Report archive · 06.10.2026

INDICIA Radar

Case No. 20261006 · 06.10.2026

A −0.4% day looks like nothing on the charton the whale tape one address spent all of it adding to a bitcoin short.

Case No. 20261006 · 06.10.2026 03:44 UTC · BTC $85,376 / ETH $2,694 · analysis: Fable 5 by Anthropic

📅YESTERDAY

Monday's expiry settled at 08:00 UTC: BTC $86,249, ETH $2,724. The max pain fixed a day before expiry was $85,000 and $2,700. In ether the ledger counted a match: the settlement came in only 0.9% above. In bitcoin it didn't: the settlement was 1.5% above, and price went through the expiry's call wall. The market-maker break-even corridor held price in both assets. Today's Tuesday expiry settles after this snapshot.

The case registry took in no new cases; the closed tally stands at 871.

⚡THE GIST

• Bitcoin lost 0.4% over the day, to $85,376. A quiet day: OKX swaps liquidated only $75k, mostly longs, against $584k of shorts the day before.

• The bitcoin whales widened their short tilt by about $39M over the day — and the measurement an hour earlier gives almost the same, so the direction holds. The biggest contribution came from one of the registry's two largest short addresses: it added to its short in tranches all day long.

• Ether: the whales narrowed their short tilt by about $17M, and the measurement an hour earlier gives $28M. The shift toward long shows in both windows — but the whales' ether short is still 1.8 times their long.

• The funds: Monday's numbers aren't in yet; on Friday $190M went into the BTC ETFs, while the ETH funds posted a fourth straight outflow.

• Verdict — continuation ⟳: in bitcoin the whales are adding to the short; in ether they're shifting toward long slowly and from a large short.

• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, +$389 on the day, +$10,475 in total since 11.05.

• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$81,719 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,296. Table at the bottom.

🐋WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas

Arena one — Hyperliquid futures. We measure the day's change on a constant set of addresses (how we track whale positions) — the 145 present in both snapshots at 03:16 UTC — and count in coins.
In BTC the longs on this set added 145 BTC and the shorts 598 BTC: at the morning snapshot's price the short tilt grew by about $39M. Between the 02:16 snapshots — by about $36M.
In ETH the longs added 4,645 ETH and the shorts shrank by 1,613 ETH: the short tilt narrowed by about $17M. Between the 02:16 snapshots — by about $28M.
Across the registry — among positions with a liquidation price — the totals at the 03:44 UTC snapshot: BTC long $294.1M against a short of $657.7M, ETH $488.3M against $857.3M. The whales' long share in BTC is 30.9% against 27.3% yesterday, but on the constant set of addresses it slipped a little: the rise came from new addresses in the sample and from different snapshot times, not from a turn.
Overleveraged whales number 67, as yesterday, $1.31B of positions together against $1.24B, 68% of them longs.

Arena two — Deribit options. Over two days 47 structures were recognised in bitcoin against 23 yesterday, and 8 in ether against 9. The next heavy expiry is Friday 09.10.
Among the bitcoin ones — two large positions on a narrow corridor near the market and a pinpoint position far above it; in ether — selling volatility on a calm market and two purchases of a large move in either direction.
Quiet accumulation outside the blocks (what a block is): in ether — puts under the market for mid-October and calls far above it; in bitcoin — puts below the market and calls slightly above.

Arena three — money at the exchange border. The snapshot is fresh — up to this morning.
Over seven days $71.1M was brought into the exchange and $88.0M taken out: about $17M more was withdrawn than deposited, against $46.5M yesterday. USDC cash is now leaving almost level with what arrives: $61.6M out against $56.5M in. Bitcoin: $14.3M out against $5.9M in; ether — $5.3M against $1.4M.

This is positioning, not a direction forecast.

