Report archive · 13.08.2026
Case No. 20260813 · 13.08.2026
Case № 20260813 · 13.08.2026 11:47 UTC · BTC $63,409 / ETH $1,879
analysis: Fable 5 by Anthropic on our own archive
Yesterday we wrote that the last 24 hours leaned long in both coins. The new day erased that: flow's gone back to short. Meanwhile the code confirmed two fresh scenarios — the exact ones we'd rated least likely. We print both; breakdown below.
Futures (Hyperliquid). The snapshot's still bearish — top-whale skew $265M short in BTC and $267M short in ETH — but the pace matters more than the snapshot:
• BTC — $148M shifted into short over the week, another $27M the same way in the last day: an even stride, the bearish position's being built without hurry.
• ETH — the weekly window still shows $26M into long, but the last day flipped the flow: $27M back to short. A reversal inside a reversal — no daily move this week has lived past a day.
• Overleveraged whales now count 60 against 58 a day ago, one close to a margin call — a bit more dry fuel under the market.
Options (Deribit). Two separate positions, as always.
• Quiet accumulation — still bullish and still in small lots off the blocks: BTC added +5,692 calls at $65,500 over 7 days plus +3,538 calls at $70,000 with a September core.
• ETH is building the range from both edges: +28,243 calls at $2,000 on top, mirrored by +14,944 puts at $1,700 below — and those puts sit almost entirely inside the next two weeks.
• Off-block structures — the detector confirmed only 5 in 7 days: 3 on volatility · 1 bearish · 1 on range; the biggest — a condor sold on 3,000 ETH. Big blocks barely trade right now.
• Fresh blocks of the day: in BTC, three identical call purchases exactly at the quiet-accumulation strike; in ETH — a sold strangle and a four-leg financed entry (legs, sizes and dates — in the paid part).
Money (the Hyperliquid border). Two channels, and their directions differ again.
• Cash (the bridge, USDC only): net outflow around $10M for the week. One main destination: $26.1M went in eight tranches to Coinbase deposit addresses, another $1.5M to OKX; the rest to player wallets and addresses with no public label.
• Coins (the Unit spot border): BTC keeps leaving — $29.7M out against $8.5M in, and almost all of it was again one market maker's hand (who exactly — in the paid part). SOL, by contrast, arrives conveyor-style: $9.4M of inflows, all from Binance. ETH's in and out are balanced.
The classic index prints 52 out of 100: dead middle of the transition zone, still creeping upward (49.5 yesterday). The classic looks 90 days back; our barometer tracks where money's going now:
• Alts hold 41% of open interest ($3.59B of $8.79B across 245 Bybit perps) — the share's barely moved.
• The day's most visible change: hot funding has cooled — alt longs now pay more than bitcoin longs on just 2.8% of alt volume, against 53% a day earlier. The alt-long overheat deflated in a day.
• Retail in the top-10 alts — 67.6% of accounts long (XRP 79.6 · DOGE 77.3 · SOL 71.1).
• Hyperliquid whales hold $581M in alts — and only 24.2% of that money is long; the gap to retail is about 43 pp — heads against money.
• What they actually hold: HYPE $256M (23% long) · SOL $54M (6%) · ZEC $36M (50%) · XRP $32M (26%) — ZEC is the only alt near balance here.
Whales on Hyperliquid are structurally short, so the signal isn't the short itself but the CHANGE in this gap; we journal it daily.
Continuation ⟳. The frame's the same as all week: perp whales bearish, options quietly building a range with a bullish top from both edges, and the volatility witnesses saying "no move is priced in". What's new isn't direction — it's how fast daily moves die: second day running, yesterday's flow hasn't lived to see today. This is a tug-of-war without a winner; whichever side confirms with volume first resolves it.
Forecast counter. The code closed two verdicts today — both confirmed; three more scenarios remain open. Details in the review below.
What this does NOT mean. It's not an invitation to buy or sell. Fuel above the market is terrain, not timing: it only fires if price itself reaches the liquidation zones. Cheap protection doesn't make a move free and doesn't promise one will come. And the whale short skew isn't prophecy: the market's biggest ETH short sits in a deep paper loss and still stands.
signal trades win last total since Dust Strategy V2 33 6% −$1,125 +$97,469 21.03 Dust Strategy V1 27 11% −$1,125 +$41,531 20.03 Volatility Convergence V3 15 47% −$195 +$8,248 26.05 Skew 2.0 V2 27 37% −$191 +$3,952 26.05 Volatility Convergence V2 20 40% −$678 +$1,678 16.05
The latest trade in all five is a loss — and that's the honest price of a lull: both Dust Strategies live off rare crashes, so dozens of small losses are the ticket price; Convergence and Skew wait for a move the market hasn't delivered in weeks. Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$4,962 · Skew 2.0 V3 −$4,219 · Fear Flash V1 −$4,078 — the same lack of amplitude this whole report is about.
The most profitable signal — Dust Strategy V2 — wins only 6% of its trades. Winrate isn't money — which is why we print both columns.
