Case No. 20261024 · 24.10.2026
Bitcoin spent the day in a 2% band and the whales' short in it still grewthe whole increase, with room to spare, came from one account; under the market, meanwhile, long fuel is 1.8 times yesterday's.
Case No. 20261024 · 24.10.2026 04:50 UTC · BTC $80,791 / ETH $2,380 · analysis: Fable 5.1 by Anthropic
📅YESTERDAY
Friday's weekly expiry 23.10 settled at 08:00 UTC: bitcoin at $81,595, inside the market-maker corridor $80,500–84,500 fixed a day before expiry; max pain by the registry, fixed at the same time, was $82,500 — 1.1% from the settlement, not a match. Yesterday's morning radar, a few hours before the expiry, showed a corridor of $81,000–83,500 and max pain at $82,000 — the registry takes what was fixed a day before. Ether settled at $2,402, also inside its corridor, $2,380–2,650, near the lower edge; max pain $2,500 — 4.1% away, not a match. Two cases closed for this expiry, both in the black by the code's count, but in one of them the sold leg stays open until today — details below (💠); closed cases in the registry now number 888.
Of the positions yesterday's radar said to watch: the 40× long with its line right under the market was closed by its owner, at a loss, a few hours before price passed that line — and it won part of the loss back on a short; the three longs bought on the dip were closed by their owners, in full or in part, also at a loss, though price never reached their lines. Ether is back above the whole-book gamma flip — not because it rose, but because the flip came down.
⚡THE GIST
• Since yesterday's morning snapshot bitcoin is down 1.0% and ether 0.7%. In between, on the Hyperliquid perp bitcoin went from $82,088 at 14:01 UTC to $80,500 at 23:11 — the whole day's range is 2%; ether's low was $2,349 at 22:53.
• The whales' bitcoin short grew over the day, but the whole increase came from one account: on the constant set of addresses shorts grew by 515 BTC, and that account alone added more than that. Without it, the rest of the whales trimmed their short slightly.
• In ether the opposite: shorts were bought back, and the tilt on the constant set moved toward long by about $26M. One account flipped for the second time in two days — this time from short to long, right at ether's low.
• Under the market long fuel is 1.8 times yesterday's: within 5% of bitcoin's price — $83.9M of long liquidation lines against $46.9M yesterday, and more than three quarters of it is two accounts that bought the dip at high leverage. Short lines above the price within the same 5% — only $3.5M.
• Verdict — continuation ⟳: the whales in bitcoin stand short and deepened it, the crowd is still long — the gap between them narrowed by just 1 point.
• 📊 Our Polygon — Pendulum: the best of four versions, −$513 on the day, +$7,528 in total since 11.05.
• 📊 Our Polygon — signals: best — Dust Strategy V2 +$74,969 at a 4% win rate · worst — Wheel Trail V8 −$10,719. Table at the bottom.
🔒WHALES: WHAT CHANGED — three arenas · CROSS-CHECK — five camps of witnesses · ALTSEASON — the classic and our barometer — in the full radar
⚖️VERDICT OF THE DAY
continuation ⟳ — the whales stand short in bitcoin and deepened it: on the constant set of addresses the short grew by 515 BTC, while price is down 1.0% from yesterday's snapshot. The witnesses: the crowd stands against the whales; stress sides with the whales, but weakly; options and futures are silent, the funds have no data.
What this does NOT mean. It isn't a forecast of a fall: almost the whole increase in the short came from one account, the rest of the whales trimmed their bitcoin short slightly, and in ether the whales were buying shorts back. The long fuel gathered under the market means a bigger range of a move down for the same push, not a higher probability of that move. And a straddle for the end of December is bought for a move in either direction.
🔒In today's full RADAR:
• the account that doubled its bitcoin short in a day — and the two longs that bought the dip at high leverage: where their lines lie;
• the structure of the day: a straddle bought twice in one day — the premium, the expiry and where it comes out in the black.
ANALYST access → indiciadesk.com/en/agent
📊POLYGON
(our own signals at real prices, not a backtest)
⚙️Pendulum · Wheel (the best of four versions, live curve on real prices)
−$513 on the day · +$7,528 in total · since 11.05.2026
⭐ Top-5 signals ($1,000 per signal; "total" is the sum of all trades, not the return on a single thousand):
signal trades win last total since
Dust Strategy V2 53 4% −$1,125 +$74,969 21.03
Dust Strategy V1 43 7% −$1,125 +$23,559 20.03
Volatility Convergence V3 41 34% −$454 +$9,803 26.05
Skew 2.0 V2 51 31% −$789 +$4,801 26.05
Fear Flash V3 11 27% −$139 +$1,766 23.05
Deepest in the red: Wheel Trail V8 −$10,719 · Wheel Trail V6 −$9,732 · Wheel Trail V7 −$8,767 — three versions of one signal that hunts a reversal and pays for every attempt while the trend runs. Over the day four trades closed in the top five, all at a loss: two each in Dust Strategy V2 and V1, −$1,125 apiece; the Pendulum lost $513 on the day. The most profitable signal wins only 4% of its 53 trades. Win rate isn't money.
📅PUBLIC LEDGER
(computed by code at the settlement price)
The market-maker corridor. Across 460 expiries since February the market-maker break-even corridor fixed a day before expiry held the settlement price 375 times — 82%. Yesterday's Friday expiry it held in both bitcoin and ether. Decision: we lean on the corridor knowing that roughly one expiry in five it doesn't hold.
Max pain. A match with the settlement in 171 of those same 460 expiries, 37%; yesterday — no in bitcoin and no in ether. Decision: we don't chase max pain.
The walls. The call wall held the settlement in 79 of 159 expiries where price reached it — 50%; the put wall in 49 of 114, 43%. Yesterday price reached neither wall. Decision: we don't publish a wall without an expiry and a contract count, nor its percentage without a base.
Whale structures. The registry: 888 closed cases (5 of them from Bybit); across the 881 with a score, −$18.92M in total for the whales. Decision: win rate isn't money, and we don't copy whale structures — we track where they stand.
Polygon. Pendulum +$7,528 since 11.05 with −$513 on the day — both numbers from one series, the live curve of the best of four versions. Decision: we publish the tally daily with the same denominator and with the version's name.
📏Scale calibrator
• What protection costs. Our fear-and-greed index — 55 out of 100 against 56 yesterday. We compute it from the price of volatility and the option skew on Deribit, not from news, which is why it diverges from the well-known index.
• Cheap or expensive for this market itself. BTC two-day vol — 6th percentile of the hourly history since February, six-day — 12th, 34 days out — 33rd: insurance is cheaper than usual on every tenor, and on the nearest it is almost the cheapest since February.
• Which way protection tilts. BTC skew +4.6: puts dearer than calls, and more so than yesterday's +3.4. Terms: indiciadesk.com/en/glossary/
Not investment advice and not a recommendation to trade. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss; INDICIA DESK is a research publisher, not an adviser licensed by MAS, the SEC or the FCA — decisions and their consequences are yours.