Case No. 20261026 · 26.10.2026
The long that came in under the market yesterday in place of the one who gave up has also left on his ownand the near liquidation fuel now sits above bitcoin, not under it.
Case No. 20261026 · 26.10.2026 05:31 UTC · BTC $80,028 / ETH $2,320 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
Sunday's daily expiry 25.10 settled at 08:00 UTC: bitcoin at $80,566, inside the market-maker corridor $80,000–83,000 fixed a day before expiry, 0.7% above its lower edge; max pain $81,500 didn't match. Ether at $2,345 — right at the lower edge of its corridor $2,340–2,460, but inside it; max pain $2,400 didn't match. The registry took in both — it now holds 464 expiries. No new closed cases, still 888.
Of the positions yesterday's radar said to watch: the long that came in under the market in place of the one who gave up sold everything himself at 09:14 UTC, at a small loss — and the overnight low stopped 0.1% short of his line. The new short whose line was the nearest above the market wasn't reached, but over the day it halved its position, and its account more than halved. Among the small longs near the low the exchange again partially closed one — the same one as the day before yesterday.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is down 0.5%, ether 1.1%. Between the morning snapshots (04:46 UTC) bitcoin moved within 2.0%; the low on the Hyperliquid perp was $79,347 today at 01:46 UTC, 0.2% above yesterday's bottom. Ether fell to $2,293 at 03:54.
• The long that took the place of the one who gave up held for 15 hours and left on his own — at a loss, though in the morning he had been in profit. Under the market within 2% of the price $3.1M of long lines remain, against $31.5M yesterday.
• Above the price in the same 2% — $14.3M of short lines: the near fuel is now mostly overhead. Within 5% the sides are even — $46.9M of longs and $46.2M of shorts; the largest new line above the market belongs to the one who gave up on his long the day before yesterday: yesterday he closed his short at a profit and opened one twice as big.
• Whales in bitcoin: the registry's short is 6.7 times the long against 5.9 yesterday — because the long side shrank, not because shorts were added. The crowd on Bybit stands long, as yesterday, and the gap between it and the whales is the widest in a month of our measurement.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳. Our fear-and-greed index is 42 against 46 yesterday — it moved from the neutral zone into fear; on Deribit bitcoin saw fewer blocks, and the wave of December puts didn't continue.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, +$8 on the day, +$6,378 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$74,969 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,098. Table at the bottom.
🔒WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas · CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses · ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer — in the full radar
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short in bitcoin: the registry's short is 6.7 times the long against 5.9 yesterday, while price is down 0.5% from yesterday's snapshot. The witnesses: the crowd stands against the whales, and the gap is the widest in a month; options side with the whales, but weakly; futures and stress are silent, the funds have no data.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a forecast of a fall: the registry's shorts shrank over the day, and the tilt grew only because longs were leaving. And the near fuel now sits mostly above the price: a push up has something to pick up in the first 2%, a push down almost nothing. This is about the range of a move for the same push, not about a higher probability of a move in either direction.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• where the liquidation line now lies for the one who closed his short at a profit and opened one twice as big, and how large the account behind it is;
• the structure of the day in ether: what price for tomorrow it requires and how much it loses if ether doesn't get there.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel (the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
+$8 on the day · +$6,378 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals ($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 53 4% −$1,125 +$74,969 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 43 7% −$1,125 +$23,559 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 41 34% −$454 +$9,803 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 51 31% −$789 +$4,801 26.05
Fear Flash V3 12 25% −$240 +$1,526 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,098 · Wheel Trail V6 −$8,829 · Wheel Trail V7 −$7,744 — three versions of one signal that hunts a reversal and pays for every attempt while the trend runs. Over Sunday no trade in the top five closed, so the table is the same as yesterday; the Pendulum made $8 on the day. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 53 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 464 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 379 times — 82%; yesterday's daily expiries in both coins also settled inside the corridor, ether right at the edge. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 171 of those same 464 expiries, 37%; yesterday's daily expiry — no in bitcoin and no in ether. Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 159 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 49 of 116, 42%. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 888 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 881 with a score, −$18.92M in total for the whales. Case No. 1210 the code closed at the first expiry in the black, and the second leg settled at a loss — that isn't in this sum yet. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$6,378 since 11.05 with +$8 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 42 out of 100 against 46 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself. BTC two-day vol — 42nd percentile of the hourly history since February, four-day — 31st, 32 days out — 40th: insurance is still cheaper than usual on every tenor, but the nearest has been getting dearer for a second day running.
• Which way protection tilts. BTC skew +4.6: puts dearer than calls, a little less so than yesterday's +4.8. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.