Everyone will see the whales buying the dip at $76,561the asymmetry is who was selling at the same time: the spot funds, for a third day, and their biggest day of the month.
Case #20260911 · 11.09.2026 05:16 UTC · BTC$77,126 / ETH$2,460 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
The 10.09 expiry settled at 08:00 UTC. BTC settled at $78,011 — 1.3% under max pain, so it didn't match, but the market-maker break-even corridor held. ETH settled at $2,468 — half a percent from max pain, matched, and the corridor held.
Overnight BTC spot dipped to $76,561 and went straight through yesterday's put wall. Twelve whale cases expiring today were closed by the code before settlement — two large bull put spreads in profit, a strangle sold and a condor at a loss; details in the paid part.
⚡THE GIST
• The whales on Hyperliquid perps bought the dip: the top whales' BTC long grew by more than $100M over the day, and the short-over-long tilt compressed to 2.0 times against 3.3 yesterday; in ETH the short was cut over the day as well.
• For the first time in a week both lenses look the same way in both assets: the perps and the Deribit options book lean toward a rise. That's a rare conviction of positioning, not a price forecast.
• Across the table: the spot ETF funds sold $283M of BTC on Thursday — the biggest daily outflow of the month and the third day of selling running.
• The options book returned a skew figure for the first time in four days: BTC puts are dearer than calls (+1.3) — protection against a fall is being paid for again, even as two-day insurance got cheaper over the day, from the 65th percentile to the 45th.
• Verdict — break: yesterday both assets leaned short; today the whales lean long against the funds, the book and the liquidations — the split is no longer between the whales, it's between the whales and everyone else.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: standing position, $0 on the day, +$9,956 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$90,719 at a 5% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$8,578. Table at the bottom.
🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas
Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. The biggest daily change in positioning in a month — and this time it survived the night. In BTC the top whales were building longs all the way through the dip: the long side grew by more than $100M over the day, the short side barely moved, and the short-over-long tilt compressed to 2.0 times against 3.3 yesterday. Almost the whole weekly shift toward long falls in the last day. In ETH the move has the same sign from the other side: the short was cut by almost $100M over the day, and the weekly window that yesterday showed $85M toward short today shows a reversal (how we track whale positions). Overleveraged whales under watch: 58 against 55 yesterday, 68% of them standing long — there's more fuel under the market. None is right at a margin call by the registry, but one high-leverage long stands one percent from liquidation — in the paid part.
Arena two — Deribit options. Two separate whale positions, and today they part ways by asset. The first — quiet accumulation in small lots outside the blocks. In BTC the book still holds the calls at $81,000 in the two nearest expiries, and over the week it added some puts at $72,000 — the first put footprint in a week. In ETH the lean has flipped: all three of the week's biggest footprints are now puts, under the market. The second — block trades (what a block is). Over two days the snapshot recognised only 3 structures in BTC against 23 yesterday — the block market nearly froze on the dip. In ETH — two probable ones, both bullish: a risk reversal, where the upside is financed by selling fear, and a call spread far above the price. Five new BTC cases of the day — all rare, across two expiries or with unequal legs; legs and premiums are in the paid part.
Arena three — money at the exchange border. Cash comes in, coins go out — and the exchange share of withdrawals doubled over the day. The "bridge" channel is USDC cash: over seven days $59.7M came in and $6.0M went out — ten times more entered than left. The "Unit" channel is the coins themselves: in BTC withdrawals ran three and a half times the deposits ($17.3M against $4.8M); in ETH the inflow was three times the outflow. Where the withdrawals go: $8.2M of the $35.9M withdrawn went to exchange addresses — twice yesterday's share, and most of it cash. Border snapshot 11.09, 05:16 UTC.
This is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses
What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position. On Thursday 10.09 the funds sold for a third day running, and hardest in a month: $283M left the BTC funds against $120M the day before. The sellers were led by Ark's ARKB, with Grayscale's GBTC and Fidelity's FBTC behind it. The week to 10.09 still stays positive — $456M against $122M the week before — but three days of selling have cut it almost in half. ETH is an outflow too: $30M left on the day; the week is $149M against $387M the week before. This contradicts the whales: the whales buy the dip with leverage while the institutions sell the coin itself for a third day — and sell more each day.