🧭CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses

What the funds are doing. Spot ETFs are the only camp that measures purchases of the coin itself, not a leveraged position.
Monday's numbers aren't in yet; the latest are Friday's: $189.8M went into the BTC funds, the ETH funds lost $37.4M — a fourth straight outflow.
Over the five sessions of 28.09–02.10: BTC +$241.1M against +$2.39B the week before; ETH −$138.0M against +$690M.
This camp is silent: there's no fresh data, and Friday's figures are already four days stale.

What the options market says. This camp measures one thing: what insurance costs on the Deribit book.
BTC skew +0.9 against +0.4 yesterday: puts are slightly dearer than calls (what skew is). In ETH −0.1 against +0.1 — balanced.
BTC two-day vol sits in the 25th percentile since February against the 39th yesterday; DVOL 36.1 against 36.7 (what implied vol is).
Our fear-and-greed index stands at 77 out of 100, as yesterday.
This camp is silent: insurance got cheaper again and stays cheaper than usual.

What the futures say. This camp measures who pays whom to hold a position.
BTC funding on Hyperliquid is +0.010% in eight-hour terms — the venue's base rate, as yesterday; on Binance +0.000% against +0.007% (what funding is). In ETH +0.010% and −0.001% against +0.010% and +0.010% yesterday.
This camp is silent: on Hyperliquid funding sits at the base, on Binance — near zero.

What the crowd is doing. This camp measures how retail accounts stand against the whales.
On Bybit perps 55% of BTC accounts stand long against 56% yesterday, and in ETH 67%, as yesterday.
This camp is silent: the crowd has barely moved.

Any signs of stress. This camp measures whether anyone has already been forced out of the market.
On OKX swaps $75k was liquidated over the day, three quarters of it longs, against $584k of shorts yesterday. Over seven days $3.6M was liquidated there, and the last day is only 2% of that.
This camp is silent: almost nobody was forced out of the market over the day.

Again: this is positioning, not a direction forecast.

🌡ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer

The classic altseason index is 53.6 out of 100 on a list of 211 alts against 53.4 on a list of 191 yesterday; on today's list yesterday's value is 50.7. This is the transition zone: altseason starts at 75, bitcoin season sits below 25.

Our barometer watches money, not prices: open interest, funding and retail come from Bybit perps, the whales from the Hyperliquid registry. Alts' share of open interest is 44.4% — $5.65B of $12.73B, against 43.0% yesterday.

Alt contracts with funding hotter than bitcoin's make up 76% of open interest against 81% yesterday.

Retail in the top-10 coins stands 70.2% long against 70.3% yesterday.

Whales in alts are structurally short: 31.5% long across $1.78B of positions, the biggest of them HYPE. That gap itself is permanent, the signal is in its CHANGE — over the day the whales' long share rose by about a point.

Full barometer: indiciadesk.com/en/altseason

⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY

continuation ⟳ — in bitcoin the whales added to the short over the day, and it shows in both measurement windows; in ether they're shifting toward long, but the whales' short there is still 1.8 times their long. All five witnesses are silent: the funds have no fresh data, insurance is cheap, funding sits at the base, the crowd hasn't moved, there's no stress.

What this does NOT mean. It isn't a forecast of a bitcoin fall: the day's addition is the decision of a few addresses, and almost half of it came from one of them, not from the whole market. Nor is the shift in ether a whale turn yet.

🔒In today's full RADAR:

• which of the largest shorters was adding bitcoin all day long, and where his liquidation line sits;

• which ether whale flipped long — and whose liquidation line stands right next to the price.

ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent

💎DEEP

🔒WHALES IN DETAIL 💠

Portraits from the Hyperliquid registry, snapshot 03:44 UTC; the day's change is measured between the 03:16 snapshots, in coins; individual addresses' moves come from the registry snapshots (every 30 min). Nicknames aren't treated as identification.

