Case No. 20261106 · 06.11.2026
Yesterday's bounce reversed: bitcoin lost $80,000 and then $76,700, whale shorts made money on the fall, and the longs that were added on the way down sit close to their forced-close line.
Case No. 20261106 · 06.11.2026 05:59 UTC · BTC $75,629 / ETH $2,225 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
The daily expiry 05.11 settled at 08:00 UTC above both levels the registry had fixed a day before it (by the levels of the expiry morning, as quoted in yesterday's radar, the settlement lay inside the corridors: bitcoin $75,000–80,500, ether $2,200–2,440): bitcoin at $80,332, ether at $2,414. The settlement left the market-maker corridor on the upside in both coins (bitcoin $75,000–79,500, the settlement 1.0% above it; ether $2,200–2,360, 2.3% above). Max pain (by the registry's record, Deribit) matched in neither: in bitcoin ($77,500) the settlement came 3.7% higher, in ether ($2,280) 5.9% higher. The registry of closed cases grew: 952 against 946 yesterday.
Of what yesterday's radar put on its watch list: the exchange force-closed part of the long opened overnight — at 12:39 UTC, before the slide; the short knot above $82,000 the price never touched — yesterday's high on the Hyperliquid perp was $80,775 at 07:05 UTC.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is down 5.9%, ether 8.2%. Between the Hyperliquid snapshots (05:16 UTC yesterday and today) bitcoin on the perp covered a range of 7.4% — from $80,775 to $75,189 — against 4.4% a day earlier; the price fell fastest in the afternoon: under $80,000 at 12:30 UTC, under $78,500 at 14:55, under $76,700 at 15:20. Spot sits 1.0% under the gamma flip — in the zone where market-makers' hedging no longer dampens a move but amplifies it.
• The whales played the short side: on the constant set of 123 bitcoin addresses shorts grew by 1,582 BTC with longs down 212 BTC — the tilt moved toward short by about $135.6M; yesterday it was toward long by about $51.5M. The biggest short house, which held a loss yesterday, moved into profit on the fall in both coins.
• The whale we track flipped to long yesterday afternoon, and the exchange force-closed part of that long in six steps — from 14:45 to 15:26 UTC; in the evening it went short again. The account from our investigation closed a short of hundreds of coins at a profit. The biggest long holder in the set doubled its long on the fall.
• Fuel within 2% has evened out: in bitcoin under the price sit $23.0M of longs across four positions, above it $19.4M of shorts across four; yesterday it was $17.8M and $9.6M. Within 5% the picture differs: under the price $119.3M of longs, above it the same $19.4M.
• Verdict — break ⚡: yesterday's move up didn't hold, the whales' tilt on the constant set moved toward short, and the price dropped under the gamma flip. The funds move with the whales, the crowd on Bybit stands long more strongly than yesterday, options confirm the fall, futures are silent.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, +$73 on the day, +$5,683 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$74,969 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,525. Table at the bottom.
🔒WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas · CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses · ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer — in the full radar
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
break ⚡ — yesterday's move up didn't hold: the price dropped under $80,000, then under $76,700, and the whales' tilt on the constant set moved toward short. The witnesses: the funds pull money out alongside the whales, options get dearer for protection against a fall, the crowd stands long more strongly than yesterday, futures are silent.
What this does NOT mean. A fall of 5.9% isn't proof that it continues: by the registry the bitcoin short stays 3.2 times the long, and fuel under the price is about how far a move can carry for the same push, not about a new flush being more likely.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• where the line of the biggest long, which was added to on the fall, now lies and how far the price is from it — and what happened to the accounts that held the biggest shorts;
• which call structure for Monday was bought in blocks in the evening — at which strikes, at what cost in premium and to which expiry.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel (the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
+$73 on the day · +$5,683 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals ($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 53 4% −$1,125 +$74,969 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 44 7% −$1,125 +$22,434 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 41 34% −$454 +$9,803 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 53 30% −$416 +$3,370 26.05
Before the Fed V3 4 50% +$457 +$1,556 17.06
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,525 · Skew 1.0 −$9,376 · Skew 2.0 V3 −$9,098. Over the day none of the five closed a new trade — the table is unchanged. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 53 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 486 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 398 times — 82%; the registry has already recorded both expiries of 05.11 — both left the corridor on the upside. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold — yesterday was exactly such a day.
Max pain. A match with the settlement (deviation under 1%) in 181 of those same 486 expiries, 37%; on 05.11 there was no match in bitcoin (the settlement 3.7% higher) or in ether (5.9% higher). Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 82 of 163 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 50 of 119, 42%. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 952 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 943 with a score, −$16.41M in total for the whales against −$16.58M across 937 yesterday — the six cases that were added moved this sum by plus $0.17M. 139 open against 141 yesterday. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$5,683 since 11.05 with +$73 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name, on a losing day too.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 58 out of 100 (unchanged over the day; yesterday's 50 was a stale value). We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself. BTC two-day vol — 66th percentile of the hourly history since February, seven-day — 68th, 21 days out — 57th: the nearest insurance is a little dearer than average, 21 days out it sits closer to the middle.
• Which way protection tilts. BTC skew +6.0: puts dearer than calls, and markedly dearer than yesterday (+1.9). Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.