What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book. Our fear-and-greed index stands at 82 out of 100 — the same as yesterday; extreme greed hasn't budged despite the dip. Inside the book, though, a shift: BTCskew+1.3 — puts dearer than calls; for the first time in four days the source returned a number, and it sits on the side of fear of a fall (what skew is). At the same time insurance itself got cheaper: BTC two-day vol sits at the 45th percentile of its own hourly history since February against the 65th yesterday. This contradicts the whales: the book pays for protection against a fall on the very day the perps build longs.
What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position. BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.010% in eight-hour terms against +0.008% yesterday — longs pay shorts a little more (what funding is). The BTC futures basis flipped negative: the term price is under spot for the first time in a week. This confirms the whales: longs are paying, just as the whales who built longs are — the leveraged crowd and the whales are on the same side this time.
What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales. On Bybit perps 60% of BTC accounts stand long against 58% yesterday, ETH67%. The gap between the crowd and the whales in BTC compressed to 26.0 points against 28.3 yesterday — the fastest three-day narrowing in a month; the gap now sits at the 37th percentile of its monthly history. It narrowed because the whales moved toward the crowd with longs, not the other way round. This confirms the whales: both sides now lean long — a rare agreement, and that's exactly why it weighs less than it looks: when everyone's on one side, the gap stops being a witness.
Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market. Among the top Hyperliquid whales, no forced closures over the day. On OKX swaps $1.4M was liquidated, all of it longs — 40% of the whole week's volume in a single day, a spike against the even background of the previous days. This contradicts the whales: the dip was knocking out longs, and the whales built longs exactly where others were being carried out of them.
Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.
🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer
The classic altseason index stands at 28.2 out of 100 — bitcoin-season territory; over the day it fell another seven points from 35.0 and sits at its lowest in a month of observation.
Our barometer watches money, not prices, and counts it from the Hyperliquid perp registry. Alts' share of open interest is 41.5% — $4.44B of the whole market's $10.72B, less than yesterday.
Hot funding sits in 52% of contracts against 40% yesterday — the heat came back on the dip.
Retail in the top-10 coins stands 70.2% long; the hottest are DOGE and XRP, both near 78%.
Whales in alts are structurally short: 35.1% long across $1.14B of positions against $1.35B yesterday — alt positions slimmed by a sixth over the day, the biggest of them still HYPE. That gap is permanent; the signal is in its CHANGE — and over the day it barely moved.
Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
break ⚡ — the construct flipped over the day for the second time in two days: yesterday both assets leaned short; today the whales bought the dip and stand long in BTC, and in ETH they cut the short; both lenses agree for the first time in a week. But across from them stand all the witnesses you can trust without a vocabulary: the funds sold the most in a month, the book pays for puts, the dip was carrying out longs. The split is no longer between the whales — it's between the whales and the rest of the market.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a claim that the whales are right and BTC bounces. Agreement between two sources of measurement is weight of evidence about positioning, not about direction; and the gap between the crowd and the whales is barely a witness today, because both stand on the same side.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
— a whale that stood short two days ago now holds a high-leverage long one percent from liquidation — with size, entry price and what it loses if the dip continues;
— twelve whale cases expiring today — who gained on the dip, who lost, and by how much, by the code's estimate before settlement.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
💎DEEP
🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠
Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 05:16 UTC. Nicknames aren't treated as identification.