Who is adding to the bitcoin short. The second of the two largest short addresses added 196 BTC over the day: 1,808 BTC at 03:16 yesterday, 1,825 at 08:16, 1,922 at 12:16, 1,988 at 16:16, 2,004 BTC today. At 03:44 — BTC SHORT $171.4M, leverage 5×, average entry $75,880, uPnL −$19.3M, liquidation at $153,856 (+80%).
Three more addresses added shorts. The 30× short — from 570 to 598 BTC: BTC SHORT $51.2M from $84,859. A 25× address — from 200 to 300 BTC of short from $84,450, while holding a 10,000 ETH long: bitcoin short against ether long. One more — from 62 to 148 BTC of short at 20×, alongside a 15,900 ETH short.
Who is adding longs. Three 40× addresses each added 100 BTC over the day: from 175 to 275, from 249 to 349 and from 260 to 360 BTC; one of them also opened a 3,001 ETH long, another took its ether long from 1,637 to 3,719 ETH. An address absent from yesterday's snapshot appeared with a 250 BTC long at 20× from $85,773, liquidation at $78,963 (−7.5%).
The 40× long that was buying bitcoin yesterday trimmed it a little today — from 456 to 452 BTC, and added ether from 34,100 to 35,600 ETH: BTC LONG $38.7M from $84,927, ETH LONG $96.1M from $2,691, ether liquidation at $2,479 (−8%).
Ether: the flippers. The address that flipped short yesterday at 05:03 is long again today — 4,154 ETH at 25× from $2,728, liquidation at $2,672: about 1% under the market. Another flipped from a 6,623 ETH short into a 5,805 ETH long at 20×. A third went the other way, from a 2,000 ETH long into a 1,800 ETH short. One more holds a 7,151 ETH long at 25× against 8,768 yesterday, liquidation at $2,617 (−3%).
The market's biggest loss. ETH SHORT $282.3M, leverage 5×, entry $2,304, uPnL −$41.4M, liquidation at $4,082 (+52%).
The same address in BTC. SHORT $238.5M, entry $75,949, uPnL −$26.7M, liquidation at $137,811 (+61%).
The second address with the same pattern, in ETH. SHORT $212.4M at 5×, uPnL −$28.1M. Together the two addresses carry $115.6M of unrealised loss across BTC and ETH against $117.4M yesterday. Their $409.9M is 62% of the bitcoin short side across the registry against 65% yesterday.
Ether longs. The 10× long from $2,694 at $111.3M, liquidation at $2,525 (−6%). The market's biggest gain is ETH LONG $81.8M at 20× from $2,134, uPnL +$17.1M.

Cases in the registry — none new; notable ones of the 149 open.
Case No. 1154 · the 100 bought calls at $90,000 for 09.10 stay open.
Case No. 1153 · BTC, expiry 30.10.2026: 25 puts at $86,000 and 25 calls at $89,000 bought, 100 puts at $71,000 and 50 calls at $104,000 sold; premium ≈1.1 BTC paid. It earns only on a move beyond ~$82,100 down or ~$92,900 up; spot at $85,376 sits inside the zone where the structure is in the red.

Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-10-30. Кит заплатив $97k премії. Беззбитковість: $67 289 і $82 133 і $92 867 і $115 133.

Case No. 1143 · BTC, expiry 25.12.2026: 100 puts at $65,000 bought, 50 puts at $80,000 sold, 50 calls at $85,000 sold, 100 calls at $105,000 bought; premium ≈3.7 BTC received. Spot at $85,376 sits $376 above the sold $85,000 call.

Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-12-25. Кит отримав $307k премії. Беззбитковість: $56 149 і $73 851 і $91 149 і $118 851.

Case No. 1081 · BTC risk reversal: a synthetic short from $69,000 for 30.10.2026, premium ≈9.61 BTC received, day twenty-one. From the $75,860 entry spot has moved 12.5% against this position — yesterday it was 13.0%.

Профіль виплат на експірацію 2026-10-30. Кит отримав $729k премії. Беззбитковість: $76 290.

ΔOI over the week: ETH: +27,333 puts at $2,500 (96% of it in 16.10), +24,718 calls at $3,000 (76% in 27.11 and 30.10), +14,233 puts at $2,700. BTC: +3,735 puts at $80,000, +2,249 calls at $89,000, +2,108 puts at $81,000.

