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Indicia Desk / Letter

Why is Bitcoin down or up today? A daily letter on BTC and ETH

Know the BTC and ETH market before your first coffee.

One email every morning, with the week in review on Sunday: why Bitcoin moved in the past day, where the whales and the crowd are positioned and which prices to watch today. We go through the data from five exchanges, US markets and the news; you read one letter.

50 cents a dayA small add-on to your coffee. The first 7 letters are free.

Why price moved. A few possible explanations from the data: US stocks, the dollar, forced liquidations, the news. Each comes with its source, and none is sold as proven.
Whales on options and futures. Big Deribit option trades and the largest Hyperliquid accounts: what they opened, what they closed and at what price the exchange would force them out.
Today's prices. Where the biggest option positions sit, and how big a move options are priced for today.
Yesterday, checked. Next morning the letter says which of the prices it named were hit and which weren't.
You tell us what to add. Missing something? Write to [email protected] or reply to any letter. We talk it over as a team and add it if the data has it.

We'll send a link to confirm your address, then seven letters for free. After that it's your call: 15 USDT a month, or nothing. No card, no auto-charge. Unsubscribe from any letter in one click.

What we analyze every morning while you sleep

Doing this yourself means a dozen tabs across exchanges and sites. The letter puts it into one text you can read on your phone.

1,758BTC and ETH options on Deribit: every price and every expiry date. That's where the odds, the day's range and the prices with the biggest positions come from.
19,279option trades in a day, 184 of them big block trades. That's how we see what the whales did on options.
256large Hyperliquid accounts, a snapshot every 30 minutes: who opened, who closed and at what price the exchange would force them out.
72crypto news headlines in a day from CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, The Block and Decrypt.
365days of history to compare against: how many ordinary Bybit accounts are long, and how big a move options price in.

Plus: forced liquidations on OKX every 10 minutes, funding, crypto ETF flows, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures, the dollar index, the US economic calendar and the odds for the next Fed decision. And Polymarket bets: on the BTC and ETH price, on US reports and on the Fed.

Counts for the morning of 6 November 2026. They change a little every day.

What's in it every morning

The main sections come in the same order every day, under these names.

In briefWhy Bitcoin moved over the past day: a few possible explanations from the data, each with its source. What's on today's calendar and how big a move options are priced for.
Whales and the crowdWhat the big futures and options accounts did in a day, next to the share of ordinary Bybit and Binance accounts that are long. Plus a line on what that doesn't tell you.
Today's mapThe prices where the biggest option positions sit, with a picture. Where price stands against its 50- and 200-day averages.
Options expiring at 08:00Before the Friday expiry: how much is expiring on Deribit and the price range where the sellers of those options come out ahead.
What we will checkTwo prices where the exchange would force-close a whale (a large account) if BTC gets there, and the odds of getting there that option prices imply.
ETHThe same, briefly, for Ether.
CalendarReports and events that can move the market, such as US jobs, inflation and Fed meetings, with what economists expect.
YesterdayWhich of yesterday's prices were hit and which weren't, and the running score since the first issue.

Here's how it reads: the start of the letter for 6 November 2026

Why is Bitcoin down today: 5.9% in a day, with a US stock selloff among possible reasons

Bitcoin fell 5.9% in the past day, to $75,666, measured from 05:53 UTC yesterday. Its low was $75,100 at 23:10 UTC. ETH lost 8.0% over the same day.

There are several possible explanations, and none is proven. One is US stocks: over the same day S&P 500 futures fell 4.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures 4.4%. Another is forced closes of BTC longs on two futures exchanges. Among large Hyperliquid accounts we track, $15.3 million of longs were force-closed, and $3.5 million on OKX. A third: during the day CoinDesk and Cointelegraph ran stories on the Binance hack.

From the test issue sent that morning. Prices as of 05:53 UTC.

What each day adds

The sections above come every day. On top of them, each day one section goes deep, with a picture. On a day with a US report or a Fed decision, the event comes first.

