Why is Bitcoin down or up today? A daily letter on BTC and ETH
One email every morning, with the week in review on Sunday: why Bitcoin moved in the past day, where the whales and the crowd are positioned and which prices to watch today. We go through the data from five exchanges, US markets and the news; you read one letter.
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Doing this yourself means a dozen tabs across exchanges and sites. The letter puts it into one text you can read on your phone.
Plus: forced liquidations on OKX every 10 minutes, funding, crypto ETF flows, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures, the dollar index, the US economic calendar and the odds for the next Fed decision. And Polymarket bets: on the BTC and ETH price, on US reports and on the Fed.
Counts for the morning of 6 November 2026. They change a little every day.
The main sections come in the same order every day, under these names.
Here's how it reads: the start of the letter for 6 November 2026
Why is Bitcoin down today: 5.9% in a day, with a US stock selloff among possible reasons
Bitcoin fell 5.9% in the past day, to $75,666, measured from 05:53 UTC yesterday. Its low was $75,100 at 23:10 UTC. ETH lost 8.0% over the same day.
There are several possible explanations, and none is proven. One is US stocks: over the same day S&P 500 futures fell 4.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures 4.4%. Another is forced closes of BTC longs on two futures exchanges. Among large Hyperliquid accounts we track, $15.3 million of longs were force-closed, and $3.5 million on OKX. A third: during the day CoinDesk and Cointelegraph ran stories on the Binance hack.
From the test issue sent that morning. Prices as of 05:53 UTC.
The sections above come every day. On top of them, each day one section goes deep, with a picture. On a day with a US report or a Fed decision, the event comes first.
A news site usually gives one reason, after the move. ChatGPT doesn't see where the largest Hyperliquid accounts are positioned, the Deribit options book or what we named yesterday. The letter puts all of that in one place every morning, gives a few possible reasons instead of one, and checks itself the next day.
Every day, between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC: 7 to 8 am in London in winter, so it's waiting in your inbox when US traders wake up. The odds in the letter are for the hours up to 08:00 UTC.
Sunday: the week in review for every subscriber, the free letters included: what held up from the week's letters and what didn't.
Want it at another time? Write to us and we'll agree it with you one to one: when the letter arrives and which hours its odds cover.
If we ever miss an issue, the next letter says so and we add a day to your subscription.
Each morning the letter names a few prices. The next morning its Yesterday section says which were hit and which weren't, and keeps a running score since 4 November 2026. Once you pay, the whole archive, yesterday's letter included, opens at your own link. After 7 days every letter goes into the open archive.
Past results do not guarantee future ones.
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INDICIA DESK keeps a decision journal on crypto derivatives: what we said, and whether it held.
Each letter is written in the morning with an AI model from our data: Deribit, Hyperliquid, Bybit, Binance and OKX, plus US stock futures, the dollar and crypto news headlines. Software then checks every number against that data: if a number isn't in it, the letter doesn't go out. Questions: [email protected].
There is rarely one proven reason. Every morning the letter lines up the move against what happened over the same day: US stocks, the dollar, forced liquidations, big news. It gives two or three possible explanations, each with its source. Subscribers get it in the morning; after 7 days each letter goes into the open archive.
Every day between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC. On Sunday it is the week in review. If another time suits you better, write to [email protected] and we'll agree the time and the hours the odds cover.
It's a separate piece: shorter and written fresh each morning. Subscribers get it first; after 7 days it goes into the open archive. Once you pay, every letter, yesterday's included, is at the link in each email.
In English. The same letter also comes in Spanish, Brazilian Portuguese, Russian and Ukrainian.
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