🔬Who exactly

Both of the biggest shorts are Abraxas Capital Mgmt (Heka Funds): the house's second address added 196 BTC of short over the day; the unrealised loss across BTC and ETH is $115.6M.

The 30× short that keeps building bitcoin is an address labelled Fasanara Capital: BTC SHORT $51.2M and ETH SHORT $86.9M at 25×.

Machi Big Brother is the 40× long that trimmed bitcoin and added ether: BTC LONG $38.7M, ETH LONG $96.1M.

The other addresses in this section carry no public label. Both protagonists of our investigations — the 40× bear and the refill whale — hold no positions.

Money by address. Over seven days all $5.9M of incoming bitcoin arrived from Binance addresses; $11.3M of bitcoin and $4.5M of ether went to addresses of Wintermute; $3.8M of USDC went to OKX deposit addresses.

🔒THE WEEK'S DYNAMICS 🔬

Perps on a constant set of addresses. Over 7 days on 131 addresses: BTC — $52M into the short, ETH — $14M into the short; yesterday on 133 addresses — $49M and $7M.

Gamma flip. BTC across all expiries $77,292 against $76,543 yesterday, spot 10.5% above it (what the flip is). ETH — $2,547 against $2,496 yesterday, spot 5.8% above it.

The price of fear. On the weekly window the premium is +2.6 (IV 36.2 against the actual weekly HV 33.6) against +3.2 yesterday.

Changing of the guard. Over the week the whales assembled 171 confirmed structures against 193 yesterday: 45 bullish, 49 bearish, 25 on volatility, 52 on range.

🔒CROSS-CHECK IN DETAIL 💠

BTC levels. Everything below comes from the Deribit options book unless stated otherwise. Today's Tuesday expiry — 3,071 contracts: the market-maker break-even corridor is $85,000–$87,500, spot near its lower edge (what the corridor is); max pain $86,000 on Deribit and $85,750 on Bybit and across the combined book (what max pain is); put $84,000 (518 contracts), call $86,500 (248) (what the walls are). It settles at 08:00 UTC, after this snapshot. Monday's $85,500 call wall was passed, and price settled above it.

Further down the calendar. Wednesday 07.10 — 882 contracts; Thursday 08.10 — 1,741; Friday 09.10 — 21,303, max pain $84,000; 30.10 — max pain $78,000 and a call wall at $95,000 on 24,398 contracts.

ETH levels. Today's expiry — 35,416 contracts: corridor $2,680–$2,760, spot in its lower part; max pain $2,720 on Deribit and $2,710 across the combined book; put $2,700 (6,524), call $2,720 (2,973).

Fuel. At the 03:16 UTC snapshot, under BTC within 5% of the market ($81,254–85,530) there are $13.4M of long positions against $27.0M at yesterday's 05:46 snapshot; above the market within 5% — $3.1M of shorts against $7.1M. In ETH — $33.8M of longs below the market against $30.4M, and above it no short liquidation lines at all against $16.7M yesterday. This is about the RANGE of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of that move (what the fuel map is).

Gamma vacuum. In BTC it is empty above at $92,000–$94,000 and below at $78,000–$79,000; in ETH — $2,550–$2,600 under the market.

Stress test ±2%. In BTC both directions stay in the zone where dealers dampen the move; above sits the $90,000 call wall. In ETH a 2% fall also stays in the dampening zone, while a 2% rise passes the $2,720 call wall of today's expiry.

OI flow. BTC put/call across all expiries: month 0.55 · week 0.53 · now 0.56. ETH 0.55 · 0.54 · 0.56 (what put/call is).

Two options books. On the same expiries up to 30 days ETH put/call is 0.94 on Deribit against 1.12 on Bybit; for BTC there's no comparison today.

IV by tenor. BTC 2d P29/C33 · 10d P33/C34 · 24d P35/C34, percentiles since February — 25th, 18th and 10th. ETH 2d P36/C38 · 10d P42/C44 · 24d P46/C46, percentiles 14th, 11th and 5th. ETH DVOL 48.5 against 30-day realised HV 35.9 — a premium of +12.6 (what the premium is).