MondayThe weekend and the week ahead: what moved over two days, which US reports and Fed events are coming, what economists expect and what the bets say.
TuesdayWhat's priced into options: how big a move options price in for different dates, and the largest trades.
WednesdayWhales and the crowd in depth: big-account positions and the retail long share against the past year, what changed over the week, where forced liquidations cluster.
ThursdayBefore the Friday expiry: how much expires, the range where option sellers come out ahead, and Polymarket bets next to option prices.
FridayOptions expire at 08:00 UTC, so the letter comes before that. What positions whales and the crowd take into the weekend.
SaturdayThe chart in depth: moving averages, momentum, chart levels, and where they line up with option and whale positions.
SundayThe week in review: what held up from the week's letters and what didn't, whales and the crowd over the week, ETF flows, the weekly chart and next week's calendar.

Why not just read the news or ask ChatGPT?

A news site usually gives one reason, after the move. ChatGPT doesn't see where the largest Hyperliquid accounts are positioned, the Deribit options book or what we named yesterday. The letter puts all of that in one place every morning, gives a few possible reasons instead of one, and checks itself the next day.

When it arrives

Every day, between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC: 7 to 8 am in London in winter, so it's waiting in your inbox when US traders wake up. The odds in the letter are for the hours up to 08:00 UTC.

Sunday: the week in review for every subscriber, the free letters included: what held up from the week's letters and what didn't.

Want it at another time? Write to us and we'll agree it with you one to one: when the letter arrives and which hours its odds cover.

If we ever miss an issue, the next letter says so and we add a day to your subscription.

How the letter checks itself

Each morning the letter names a few prices. The next morning its Yesterday section says which were hit and which weren't, and keeps a running score since 4 November 2026. Once you pay, the whole archive, yesterday's letter included, opens at your own link. After 7 days every letter goes into the open archive.

Past results do not guarantee future ones.

How it works

Two minutes to sign up. Nothing to install.

1

Drop your email

Confirm it with the link we send.

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2

Seven free letters

Each one checks what the one before it named.

Free, 7 letters
3

Decide

After the seventh you get one email with the price. Pay in our Telegram bot and the letters keep coming. Do nothing and they stop.

15 USDT a month

Pricing

15 USDT a month works out to 0.50 a day.

Morning letterfirst 7 letters free
15 USDTa month
Every morning in your inbox, with the week in review on Sunday.
Paying. USDT or USDC through our Telegram bot, @whalewatch_brief_bot.
No auto-renewal. We email you once before your term ends. Don't pay again and the letters simply stop.

What it isn't

Trade signals or entries.
Our forecast. The odds in it come from option prices, not from us.
A promise of returns. The letter describes the market; the decision is yours.
Altcoins. BTC and ETH only.
A live feed. One letter, in the morning. For live whale alerts, there's Whale Watch.

Who's behind it

INDICIA DESK keeps a decision journal on crypto derivatives: what we said, and whether it held.

Each letter is written in the morning with an AI model from our data: Deribit, Hyperliquid, Bybit, Binance and OKX, plus US stock futures, the dollar and crypto news headlines. Software then checks every number against that data: if a number isn't in it, the letter doesn't go out. Questions: [email protected].

Questions

Why is Bitcoin down today?

There is rarely one proven reason. Every morning the letter lines up the move against what happened over the same day: US stocks, the dollar, forced liquidations, big news. It gives two or three possible explanations, each with its source. Subscribers get it in the morning; after 7 days each letter goes into the open archive.

When does it land?

Every day between 07:00 and 08:00 UTC. On Sunday it is the week in review. If another time suits you better, write to [email protected] and we'll agree the time and the hours the odds cover.

How is it different from the radar on the site?

It's a separate piece: shorter and written fresh each morning. Subscribers get it first; after 7 days it goes into the open archive. Once you pay, every letter, yesterday's included, is at the link in each email.

What languages?

In English. The same letter also comes in Spanish, Brazilian Portuguese, Russian and Ukrainian.

Can I ask for something to be added?

Yes. Write to [email protected] or just reply to any letter.

How do I cancel?

Every letter has a one-click unsubscribe link. A paid term just runs out.

Is this investment advice?

No. Every subscriber gets the same letter. It doesn't know your positions and doesn't tell you what to trade. We don't answer questions about personal trades.

What happens to my email?

We use it only for the letters and emails about your subscription. We don't share it with anyone.

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