The market's biggest loss.ETH SHORT $230.6M, leverage 5×, entry $2,263, uPnL −$18.4M, liquidation at $3,476 — 41% above spot. Account $106.6M. Over the day the position slimmed by $4M, and the loss compressed by $1.6M along with spot. The same address in BTC. SHORT $156.9M, leverage 5×, entry $72,282, uPnL −$9.8M, liquidation at $124,332 (+61%) — the dip took $2.5M off the loss over the day. A second address with the same pattern.ETH SHORT $109.6M and BTC SHORT $70.9M, both at 5× leverage, uPnL −$13.4M and −$9.6M, liquidations at $3,738 and $140,347 on a $57.1M account. Together the two addresses carry $51.2M of unrealised loss against $57.4M yesterday. The third big short was cut by a quarter.ETH SHORT $58.5M at 15× leverage, entry $2,203, uPnL −$6.1M, liquidation at $3,386 (+38%), account $26.8M — over the week the address took 5,069 ETH off the short; yesterday the position was $77.3M. The market's biggest gain.ETH LONG $49.2M, leverage only 4×, entry $1,936, uPnL +$10.5M, liquidation at $1,043 — 58% below spot, account $11.8M. Next to it a long of $74.5M at 20×, entry $2,134, uPnL +$9.8M, liquidation at $1,757. The risky side of ETH. LONG $100.0M at 25× leverage with liquidation at $2,392 — only 3% under spot against 4% yesterday, account $4.9M; the position grew a little over the day, and the buffer to liquidation is melting. Flipped — and became the riskiest in BTC. LONG $70.3M at 40× leverage, entry $77,733, uPnL −$579k, liquidation at $76,313 — one percent under spot, account $1.6M. A week ago this address stood SHORT $19.7M; in two days it flipped and grew the long fourfold. The overnight low of $76,561 passed $250 from its liquidation. No public label. New shorts on the dip. SHORT $44.1M at 20× leverage, entry $78,475, liquidation at $95,118 (+23%), account $5.5M — new this week, already +$788k. SHORT $38.5M at 30×, entry $78,300, liquidation at $79,937 (+4%), account $3.2M — yesterday it had a 2% buffer; the dip gave it +$601k and a little air. Both without a public label. Took leverage off. LONG $38.6M at 20×, entry $76,865, liquidation at $73,980 (−4%), account $2.0M — yesterday this address stood long at 40×; over the day the leverage halved and the liquidation moved away.
Block structures in the snapshot — five new cases, all from the Deribit book, all in BTC. Case #1066 · BTC call diagonal: 34 calls at $72,000 bought for today, 11.09.2026, 34 calls at $78,000 sold for 25.09.2026 — 68 contracts, entered at $76,840. Net premium about 1.31BTC paid (≈$101k): the near call is deep in the money and expensive. The biggest premium of the day; the first leg settles at 08:00 UTC. Rare.
Case #1068 · BTC call diagonal: 25 calls at $77,500 sold for 14.09.2026, 25 calls at $78,000 bought for 25.09.2026 — 50 contracts, entered at $76,840. Net premium about 0.35BTC paid (≈$27k). Rare.
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-09-14. Кит заплатив $27k премії. Беззбитковості в показаному діапазоні немає.
Case #1067 · BTC put diagonal: 25 puts at $74,000 bought for 25.09.2026, 25 puts at $76,000 sold for 14.09.2026 — 50 contracts, entered at $76,840. Net premium about 0.16BTC paid (≈$12k): September protection paid for by selling the nearer put. Rare.
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-09-14. Кит заплатив $12k премії. Беззбитковості в показаному діапазоні немає.
Case #1069 · BTC put ratio spread for 12.09.2026: 15 puts at $76,500 bought, 30 puts at $74,000 sold — 45 contracts, net premium about 0.09BTC paid (≈$7k). It gains on a moderate decline; a crash under $74,000 turns into a loss. Rare.
Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-09-12. Кит заплатив $7k премії. Беззбитковість: $71 938 і $76 062.
Case #1065 · BTC call ratio spread for 30.10.2026: 25 calls at $80,000 bought, 50 calls at $86,000 sold — 75 contracts, net premium about 0.04BTC paid — the structure is almost free. It gains on a moderate climb into October; a sharp run past $86,000 turns into a loss.