💎SCENARIOS IN DETAIL 💠

The code's verdicts. From 03.10: the squeeze up through the short fuel was confirmed — a high of $86,635 on the spot series the code scores with, against the $86,300 level; the corridor — partial, price inside it 90% of the time. From 04.10 the slide was cancelled at its level — the same $86,635 high against $86,600; that same high has already touched both the trigger of the 04.10 squeeze ($86,600) and the upper edge of the 04.10 corridor — the code will score them at the deadline today at 06:23 UTC, after this snapshot. The scenarios from 05.10 run to 07.10.

The all-time tally (N counts only those that reached a verdict): squeeze up through the short fuel — 16 of 34, 11 more cancelled at their level; corridor — 17 of 36 plus 9 partial, 5 more cancelled; slide into the long fuel — 9 of 20, 15 more cancelled. The directional types are still no better than a coin toss.

The corridor holds — 50%. ⏱ 2 days, to 08.10. BTC stays within the near 2% of the market: $83,650–$87,100. Cancellation level: a touch of $81,100 — the lower edge of the five-percent zone.

Slide into the long fuel — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 08.10. Trigger: a touch of $83,650 — a break below the near 2%, into the zone where $13.4M of long liquidation lines sit under the market. Cancellation level: a touch of $87,100.

Squeeze up through the short fuel — 25%. ⏱ 2 days, to 08.10. Trigger: a touch of $87,100 — a break above the near 2%, where short liquidation lines total only $3.1M. Cancellation level: a touch of $83,650.

This is how we weigh the odds — not a promise; the code will compute the verdict from spot history.

🔭WHAT TO WATCH

• Friday 09.10 — over 21,000 contracts in bitcoin (💠).

• Whether the second address of the biggest short house keeps adding bitcoin (💠).

• Monday's fund numbers: whether the ETH funds post a fifth outflow (🔬).

🆓TAIL

📊POLYGON

(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)

⚙️Pendulum · Wheel (the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)

+$389 on the day · +$10,475 in total · since 11.05.2026

⭐ Top-5 signals ($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):

signal                    trades   win    last     total  since
Dust Strategy V2              47    4% −$1,125  +$81,719  21.03
Dust Strategy V1              37    8% −$1,125  +$30,281  20.03
Volatility Convergence V3     33   39%   −$417  +$12,809  26.05
Skew 2.0 V2                   45   36%   −$574   +$9,108  26.05
Fear Flash V2                 23   30%   −$590   +$2,432  16.05

Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,296 · Wheel Trail V6 −$9,298 · Wheel Trail V7 −$8,049 — three versions of one signal that hunts a reversal and pays for every attempt while the trend runs. One trade closed in the top five over the day: Volatility Convergence V3, −$417. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 47 trades. Win rate isn't money.

📅PUBLIC LEDGER

(computed by code at the settlement price)

The market-maker corridor. Across 424 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor held the settlement price 347 times — 82%. Monday's expiry held in both assets. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.

Max pain. An exact match with the settlement in 156 of those same 424 expiries, 37%; on Monday only ether counted. Decision: we don't chase max pain — after a run of matches bitcoin settled 1.5% above it.

The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 74 of 152 expiries where price reached it — 49%; on Monday bitcoin went through it. The put wall held in 42 of 103, 41%. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.

Whale structures. The registry: 871 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit), −$19.11M in total for the whales. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.

Polygon. Pendulum +$10,475 since 11.05 with +$389 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name.

📏Scale calibrator

• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 77 out of 100, as yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.

• Cheap or expensive for this market itself. BTC two-day vol — 25th percentile of the hourly history since February, ten-day — 18th, 24 days out — 10th: insurance is cheaper than usual on every tenor.

• Which way protection tilts. BTC skew +0.9: puts are slightly dearer than calls — yesterday +0.4. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/

Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.