Case No. 20261029 · 29.10.2026
Bitcoin went up and back within a 2.7% range over the day, and in that time the exchange partially closed one whale twice: part of its short at the high, part of the long it had flipped into at the night low; at least four other big accounts meanwhile took profit at both ends.
Case No. 20261029 · 29.10.2026 06:04 UTC · BTC $80,144 / ETH $2,320 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
The daily expiry 28.10 settled at 08:00 UTC: bitcoin at $80,868, inside the market-maker corridor $78,500–81,500 fixed a day before expiry; max pain $80,000 didn't match — the settlement was 1.1% above it. Ether at $2,353, inside its corridor $2,260–2,380; max pain $2,320 didn't match either. The registry took in both — it now holds 470 expiries. No new closed cases over the day — still 889.
Of the positions yesterday's radar said to watch: the short that added again saw price touch its line as early as 08:35 UTC, and the exchange closed part of its position. The new long with the largest of the near long lines never waited for its line — it closed on its own, at a profit, before the night low.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is down 0.8%, ether 1.4%. Between the morning snapshots (04:46 UTC) bitcoin travelled 2.7%: the high on the Hyperliquid perp was $81,804 at 08:36 UTC, the low $79,668 at 02:45.
• The short we've tracked since Monday the exchange partially closed at the high — the second time in three days; it closed the rest itself, made money in the evening on a long it held for two hours, and went long again — and at the night low the exchange partially closed that long too. Its line now lies 0.9% under the price.
• Big accounts took profit at both ends: a big long sold in the upper part of the range, three big shorts bought back on the decline and near the low — one of them opened a short again at once.
• The whales' short tilt by the registry barely changed — 3.6 times against 3.7: the short shrank more than the long. On the constant set of addresses the whales shifted toward long by about $13.9M over the day.
• Near fuel now sits close on both sides: within 1% above the price — $26.8M of short lines, under it — $9.7M of long lines; yesterday within 1% was empty.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳. Bitcoin funds bought five times less over the week than the week before, ether funds were selling; our fear-and-greed index is 52 against 46.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, −$120 on the day, +$6,243 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$74,969 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,799. Table at the bottom.
🔒WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas · CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses · ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer — in the full radar
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short in bitcoin: the registry's short is 3.6 times the long against 3.7 yesterday, while price is down 0.8% from yesterday's snapshot. The witnesses: the crowd and the funds stand against the whales; options, futures and stress are silent.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a new whale short: the day's shift on the constant set of addresses went toward long, and the registry's tilt shrank because shorts were being reduced — part of them the exchange force-closed at the high, part the accounts bought back at a profit on the decline — and price fell. Big high-leverage fuel now sits close on both sides — within 1% above the price $26.8M of short lines, under it $9.7M of long lines — and over the day the market has already shown how it fires in both directions. This is about the range of a move for the same push, not about direction.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• how the account of the whale the exchange partially closed over the day — out of a short, then out of a long — has changed, and where its new line now lies;
• the structure of the day — call spreads for Friday in three identical blocks: which strikes and what was paid for them.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel (the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
−$120 on the day · +$6,243 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals ($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 53 4% −$1,125 +$74,969 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 43 7% −$1,125 +$23,559 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 41 34% −$454 +$9,803 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 52 31% −$1,016 +$3,786 26.05
Fear Flash V3 12 25% −$240 +$1,526 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,799 · Wheel Trail V6 −$9,556 · Wheel Trail V7 −$8,634. Over the day no trade in the top five closed; at the bottom all three are now Wheel Trail versions: V8 and V6 deepened their loss by about $0.7k each, and V7 pushed Skew 1.0 out of the three. The Pendulum lost $120 on the day. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 53 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 470 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 385 times — 82%; yesterday's daily expiries in both coins also settled inside the corridor. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 173 of those same 470 expiries, 37%; yesterday's daily expiry matched in neither coin — after one day with a match. Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 159 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 49 of 116, 42%. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 889 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 882 with a score, −$18.91M in total for the whales; no new closed cases over the day. Case No. 1210 the code closed at the first expiry in the black, and the second leg settled at a loss — that isn't in this sum yet. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$6,243 since 11.05 with −$120 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name, on a losing day too.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 52 out of 100 against 46 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself. BTC two-day vol — 28th percentile of the hourly history since February, eight-day — 46th, 29 days out — 26th: the nearest and the monthly insurance are cheaper than usual.
• Which way protection tilts. BTC skew +3.3: puts dearer than calls, and a little more so than yesterday's +2.9 — after three days of decline. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.