Closed by the code a day before settlement (at $76,840; final figures after 08:00 UTC): twelve cases expiring 11.09. Two BTC bull put spreads — #980 on 500 contracts ($69,000/$73,000) and #1031 on 200 ($66,000/$75,000) — confirmed, about +$66k and +$65k for the whale: price stayed above the sold puts. A BTC strangle sold, #1040 ($79,000/$82,000, 200 contracts) — not confirmed, about −$17k: spot went under the lower strike. BTC condor #1047 ($77,000/$80,000/$81,000/$84,000) — about −$11k. In ETH both sides lost: bear put spreads #1023 and #1024 ($2,200/$2,000 and $2,150/$2,000) — about −$26k and −$7k, ETH didn't fall under $2,200; bull call spread #1035 on 5,000 contracts ($2,650/$2,800) — about −$41k, ETH didn't climb. BTC call ratio spread #958 ($84,000/$90,000) — about −$17k, the calls stayed out of the money. The second leg of the two-day case #1062 the code closed at about +$4.6k. Still in play: #1063 BTC put diagonal (second day), #1061 BTC call ratio spread (third), #1059 BTC strangle sold at $72,000/$86,000 to 18.09 (fourth day, spot 7% from the lower strike), #948ETH condor at $1,700/$1,900/$2,800/$3,000 to 25.09 (seventeenth day), #546ETH strangle at $1,000/$4,000 to 25.06.2027 (sixty-eighth day). ΔOI over the week, both ways:BTC+9,696 calls at $81,000 (91% in 11.09 and 12.09), +1,978 calls at $78,000 and +1,968 puts at $72,000 (75% in 18.09 and 25.09). ETH: +9,840 puts at $2,300 (70% for 30.10), +9,798 puts at $2,420 (81% in 11.09 and 12.09) and +8,542 puts at $2,200.
🔬Who exactly
Both of the biggest shorts are Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): two addresses of one house, ETH and BTC on each. Over the day the house trimmed ETH slightly; together $51.2M of unrealised loss against $57.4M yesterday — the dip is working for it.
The third big ETH short is Fasanara Capital: $58.5M, 15× leverage, uPnL −$6.1M on a $26.8M account; over the week it took 5,069 ETH off the short — a quarter of the position.
The risky 25× ETH long with a 3% buffer is Machi Big Brother.
The $70.3MBTC long at 40×, one percent from liquidation, is an address without a public label that stood short two days ago. Yesterday's long "MoonpathCliff" and short "DoshiAtoll" dropped out of the top six.
Money by address. A whale from the registry topped up margin: over the week the Fasanara Capital address brought in $26.7M USDC in seven tranches — two of $5.0M, one of $4.0M, one of $3.7M and three of $3.0M, the last $4.0M within the past day — and in parallel cut a quarter of its ETH short. Another address from the players' registry, with no public label, holds $7.0M in two tranches. The coin channel keeps handing BTC to Wintermute in $2.8–2.9M tranches — nine in a week now, two of them in the past day, one of those to an exchange address; BTC worth $4.21M came back in via Binance.
🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬
Perps.BTC: net $230M short (long $235M against short $465M); over 7 days an $86M shift toward long, $74M of it in the last day: the whales were building longs all the way through the overnight dip. ETH: net $251M short (long $282M against $533M); $38M toward short over 7 days, but $65M toward long over the day — a reversal inside the window, the short cut from $623M.
Gamma flip.BTC$71,460 — up 3,178 over the week, while the put wall came down 2,500 to $76,000. ETH$2,338 — up 13 (what the flip is). When the flip and the walls creep after the price, the market makers are giving up the level; when they stand still, the level is real.
The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is negative: IV39.7 against realised HV 40.6, compressed by 0.8 over 7 days. The market moved more over the day than the book had priced in.
Calendar. The nearest expiry, 11.09, moved its max pain point by +1,000 over the week — the flow is dragging the consensus up despite the slip in spot.
Changing of the guard. Over the week the whales assembled 83 confirmed structures: 26 bullish, 13 bearish, 14 on volatility, 30 on range — against 139 yesterday: today's expiry took almost half away. The biggest — a straddle on 1,000 ETH. Among the rest the bullish lean prevails — 26 against 13.
🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠
BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book. The market-maker break-even corridor widened and slid: $75,000–$79,500 against $78,000–$80,000 yesterday — by our study across 374 expiries price stays inside such a corridor in roughly 82% of cases (what the corridor is). Below, a put wall at $76,000 on 3,958 contracts against $77,500 on 381 yesterday — the floor dropped fifteen hundred and grew ten times thicker (what the walls are). Above, the $81,000 call wall on 13,786 contracts is back, together with the 11.09 and 12.09 expiries. Max pain $78,000 against $79,000 yesterday (what max pain is).
ETH levels. The corridor is $2,400–$2,500 against $2,460–$2,520; max pain$2,450 against $2,500. The put wall moved out to $2,200 (44,441 contracts), the call wall to $2,800 (59,397): both walls are now far from the price, and the nearest expiries are thin.
The nearest expiry, 11.09.BTC: max pain$78,000 on the combined book of two exchanges (Deribit and Bybit — both $78,000), put $76,000 on 1,236 contracts, call $81,000 on 4,501. ETH: max pain$2,460, put $2,200 on 10,065, call $2,800 on 6,506. Settlement at 08:00 UTC.
The quarterly, 25.09.BTC: max pain$72,000, and both put and call are densest at $70,000 (8,939 and 10,958 contracts) — this expiry holds 41% of all BTCOI. ETH: max pain rose to $2,200 from $2,150; put $2,100 on 38,673, call $3,000 on 42,605.
Fuel. Below the market $156.4M of long positions in the $73,219–75,532 band against $65.1M yesterday — the long fuel grew two and a half times over the day and is now twice as heavy as the short fuel above the market ($73.3M in the $78,614–80,927 band). In ETH the long fuel under the market is $115.9M in the $2,333–2,407 band, the shorts above it $24.6M. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move.
Gamma vacuum. In BTC it's dense above spot; empty only below, at $71,000–$72,000. In ETH it's empty below at $2,300–$2,350 — right under the long-fuel band.
Stress test ±2%. At −2% ($75,582) price reaches the put wall — the densest protection, the move gets braked. At +2% ($78,667) price is still under the call ceiling — the ceiling holds the move.
OI flow.BTC put/call: month 0.57 · week 0.55 · now 0.55 — stable; ETH week 0.57 against 0.52 for the month — the ETH book has been adding puts over the week (what put/call is).
Two options books.BTC put/call 0.53 on Deribit against 1.04 on Bybit — the Bybit book got noticeably less put-heavy over the day (1.13 yesterday); ETH0.67 against 0.80. We don't know who owns the Bybit book, so this is neither "whales" nor "retail" — just a second book with a different lean.
IV by tenor.BTC 2d P39/C36 · 7d P42/C40 · 21d P39/C37, percentiles since February 45th, 50th and 36th against 65th, 53rd and 49th yesterday — the near end got cheaper fastest, despite the dip. ETH 2d P47/C45 · 7d P53/C53 · 21d P52/C52, percentiles 34th, 45th and 35th. BTCskew+1.3 — puts dearer than calls; ETH−0.2 — balanced. BTCDVOL39.3 against 30-day realised 32.8 — a premium of +6.5 against +7.4 yesterday (what the premium is).
💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠
The code's verdicts for yesterday. The overnight low of $76,561 crossed the $77,500 cancellation level, and the code cancelled four scenarios at once: both "The corridor holds" and both "Burn-up through the short fuel" from 09.09 and 10.09. The set from 08.09 had run its course earlier: "The corridor holds" — confirmed (100% of the time inside the $77,000–$81,000 band, finish $77,800); "Burn-up through the short fuel" — not, the high was $79,522 against $80,300; "Slide into the long fuel" — not, the low was $77,800 against $77,150, $650 short of it. The two "Slide into the long fuel" from 09.09 and 10.09 stay open until today and tomorrow. The week since 04.09: 21 scenarios — 4 confirmed, 1 partially, 10 not, 4 cancelled at the boundary, 2 in progress. Whole history: corridor 7 of 18 plus 3 partial, burn-up 5 of 22, slide into the long fuel 2 of 9 — the directional types run worse than a coin toss, and after tonight the corridor type is under half as well.
