8,684 26.05
Fear Flash V3 1127%−$139+$1,766 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,812 · Wheel Trail V6 −$9,823 · Wheel Trail V7 −$8,763 — three versions of one signal that hunts a reversal and pays for every attempt while the trend runs. Several trades closed in the top five over the day: both Dust Strategy versions in the red, Skew 2.0 V2 at −$424, Volatility Convergence V3 at +$452; Fear Flash V3 replaced version V2 in the five. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 49 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 432 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 351 times — 81%. On Friday it held in bitcoin, not in ether. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. An exact match with the settlement in 157 of those same 432 expiries, 36%; a third day running with none, in bitcoin a fifth. Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 76 of 154 expiries where price reached it — 49%; the put wall in 45 of 109, 41%. On Friday ether's $2,500 put wall held. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 877 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 872 with a score, −$18.99M in total for the whales. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$8,218 since 11.05 with −$807 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name, on losing days too.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 69 out of 100 against 65 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself.BTC two-day vol — 6th percentile of the hourly history since February, six-day — 9th, 20 days out — 7th: insurance is cheaper than almost ever.
• Which way protection tilts.BTCskew+1.9: puts are slightly dearer than calls — yesterday +1.2. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.