🔒 In today's full RADAR (positions — Hyperliquid, structures — Deribit, transfers — the bridge and the Unit spot border): two shorts at maximum leverage whose liquidation lines sit closer than the short fuel starts · the table's biggest loss and who's enduring it · the market maker who again carried out nearly all of the week's BTC · three identical call blocks exactly at the quiet-accumulation strike.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/agent · 3 days free
💎DEEP
The maximum-leverage duel — BTC.
◦ "DoshiAtoll" — a $135.9M short at 40×, entry $63,852, liquidation $64,596, paper gain $508k; he's held the same side for over a week and added again in the last day. The account holds $3.8M — the position is ~36 times his own money.
◦ a wallet with no public label — a fresh $89.8M short at 40×: the position didn't exist a week ago; paper gain $403k, liquidation $64,135 — the nearest line at the table.
◦ "WelcomingTatsuya" — a $76.3M short at 20×, up $965k, liquidation $66,050 (+4%); beside it, an unnamed $51.3M short with nearly the same line.
◦ against them, "bowen1476" — a $95.4M long at 40×, entry $63,791, down $265k, liquidation $61,830 (−3%); a week ago he stood on the opposite side.
The day's key detail: the liquidation lines of the two biggest shorts ($64,135 and $64,596) sit BELOW where the main short-fuel band on the cascade map begins ($64,881). The first forced closes can fire before the band itself ignites — the chain's gotten shorter.
The table's biggest pain. An ETH short of $94.2M at 3× leverage, entered at $1,700 — the worst result among the top whales:
◦ paper loss $9.16M · liquidation +16% away from market
◦ the owner isn't cutting and isn't adding — time's working for his patience, not toward a margin call
◦ by our saved Arkham snapshot, this is pension-usdt.eth
The bearish ETH camp keeps adding.
◦ Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds) — a $47.1M short at 5×, down $129k; added 1,856 ETH in a day — didn't reverse the thesis, paid more for it.
◦ Fasanara Capital — a $52.1M short at 15×, entry $1,881, down only $51k; liquidation far away, at +27%.
◦ the wallet "Bennett" — a $35.8M short at 3× carrying a $1.79M loss — the table's second-deepest pain.
◦ Wintermute — a $27.0M short at 15× (up $39k), added 2,126 ETH in a day; for a market maker that's inventory, not a view on price.
◦ against them all — the "AllegraSeam" long of $37.6M at 4×: new inside the weekly window, down $76k so far, liquidation far away (−53%).
Wintermute: the second hand at the border. Through the Unit spot border, the same market maker:
◦ BTC — carried out $25.7M in eight tranches this week against $4.2M of his own inflow: that's nearly all of the week's coin outflow from the free part (another $3.3M of BTC went to Gate).
◦ ETH — two-way traffic: $7.9M out against $2.0M of his own inflow, while another $7.5M of ETH arrived from Binance over the week.
◦ inventory rotation — but the direction's held for a second week: BTC rides off the table, ETH and SOL keep arriving.
Who's earned. The table's biggest paper gain is an ETH short held for over a week (self-tag "BirchCapricious"):
◦ $8.5M size at 20× · entry $2,122 · +$1.08M on paper
It isn't the biggest size that earns — the best entry does.
Structures with dates (Deribit).
◦ BTC, 15.08 — three identical blocks of 1,000 calls each at $65,500: 3,000 contracts in total, bought exactly at the strike where the quiet accumulation ran all week. A straight upside position with a two-day deadline — the day's most aggressive buy.
◦ ETH, 16.08 — a strangle sold on 2,000 contracts: 1,000 calls at $1,960 and 1,000 puts at $1,820 sold — money on quiet through Sunday.
◦ ETH, 14.08 — a four-leg financed entry on 1,600 contracts: bought 400 calls at $1,940 and 400 puts at $1,820, sold 400 puts at $1,860 and 400 calls at $1,900 — a position for a strong move either way, paid for by the sold center.
◦ ETH, 30.10 — 500 calls bought at $2,400: cheap, distant upside — the long horizon keeps getting collected.
◦ Quiet accumulation of the day: someone methodically bought the ETH $2,050 call expiring 28.08 — 3,056 contracts across 22 trades, 99% one-way.
The tape didn't disclose net premium on these blocks: we publish legs, sizes and dates — no invented numbers.
Case journal — with a denominator. No case resolved in the last day. The most recent closes:
◦ №924 in BTC (whale ≈ +$370) and №914 in ETH (whale ≈ +$18k) — both in profit.
◦ two more exited early on 07.08 — the №726 condor and the №785 strangle, both BTC: both structures were dismantled on falling OI without a notable price move.
Two big ones in play, both ETH:
◦ №546 — a strangle $1,000/$4,000 on 7,500 contracts, expiry 25.06.2027;
◦ №898 — a call diagonal $2,400/$2,800 on 4,500 contracts, expiry 25.09.2026.
3-day dynamics (a shorter window than the free part). BTC: $128M shifted into short — nearly the whole weekly move happened in the last three days: positioning accelerated inside the week. ETH: only $5M into long over 3 days — on the short window, the weekly "turn to long" is already almost erased.