The corridor holds — 45%. ⏱ 2 days, to 13.09. BTC stays inside the $75,000–$79,500 band. Cancellation level: a touch of $74,500.
Burn-up through the short fuel — 27%. ⏱ 2 days, to 13.09. Trigger: a touch of $78,600 — the bottom of the band holding the short positions. Cancellation level: a touch of $74,500.
Slide into the long fuel — 28%. ⏱ 2 days, to 13.09. Trigger: a touch of $75,550 — the top of the long-fuel band, under the put wall. Cancellation level: a touch of $78,600.
This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.
🔭WHAT TO WATCH
• The $76,000 put wall on 3,958 contracts — ten times thicker over the day and a percent and a half under spot: the first level where the dealers again have something to hedge from below (💠).
• The $70.3MBTC long at 40× with liquidation at $76,313 — one percent under spot and $250 from the overnight low: the first candidate for a forced closure if the dip repeats (🔬).
• BTC long fuel of $156.4M in the $73,219–75,532 band — up two and a half times over the day; its top is the slide trigger (🔬).
🆓TAIL
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel(standing position, real prices)
+$0 on the day · +$9,956 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 395%−$1,125+$90,719 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 329%−$1,125+$35,906 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 2544%+$58+$13,765 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 3837%+$315+$11,762 26.05
Fear Flash V2 2232%−$418+$3,023 16.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$8,578 · Wheel Trail V6 −$7,565 · Wheel Trail V7 −$5,944 — three variants of one signal hunt a reversal and pay for every attempt while the trend continues. One trade closed over the day — Volatility Convergence V3, +$58, and the signal's win rate edged up from 42% to 44%. The most profitable signal — Dust Strategy V2 — wins only 5% of its 39 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 374 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor held the settlement price 305 times — 82%. Yesterday's 10.09 expiry held in both assets, and today's BTC corridor widened to $75,000–$79,500 after the overnight dip. Decision: we lean on the corridor, knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. An exact match with the settlement in only 34% of those same 374 expiries. Yesterday BTC didn't match, parting from it by 1.3% ($78,011 against $79,000); ETH matched ($2,468 against $2,480). Decision: we don't chase max pain — it's a landmark of the niche, not a magnet.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 49% of expiries, the put wall in 42%: roughly a coin toss. Yesterday's $77,500 put wall on 381 contracts let the price through overnight — a thin wall, as we wrote, isn't a level. Decision: a wall without an expiry and a contract count isn't a level to us; with them, it's only the place where dealer hedging brakes a move — it doesn't stop it.
Whale structures by type (our Deribit registry, 719 closed cases). Condor: 36 closed, 69% matched by strikes, yet −$126k in total — today's #1047 added about −$11k. Risk reversal: 68 closed, 56% matched, −$1.84M in total. Bull call spread: 29 closed, 41% matched, +$419k in total — today's #1035 in ETH took about $41k off. All closed cases together: −$5.9M for the whales. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$9,956 since 11.05, at $0 on the day for the fourth day running — no positions in the market. The Dust Strategy: 71 trades, 7% winners, +$126,625 in total, and the 30-day losing streak continues. The Wheel Trail: three variants in the bottom three, −$22.6k across 161 trades at 32% winners for all variants together. Decision: we publish both tallies daily with the same denominator; we keep the Dust for the money despite its win rate, and the Wheel Trail is the first thing we look at in every review.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 82 out of 100. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself.BTC two-day vol — 45th percentile of the hourly history since February, weekly — 50th, three-week — 36th: right in the middle of the range, with the far end cheaper than in most hours on record.
• Which way protection tilts.BTCskew+1.3: puts are dearer than calls — the market pays extra for protection against a fall, not for the upside; the first number after four days without data from the source. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.