Fragility in detail. $1.03B of position size runs at 8× leverage or higher, and 68% of that volume is short. Vol, meanwhile, sits in its bottom percentiles: the fuel's there, and the market isn't paying for cascade risk — that's what a market that doesn't believe in its own sharp move looks like.
Liquidations in motion (OKX, BTC/ETH swaps). $511k in 24 hours against $1.7M for the week, and the side flipped: the last day mostly knocked out shorts (60%), while over 3 and 7 days it was mostly longs burning. The tail of a cascade has historically marked reversals, but in our series that's UNPROVEN — an observation, not a signal.
Gamma flip (Deribit book).
◦ BTC — $63,053, down 123 over 7 days; spot stands just 0.6% above the flip: the MM regime-change zone is within an ordinary daily move.
◦ ETH — $1,857, practically in place (−12 on the week).
Dealer stress test (±2%).
◦ BTC: the step down ($62,323) breaks through the flip — the regime turns negative and dealers start amplifying the fall; the step up ($64,867) stays under the band of freshly built $65,500 calls.
◦ ETH: the step down ($1,844) breaks its flip too — negative regime there as well; the step up ($1,919) stays under the call wall. The asymmetry's identical in both coins: two percent down changes the dealers' regime, two percent up doesn't. This is about the MM regime, not the odds of a direction.
Walls and levels (all expiries aggregated, Deribit).
◦ BTC: MM breakeven corridor $62,500–65,500 (price holds inside it ~80% of the time per our own study) · max pain $64,000 — a weak magnet, debunked across 318 expiries · put wall $60,000 (17,593 contracts) · call wall $68,000 (7,932 contracts, with 4,500 coming off it in 7 days)
◦ ETH: put wall $1,750 (36,008) · call wall $1,950 (24,527) · max pain $1,900
The BTC call wall's being dismantled faster than it's rebuilt: the top's now held by freshly stacked calls lower down, not by the old contracts.
Tomorrow's expiry, 14.08.
◦ BTC: max pain $64,000 · put $60,000 (2,754) · call $68,000 (2,600) — walls far from price; this expiry decides little.
◦ ETH: max pain $1,900 · put $1,750 (11,311) · call $1,950 (11,524) — here the book is dense: about 11k contracts on either side of price.
Where the big interest lives. BTC: September — 32% of all OI (core $70,000), December — 29% (core $80,000). ETH: December — 30% (core $3,200), September — 30% (core $2,000). The big interest stands far overhead; the near fight is decided by small size — which is why a daily lull doesn't contradict the book's bullish horizon.
IV by tenor (how much volatility is priced for 2/7/30 days; percentiles against our hourly archive since February)
◦ BTC: 2d 25.4 (7th percentile) · 7d 27.9 · 30d 32.8 (4th)
◦ ETH: 2d 36.4 (9th) · 7d 41.0 (3rd) · 30d 46.3 (5th)
Cheap on every tenor at once — a rare picture: usually at least one tenor turns expensive first.
The price of fear (VRP).
◦ premium +7.4 points · implied 35.2 against realized 27.8 · up 3.3 on the week
Implied has pulled away from realized even while sitting near the floor of its own history. The usual volatility-seller regime, not an anomaly.
OI flow (Put/Call: month · week · now).
◦ BTC: 0.55 · 0.52 · 0.55 — a stably call-heavy book
◦ ETH: 0.56 · 0.53 · 0.52 — fewer puts bought per call
Cascade map in prices (Hyperliquid).
◦ BTC: long fuel lies at $60,429–62,337, short fuel at $64,881–66,789; between them sit both the MM corridor and max pain.
◦ ETH: only $10.9M of fuel below the market at $1,791–1,847, and the $1,923–1,979 band above holds zero: nothing for price to trip over on the way to the call wall.
◦ The second void is already in the Deribit book: an ETH gamma vacuum at $1,750–1,800 under the put wall, where MM hedging is absent — a break lower accelerates if price gets there.
1. The corridor holds. ⏱ 2 days, to 15.08 · odds 45%. BTC stays inside the MM corridor $62,500–65,500: volatility sellers keep eating the clock, the book's paid most for range, and the whales' daily moves have died two days running without producing a trend. Cancellation line: a touch of $62,323 — the level where the stress test flips the MM regime.
2. Squeeze up into the short fuel. ⏱ 2 days, to 15.08 · odds 30%. Price touches $64,881 — the start of the main short-fuel band; the liquidation lines of the two biggest shorts stand even closer, so the first touch can start the chain. Cancellation line: a touch of the gamma flip at $63,053.
3. Drift below the gamma flip. ⏱ 2 days, to 15.08 · odds 25%. Price touches $63,053 — and the market makers' regime changes first; this scenario just confirmed on the previous window, and spot stands closer to the flip than to the fuel. Cancellation line: a touch of $65,500.
A system's decision journal, not investment advice. Trading derivatives carries a high risk of loss.
Radar is assembled automatically from live Deribit / Hyperliquid / OKX data · time-stamped snapshot. A journal of the system's decisions, not investment advice. © 2026 INDICIA DESK.